Friday, July 29, 2022

Markets rally led by strength in tech shares on Nasdaq

Dow jumped 315 (near session highs), advancers over decliners about 3-1 & NAZ advanced 228.  The MLP index went up 2 to the 214s & the REIT index gained 2 to the 439s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries saw more buying, reducing yields.  Oil finished up 2+ to the 98s (with a high at 101) & gold rose 11 to 1780 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Just one day after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate, mortgage rates took a sharp turn lower.  The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.22% yesterday from 5.54% on Wed, when the Fed announced its latest rate hike, according to Mortgage News Daily.  Rates hadn't moved much in the days leading up to the Fed meeting earlier this week, but they had been slowly coming off their most recent high in mid-Jun, when the 30-year fixed briefly crossed 6%.  The drop also came on the heels of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' GDP report, which showed the US economy contracted in Q2.  That is a widely accepted signal of recession.  GDP fell 0.9% at an annualized pace for the period, according to the advance estimate.  The forecast had expected growth of 0.3%.  After the news, investors rushed to the relative safety of the bond market, causing yields to fall.  Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond.  This is an exceptionally fast drop!” wrote Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily.  “Perhaps even more interesting (and uncommon) is the fact that mortgage rates have dropped faster than U.S. Treasury yields. It’s typically the other way around as investors flock first to the most basic, risk-free bonds.”  Graham said the big picture shift in rates over the past month has created a situation where investors greatly prefer to be holding mortgage debt with lower rates.  “In a way, mortgage investors are trying to get ahead of the game. If they’re holding mortgages at a higher rate, they will lose money if those loans refinance too quickly,” he added.  The question now is whether the market is in a new range & rates will settle where they are now.  “If rates reverse course, volatility could be just as big going in the other direction,” Graham warned.  He also noted that mortgage rates could move even lower if economic data continues to be gloomy & inflation moderates.  Already, lower rates appear to be having a slight impact on potential homebuyers.  Real estate brokerage Redfin just reported seeing a slight uptick in searches & home tours in the past month, as rates came off their recent highs.  “The housing market seems to be settling into an equilibrium now that demand has leveled off,” Redfin's chief economist, Daryl Fairweather, said.  “We may still be in for some surprises when it comes to inflation and rate hikes from the Fed, but for now an ease in mortgage rates has brought some relief to buyers who were reeling from last month’s rate spike.”  The increase in buyer interest, however, has not translated into new contracts, nor sales.  The supply of homes for sale is increasing slowly, & there are reports of more sellers dropping their asking prices.

Mortgage rates tank after negative GDP report and Fed’s latest hike

US trucking CEOs expect to maintain pricing power even with volumes softening in H2 as retailers, manufacturers & consumers adjust to disruptions from Covid lockdowns, the Russia-Ukraine war & inflation.  A recent survey of customers by SAIA, a trucker for prominent retailers, found the majority of companies are still working to figure out their next step & what the “new normal” is for their business, according to CEO Fritz Holzgrefe.  “They were talking a lot about continuing to rebuild inventory positions, straightening out their supply chains through the balance of the year, even into the first part of next year,” Holzgrefe said.  “Maybe things have slowed a bit, but customers are still continuing to re-sort their supply chain position to more effectively to achieve their goals in their respective businesses.”  The supply chain is improving & past the worst, according to Derek Leathers, CEO of Werner Enterprise.  But, he warned, headwinds for truckers will keep rates well above prepandemic levels for the rest of 2022.  “You’ll see rates hold up for the remainder of the year. Our cost increases are real. Our customers understand that,” Leathers said.  “We’re talking large scale successful winning brands like [Amazon and Walmart] and many others that know the reliance on their carrier is a competitive advantage. They want good quality transportation, on time, every time safely. To do that they work with large well capitalized carriers.”   Earlier this year there were concerns about a “freight recession” because of falling rates in the spot market for trucking.  According to the most recent data from Evercore ISI, those rates are down more than 11% year over year.  The spot market provides on-demand freight transportation, & pricing varies based on supply & demand.  Spot trucking saw a boom at the height of the pandemic as companies adjusted to snarled supply chains & were willing to pay historic rates to transport goods during the e-commerce boom.  However, the majority of trucking is still done through contracts with carriers & their customers like large retailers.

