The FED meting tomorrow brings out the buyers today. The Dow was up 100 while NAZ was up 12. Advance/decline ratio was almost 2, not very exciting on a major up day. Volume was a little light, again fairly typical on the day before a meeting. They are expecting rate cuts for Fed Funds & the discount rate with hopes the Fed Funds rate will be cut ½ point. The FED seems anxious to please, I'm expecting the bigger rate cut. Largely gone unnoticed, the Treasury bond has fallen back raising the yield to 4.15% up 30 basis points from just a few days ago. Maybe some of that money has been going into stocks. About all we can do now is wait & see how the stock market plays out tomorrow.
In terms of bargains, MLPs have been trading flat for a few weeks. Nothing wrong, that's the way it is. They have nice yields & generally are quick to raise distributions. They are tax efficient but all represent tax hassle. Bargain hunters might take a look.
Monday, December 10, 2007
Keep throwing darts
It looks like all you have to do to make money is throw darts. That is working today. Dow is up 97 & NAZ is up 14. Advancers are ahead of decliners better than 2-1, not so great in today's market. Stocks I watch are all up nicely. Obviously the rate cuts tomorrow are bring out buyers from the woodwork today. Last week the market was up nicely although banks, MLPs, REITs & junk funds were flat at best. Maybe tax loss selling held them back.
UBS is writing off $10 billion in subprime loans, they're up 1. McDonalds (MCD) report same store sales up 8% last month with much of the gains from overseas. They're up 1+.
A big gain tomorrow will push the Dow near 14K, near it's record from reached a few months ago. For my money, that's too much too fast. But the Dec rally is in full swing so enjoy it.
UBS is writing off $10 billion in subprime loans, they're up 1. McDonalds (MCD) report same store sales up 8% last month with much of the gains from overseas. They're up 1+.
A big gain tomorrow will push the Dow near 14K, near it's record from reached a few months ago. For my money, that's too much too fast. But the Dec rally is in full swing so enjoy it.
Sunday, December 9, 2007
Happy Holidays
Now you know I like beagles. When I was a kid, we had a beagle. They are cute. Even my mother got to like the dog, putting it's picture first in her wallet. This picture was saved from years ago & continues to be one of my favorites.
The puppies send their wishes for:
The puppies send their wishes for:
Happy Holidays!!
Friday, December 7, 2007
Quiet day
Stock averages barely changed by the end of the day. Advancers were a little ahead of decliners. Traders are waiting for the FED meeting on Tues, there probably will not be a lot happening on Mon. The bet is ¼ point rate cut, but I think it will be ½ point to make the financials happy. The Treasury bond yield rose to 4.12% as bond sellers cashed in profits. I wonder where their money is going.
Smith & Wesson Holding Corp (SWHC) dropped about 3 after cutting it's outlook for 2008. Want to help, buy more guns.
Smith & Wesson Holding Corp (SWHC) dropped about 3 after cutting it's outlook for 2008. Want to help, buy more guns.
Quiet day, but subprime worries continue
After all the excitement in recent days, the stock markets quieted down. The markets in Asia & Europe were up following the lead of our market yesterday, they like the subprime fix announced. Today our traders were mildly disappointed by the jobs report from the Labor Department. No big news, maybe the markets need some time to digest recent gains. Dow & NAZ are about even, advancers are slightly ahead of decliners on the big board. Oil fell back to 88 while the Treasury bond remains near 4%. If the Dow holds it will be up 2% this week, not a bad start for Dec.
The subprime "fix" news is getting a lot of attention. There are about 3MM adjustable rate subprime loans, about 19% are past due. Without help more will become past due with higher resets in the coming months. The help is not a quick fix & only applies to marginal loans needing help. At the toll free phone number, callers are told there would be "lots of hoops to jump through" to obtain the five-year freeze. This program is voluntary & will vary depending on the lender. Can you spell, "uh-oh?" Reality is setting in & sounding a lot worse than many had originally thought.
The subprime mess is not only big but global in nature. Mortgages are sold in pools to financial institutions around the world. Asian & European banks have already taken big write-offs on their investments. Northern Rock, the largest lender in UK, has been struggling for weeks trying to remain alive dealing with a huge mortgage portfolio. Countrywide (CFC), our largest mortgage holder, has rebounded to 10, they're still struggling. They know & are trying to prevent more foreclosures which will add houses to an already soggy housing market.
Enjoy the up market this week. Tues, it should be up big after the FED interest rate cut announcement. Then we'll worry about the future.
The subprime "fix" news is getting a lot of attention. There are about 3MM adjustable rate subprime loans, about 19% are past due. Without help more will become past due with higher resets in the coming months. The help is not a quick fix & only applies to marginal loans needing help. At the toll free phone number, callers are told there would be "lots of hoops to jump through" to obtain the five-year freeze. This program is voluntary & will vary depending on the lender. Can you spell, "uh-oh?" Reality is setting in & sounding a lot worse than many had originally thought.
The subprime mess is not only big but global in nature. Mortgages are sold in pools to financial institutions around the world. Asian & European banks have already taken big write-offs on their investments. Northern Rock, the largest lender in UK, has been struggling for weeks trying to remain alive dealing with a huge mortgage portfolio. Countrywide (CFC), our largest mortgage holder, has rebounded to 10, they're still struggling. They know & are trying to prevent more foreclosures which will add houses to an already soggy housing market.
Enjoy the up market this week. Tues, it should be up big after the FED interest rate cut announcement. Then we'll worry about the future.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Freezing mortgage rates
News stories tonight are trying to figure out how the freeze on mortgage rates will affect borrowers & lenders. There are a lot of worries that not enough borrowers will be helped. Lenders (who are now mortgage holders around the world after buying pools of mortgages) have to be biting their lips. They figure collecting payments with lower interest rates is preferable to foreclosing & reselling properties in a difficult time. Maybe, but the market values of mortgage portfolios have to be less with lower interest income. Interest rates cut by the FED on Tues will not solve these mortgage problems.
Tonight Asian markets are up following through on gains here. Oil is back at 90 and the Treasury bond rate is up to 4.0%. I think buyers will rule in tomorrow's markets here.
Tonight Asian markets are up following through on gains here. Oil is back at 90 and the Treasury bond rate is up to 4.0%. I think buyers will rule in tomorrow's markets here.
Up day again on freezing mortgage rates
The stock market rallied with high hopes for a Fed rate cut & the plan for freezing mortgage rates. Dow was up 175, advancers beat declines 5-1 while NAZ was up 43. Volume was only medium but it looks like the next stop will be pushing the record above 14K. Just about every stock I followed was up, second day in row.
Stocks got a boost with the announcement allowing some homeowners facing foreclosure to freeze their interest rates up to five years & refinance their mortgages. The plan created by the Treasury Department, mortgage lenders & banks could help over 1 million homeowners. I think mortgage holders may be in for a rude shock when they reprice their loans down based on low interest rates for 5 years. It looks like the stock market figures tomorrow will take of itself.
Stocks got a boost with the announcement allowing some homeowners facing foreclosure to freeze their interest rates up to five years & refinance their mortgages. The plan created by the Treasury Department, mortgage lenders & banks could help over 1 million homeowners. I think mortgage holders may be in for a rude shock when they reprice their loans down based on low interest rates for 5 years. It looks like the stock market figures tomorrow will take of itself.
Investing for retirement
Jonathan Pond offers a discussion on PBS stations about how to grow your money for retirement, very smart investing is needed. He talks about big pictures issues which will be help those looking for assistance. Check your local PBS station to learn more.
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