Friday, November 29, 2013

Markets slip lower after early gains

Dow fell back 10 with selling into the close, advancers over decliners 5-4 & NAZ jumped 15 - helped by a good day for Apple (AAPL).  The MLP index rose 1+ to the 456s & the REIT index dropped almost 3 to 265.  Junk bond funds were fractionally higher & Treasuries eased back a tad.  Oil crawled higher & gold found a few buyers.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.06%

U.S. 2-year

0.28%

U.S. 10-year

2.74%

CLG14.NYM....Crude Oil Feb 14....93.01 Up ...0.38 (0.4%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Do-Nothing Congress Dithers on Budget as Panel’s Deadline Nears

Photo:   Bloomberg

The latest attempt by Congress at crafting a budget plan is on track to end up the same way as others have in the past decade: with little or no agreement.  Negotiators have little chance of breaking this string of futility, even after the gov shutdown in Oct that cost the US economy $24B.  If they do, it’ll only be to curb automatic spending cuts, including $19B that hits the Pentagon starting in Jan.  Now budget experts, labor unions & business groups are saying enough’s enough, & questioning why politicos can’t live within their means the way ordinary Americans do & instead lurch from one budget standoff to the next.  Unlike with previous budget panels, including the failed 2011 supercommittee, there are no immediate consequences if the budget conference misses its Dec 13 deadline.  The US won’t default on its debt & the federal gov won’t shut down for lack of funding.  The committee’s lack of progress is frustrating outside groups, especially business executives, who say congressional lawmakers’ habit of governing by crisis & temporary spending bills is hurting the economy & costing jobs.  In addition, the Obamacare website remains a mess.

OPEC oil production dropped to a 2 year low in Nov, led by declines in Saudi Arabian & Nigerian output.  Output by the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decreased 245K barrels to an average 30,007K barrels a day this month from 30,252K in Oct.  The Oct total was revised lower by 369K barrels a day because of changes to the Saudi & Libyan estimates.  Saudi Arabian crude output declined 150K barrels a day to 9.65M after pumping 10M barrels a day in Sep (the most in monthly data going back to 1989).  The Oct estimate was reduced by 200K barrels a day.  Nigeria's dropped 100K barrels a day to 1.89M in Nov, the lowest level since May.  Production is often disrupted by unrest in the Niger River delta, the country’s main oil-producing region.

OPEC November Crude Production Falls to Two-Year Low in Survey


Dow wanted to set a new record, but selling into the early market close took it into the red.  It's hard to read too much into the decline.  Just one of those things.  Maybe there was nervousness about Black Friday results which should come out on Mon.  Next week, auto sales for Nov will be reported followed by the big jobs report on Fri.  Dow jumped an amazing 540 in Nov, to numerous new records.




Dow Jones Industrials

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Markets rise on hopes for Black Friday retail sales

Dow rose 53 to yet another record, advancers over decliners almost 2-1 & NAZ gained 18.  The MLP index went up 1+ to the 456s & the REIT index lost 2+ to the 265s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were a little soft.  Oil is headed for a 3rd monthly decline, the longest losing streak in almost 5 years, amid rising OPEC exports &increased supplies in the US.  Gold is flattish.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.06%

U.S. 2-year

0.29%

U.S. 10-year

2.76%

CLG14.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 14............93.19 Up ....0.56 (0.6%)

ZGZ13.CBT.....Gold 100 oz. Dec 13...1,238.50 Up ...1.50 (0.1%)








Black Friday

Photo:   Bloomberg

Shoppers were lured by the discounts to begin the shopping season yesterday.  Millions interrupted Thanksgiving celebrations to go shopping as chains opened earlier than ever to win market share in a holiday shopping season that researcher ShopperTrak predicts will be the weakest since 2009.  Millions more will hit the malls today for the annual Black Friday sales event.  Faced with smaller crowds of less confident shoppers as well as 6 fewer days between Thanksgiving & Christmas than last year, retailers are pouring on margin-eating discounts.  As many as 140M planned to shop in stores & online yesterday thru Sun, the National Retail Federation said, down from 147M last year & Black Friday will be the biggest day of the weekend, with about 97M shoppers.  Macy's (M) CEO Terry Lundgren said 15K shoppers waited to enter it Herald Square store in NY at 8PM last night, up from 11K at midnight a year earlier . Cold-weather apparel & boots were popular, he said.  “We had a lot of momentum going into the fourth quarter,” he said. 
Taubman Centers (TCO) said the parking lots at its Northlake Mall in Charlotte, North Carolina, were 90%t full by 11PM yesterday, after opening at 8PM.  But the company said there was more traffic than last year, when the shopping center opened at midnight.

U.S. Retailers Lure Shoppers With Black Friday Deals


Apple Won 76% of Japan Smartphone Sales in October, Kantar Says

Photo:   Bloomberg

Apple sold 3 of every 4 smartphones in Japan last month after the country’s largest carrier, NTI Docomo, began carrying the iPhone.  AAPL won 76% of Japanese smartphone sales last month, market researcher Kantar Worldpanel ComTech said.  Its share of smartphone sales at NTT Docomo was 61% after it began offering the iPhone for the first time, Kantar said.  Japan’s 3 wireless carriers sell iPhones after NTT Docomo, the nation’s largest, ended its holdout against the handset as it attempts to regain market share from smaller rivals which already stock the devices.  NTT Docomo had 45.7% of Japanese mobile subscribers in Oct compared with 29% for KDDI & 25.3% for SoftBank according to Bloomberg.  AAPL introduced 2 new iPhones, including a cheaper version in bright colors & an updated high-end device that NTT Docomo began selling in Japan on Sep 20.  AAPL stock has been strong & rose another 5+.

Apple Won 76% of Japan Smartphone Sales in October, Kantar Worldpanel Says

Apple (AAPL)


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Obama Ending Each Day With Healthcare.gov Update

Photo:   Bloomberg

The administration has said the troubled healthcare.gov website will function smoothly by the end of tomorrow.  But those paid to help enroll Americans in Obamacare remain doubtful.  The “navigators” designated to sign people up for insurance under the health-care overhaul say that while the federal online insurance exchange has improved since its Oct 1 debut, outages & errors continue to prevent many from using it to buy their coverage.  Healthcare.gov, which serves 36 states including Florida & Alaska, was designed to help uninsured Americans buy new health plans by Mar 31.  Enroll Alaska has signed up 52 people in health plans out of about 2200 who have requested help since the site opened & it's mostly successful with simple cases.  For uncommon financial situations, the has not able to function well.  The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, reiterated the administration’s pledge to have the site working smoothly for “the vast majority of users” by Dec.1.  The gov has added storage capacity to the data center & boosted processing power so it should be able to handle 800K visits a day & 50K users simultaneously.  Still unexpected outages & periods of slowness along with times when traffic is heavier than the site can handle are expected.  Why didn't they do this 3 years ago?  The answer is easy.  Sloppy is the new gov standard.  This disaster is a drag on the economy & will get worse next year when more enroll.

Hit-and-Miss Obamacare Site Still Frustrating at Deadline


As usual on the Fri following Thanksgiving, volume is very light.  But the little activity is on the buy side as early signals about Black Friday sales have been encouraging.  However, this is a very short shopping season, putting pressure on retails to deliver results.  Next week, the heat will be turned on in DC as key budget battle deadlines approach.

Dow Jones Industrials

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