Trucking CEOs expect higher prices, potential disruptions in second half of 2022

Exxon Mobil (XOM), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, Q2 EPS of $4.14 — excluding identified items — beat the estimate of $3.80 & improved from the year-ago profit of $1.10.  Total revenues of $115.7B missed the estimate of $118B but jumped from the year-earlier figure of $68B.  The strong earnings were owing to higher realized commodity prices & solid refinery utilization, offset partially by increased ethane feed costs in North America.  The upstream segment reported quarterly earnings of $11.4B, improving from $3B in the year-ago qtr.  Higher commodity prices primarily drove this upside.  Operations in the US recorded a profit of $3.7B, skyrocketing from $663M in Q2-2021.  The company reported a profit of $7.6B from non-US operations, improving from $2.5B in the year-ago qtr.  During the qtr under review, XOM generated cash flow of $20.9B from operations & asset divestments.  The company's capital & exploration spending was $4.6B.  The stock was up $4.41.
If you would like to learn more about XOM, click on this link:
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ExxonMobil (XOM) Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Miss

Gold futures finished higher, contributing to a gain for the week, as some traders expect the Federal Reserve to be less aggressive on interest-rate hikes, but prices for the precious metal still post a loss for the month.  The most-active Dec gold contract gained $12 (0.7%) to settle at $1781 an ounce.  Based on the most-active contract, gold gained nearly 3.2% for the week, but lost 1.4% for the month.  In Jul, gold bulls were terrorized by expectations of very aggressive interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, & almost all central banks, which led to a historical high in the US $ index & rising bond yields.  Gold logged a loss for the month.  However, the price of the most-active gold contract has gained roughly $40 since Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Wed.  Gold has benefited from the market's interpretation that the Fed might not be as aggressive with its interest-rate hikes going forward.  Gold’s rise today came on the back of weakness in the US $, with the ICE US Dollar index down 0.2% at 106.168s, as well as a fall in Treasury yields, with the yield on 10-year Treasury down 3.9 points at 2.638%.

Gold ends higher for the session and week, with the Fed seen as ‘less aggressive’ on interest-rate hikes

US oil futures climbed, posting a gain for the week on tight supplies, but prices were down for the month as worries about a potential US recession dulled the outlook for energy demand.  Still, with no major signs of fuel demand destruction, oil seems like it will soon find a home above the $100 a barrel mark.  US oil rig counts posted a gain of 6, bringing the total to 605 rigs, data from Baker Hughes.  But that should do little to help the market find balance anytime soon.  Sep West Texas Intermediate rose $2.20 (2.3%) to settle at $98.62 a barrel.  Prices based on the front-month contract climbed 4.1% for the week & lost nearly 6.8% for the month.

U.S. oil prices settle higher for the week, down for the month

Getting less attention with all the excitement this week, Treasury yields have dropped rapidly.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury has plunged almost 1 percentage point to 2.6% since mid Jun.  That is while the Fed has been raising its interest rates.  Now the Fed will have to work harder to slow the economy & reduce the inflation rate.  Nervous investors are buying gov debt.  Meanwhile stocks had a good week with the Dow up 855.

Dow Jones Industrials




 




Markets edge higher while investors assess recent economic data

Dow rose 76, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ went up 119.  The MLP index added 3+ to the 315s & the REIT index was even in the 437s after yesterday's big advance.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were flattish.  Oil soared 5+ to the 101s & gold gained another 9 to 1778.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

 

 

 




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The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge accelerated more than expected in Jun, according to new data released, a worrisome sign as central bankers try to combat higher prices with the steepest interest rate hikes in decades.  The personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) showed that core prices, which strips out the more volatile measurements of food & energy, climbed 0.6% from the previous month & rose 4.8% on an annual basis, according to the Commerce Dept.  Those figures are both higher than the 0.5% monthly increase & 4.7% annual increase forecast.  The more encompassing headline figure rose 6.8% on an annual basis, hitting a fresh 40-year high as gas prices surged, while inflation jumped 1.0% from May to Jun, tying its biggest monthly gain since 1981.  While the Fed is targeting the PCE headline figure as it tries to wrestle consumer prices back to 2%, Chair Jerome Powell told reporters this week that core data is actually a better indicator of inflation.  "Core inflation is a better predictor of inflation going forward," Powell said on Wed.  "Headline inflation tends to be volatile."  The latest report also showed that consumer spending jumped 1.1% last month, higher than expected.  However, nearly all of that increase actually stemmed from higher prices, not consumers buying more:  Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending rose by just 0.1%.  Personal income, meanwhile, climbed 0.6%, beating the 0.5% estimate, but disposable income adjusted for inflation dropped 0.3%.  In another troubling indication that inflation is broadening throughout the economy, the employment cost index – which measures wages & benefits for civilian workers – rose 1.3% in the period in Apr-Jun.  While that's down slightly from the first 3 months of the year, when compensation grew 1.4%, the data suggests that wage pressures remained strong in the spring as the result of an incredibly tight labor market.

Fed's preferred inflation gauge climbs 4.8% in June, holding near 40 year high

Intel's stock (INTC), a Dow stock, is down 11%, a day after the company reported disappointing Q2 earnings that missed on the top & bottom lines.  Revenue declined 22% year over year & missed consensus by 14%, the company's largest top-line disappointment since 1999.  It ended the qtr with a $454M net loss, compared with net income of $5B in the year-ago qtr.  The company also lowered its full-year expectations.  INTC sees full-year adjusted EPS of $2.30 & revenue of $65-68B, which is lower than guidance from 3 months ago.  The updated forecast factors in economic weakness that might result in organizations putting off PC refresh cycles, CFO David Zinsner said.  He said small & medium-sized businesses have slowed down their computer purchasing, but the enterprise has been holding up.  “We do think we’re on the bottom,” Zinsner said.  The stock dropped $4.10.
If you would like to learn more about INTC, click on this link:
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Intel stock slumps 11% after poor earnings show softening demand for PCs

Procter & Gamble (PG, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported mixed quarterly results as it faced rising commodity costs & warned that it expects such headwinds to persist in its fiscal 2023.  Higher pricing during its fiscal 4th qtr offset a slip in sales volume, which it attributed primarily to pandemic-related lockdowns in China & reduced operations in Russia.  PG reported a net income of $3.05B (EPS of $1.21).  In the year-ago period, it reported a net income of $2.9 (EPS of $1.13).  Net sales rose 3% from a year ago, driven by organic sales growth of 9% in both its health care & fabric & home care units, where higher pricing made up for flat & negative volumes, respectively.  CFO Andre Schulten attributed the flat & negative volume to the reduction of business in Russia & said he was confident that the “consumer is holding up well” as the company raised prices.   Still,  Schulten said its discussions with Walmart (WMT) “remain productive” & that the companies’ “interests are aligned” in addressing inflation.  He added PG remains committed to protecting its strategy of offering multiple price points for consumers, especially for products such as diapers.  For its fiscal 2023, PG expects EPS to be flat to up 4%.  It expects headwinds of $3.3B due to foreign exchange rates, higher commodity costs & higher freight costs.  The company expects sales for the year to be flat to up 2% from a year ago.  Organic sales, which strips out the impact of foreign exchange rates, is expected to be up 3-5%, driven by pricing.  The stock sank 9.42 (6%).
If you would like to learn more about PG, click on this link:
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Higher prices help Procter & Gamble, but Tide maker warns of more challenges

The 2 big oil companies in the Dow reported excellent earnings as expected, but the 2 Dow stocks above are struggling with a so-so economy & dealing with inflation.  Earnings going forward may be less than encouraging!

Dow Jones Industrials

 






Thursday, July 28, 2022

Markets move higher despite GDP shrinkage

Dow rose 330 (near the highs), advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ gained 128.  The MLP index added 2+ to 211 & the REIT index soared 13+ to the 437s.  Junk bond funds rose along with stocks & Treasuries were purchased, lowering yields.  Oil was fractionally lower to 97 & gold advanced 33 to 1770 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Fewer Americans applied for jobless benefits last week, but the previous week's number was revised upward significantly, with claims breaching the 250K level in back-to-back weeks for the first time in more than 8 months.  Applications for jobless aid last week declined 5K to 256K from the previous week's 261K, the Labor Dept reported.  The number of claims for the prior week was revised upward by 10K from the previous estimate of 251K   First-time applications generally reflect layoffs.  The 4-week average for claims, which smooths out some of the week-to-week volatility, rose by 6K from the previous week, to 249K.  That number is also at its highest level since Nov of last year.  The total number of Americans collecting jobless benefits for the latest week fell by 25K from the previous week, to 1.36K.  That figure has been near 50-year lows for months.  Earlier this month, the Labor Dept reported that employers added 372K jobs in Jun, a surprisingly robust gain & similar to the pace of the previous 2 months.  The forecast had expected job growth to slow sharply last month given the broader signs of economic weakness.

Jobless claims fall but still remain at highest level of year

As inflation continues to rise, nearly 40% of Americans say they feel “financially unhealthy.”  That's according to a recent survey from Personal Capital, which surveyed 2000 Americans over 18 & was conducted by The Harris Poll from Apr 19-23.  With prices going up, some 58% of Americans feel that their quality of life is decreasing & a whopping 69% say their salary is not keeping pace.  So what does it take for Americans to feel good about their finances?  Here’s a look at the average savings & salary expectations that the survey respondents said they’d need to consider themselves financially healthy.  The average salary Americans need to feel financially healthy went down 13% from 6 months ago to an average of $107K overall.  It's also worth noting that financial health is subjective, & will mean different things to different people, depending on their priorities.  Savings expectations moved inversely to salary expectations in response to inflation.  The average savings needed to feel financially healthy shot up by 17% to an average of $529K overall over the last 6 months.  Each generation may also have different priorities.  Around ½ of millennial respondents say they'll spend more time planning for a vacation than planning for retirement.  They are also the generation least likely to cut back on travel as a whole because of inflation.

Average salary Americans need to feel ‘financially healthy’ at every age

Ford (F) adjusted operating income more than tripled from a year ago, to $3.7B, as it was able to deliver more of its hottest new products to customers.  Ford also reiterated its previous guidance for the full year & said that it will increase its quarterly div to 15¢, the amount it paid before the Covid-19 pandemic.  Adjusted earnings before interest & tax (adjusted EBIT) jumped to $3.7B from $1.1B a year ago, as its margin improved to 9.3% from 3.9% on supply chain improvements & a more profitable mix of products sold.  Despite that gain, net income was just $667B after it accounted for a $2.4B decline in the value of its stake in electric vehicle startup Rivian Automotive (RIVN).  US sales were up 1.8% in Q2 from a year ago, powered by an 8% year-over-year increase in sales of Ford brand SUVs & crossovers.  But inflation — specifically, higher prices for key commodities & transportation — offset those gains to some extent.  CFO John Lawler said that despite inflation headwinds, Ford is standing by its previous guidance for the full year.  It still expects adjusted EBIT of $11.5-12.5B for the year, which would represent 15-25% growth from last year, with adjusted free cash flow of $5.5-6.5B.  The stock went up 79¢.
If you would like to learn more about Ford, click on this link:
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Ford beats estimates and raises dividend as it sells more of its top models

US oil futures gave up early gains to finish lower.  Crude prices remained a volatile trade as energy traders digested a surprising 2nd consecutive contraction for the US economy & reports that OPEC+ will likely keep production steady or consider a small increase in output.  Sep West Texas Intermediate crude fell 84¢ (0.9%) to settle at $96.42 a barrel after trading as high as $99.84.

U.S. oil prices give up early gains to finish with a loss

Gold rose sharply, with gold logging its biggest one-day percentage gain since Mar.  Gold for Oct gained $31 (1.8%) to settle at $1750 per ounce.  That was the biggest one-day percentage gain for a most-active contract since Mar.  Gold benefited from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comment yesterday that the next interest rate hike in Sep would depend on the tenor of upcoming US economic data.  Traders have interpreted his vague guidance as opening the door to a rate hike of just 50 basis points in Sep after the Fed opted for 75 basis point hikes in Jun & Jul.  Gold has endured substantial weakness this summer as the strong $ & higher yields have robbed the precious metal of some of its luster.  After falling for 5 straight weeks, gold hit its lowest level since the first qtr of 2021 earlier this month.  The ICE US Dollar index a gauge of the greenback's strength against a basket of rivals, was up by less than 0.1% in today's dealings.

Gold scores biggest one day rally since March, silver jumps nearly 7% due to Fed-inspired ‘short squeeze

Early on stocks were sold.  Then buyers came & kept  coming for the rest of the day.. The Dow finished near session highs.  The rate hike was no surprise & buyers are hoping.the Fed will be able to get inflation under control soon.  But that is a very big chore.  Many of the earnings reports mention inflation & that mention is not favorable.  Even if it pulls back to 5%, that's still annoying.  In the meantime, Dow is up about 2500 from its low.in mid Jun (see below).

Dow Jones Industrials