Monday, November 5, 2012

Markets edge higher despite increased euro debt worries

Dow gained 19, advancers barely ahead of decliners & NAZ rose 17 to just under 3000.  The Financial Index lost a fraction, falling below 215.  The MLP index fell 2 to the 401s & the REIT index lost 1+ to 262.  Junk bond funds were lower but Treasuries rose on growing uncertainties over euro debt bailouts.  Oil & gold were higher.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.091%

U.S. 2-year

0.274%

U.S. 10-year

1.684%

CLG13.NYM....Crude Oil Feb 13...86.72 ...Up 0.72 (0.8%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





The € fell to the lowest in almost 8 weeks amid speculation Greece will struggle to win bailout funds, risking the nation’s future in the European monetary bloc.  The € declined versus all its 16 major counterparts after Greek Prime Minister Samaras pledged yesterday that proposed wage & pension cuts will be the last as he struggled to win political support for measure to assure the country’s lifeline.  The € weakened to under $1.28, the lowest level since Sep 11.  Greek society won’t tolerate any more austerity measures, Samaras told lawmakers of his New Democracy Party in Athens, as coalition leaders debate the terms of the latest package.  The first parliamentary vote needed to obtain additional aid is scheduled to take place as early as Wed.  Spain said it is working on a review of income & spending in its welfare system as it heads toward a deficit amid a deepening economic slump & the highest jobless rate in the EU.  It's relying on €100B ($128B) in European aid for its banks & potentially seeking more to shore up its public finances.  The lack of euro news in recent weeks does not mean all is well.

Euro Touches Month Low on Concern Greece Won’t Secure Aid


Speaking of Spain, the EU failed to name Luxembourg's top banker to the executive board of the ECB after Spain raised objections over his appointment.  The members were expected to approve Yves Mersch joining the 6-person board, overriding the advice of the European Parliament, which wants more women voted in.  But officials said Spain unexpectedly voiced concerns on Mersch's nomination.  The issue will be left for the EU leaders to discuss at their Nov 22-23 summit, or a later one in Dec, extending a key vacancy at the ECB as the region's financial crisis continues unabated.  In an unprecedented move, the EU Parliament voted against Mersch's appointment last month to protest the lack of women among the ECB's top executives.  But members seemed ready to vote Mersch in anyway, ignoring the legislature's advice & prompting protests from some EU lawmakers.  Spain said that the issue merited a closer look by EU leaders at their summit even though Spain did not have a problem with Mersch in particular as a candidate.  It looks like Spain views delay as a plus despite the fact that it could slow bailout money being dispersed.

Spain further delays ECB board nomination AP


General Motors reported a new $11B revolving credit line consisting of a $5½B 3-year facility & a $5½B 5-year facility.  This loan package replaces a $5B credit facility maturing in 2015.  The expanded credit line “offers improved pricing and terms, and the ability to borrow in currencies other than U.S. dollars.”  GM Financial, its captive finance company, will also be able to borrow under the agreement.  The larger credit line gives GM borrowing capacity similar to Ford (F), which has $9.3B in revolving credit facilities.  GM said 35 financial institutions from 14 countries participated in the syndicated transaction.  “The new revolver provides a significant source of backup liquidity and financial flexibility, further bolstering our fortress balance sheet,” CFO Dan Ammann said.  The new credit line “represents a strong vote of confidence in the financial strength of our company,” he said.  The stock fell 22¢.

GM Reports New $11 Billion Revolver to Replace Existing Credit Line

General Motors (GM)


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Dow bounced almost 74 off its early AM lows for no good reason.  There was no special economic news & thoughts coming from Europe are negative about more bailouts.  The US election looks to be very close & nobody is sure how the markets will react to the outcome.  After its big fall on Oct 23, Dow has been pretty much trading flat near 13.1K.  That performance will probably continue tomorrow.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Mixed markets ahead of the election

Dow slipped 16, decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ was up by 5 (helped by Apple - see below).  The Financial Index lost 1+ to 214, little changed in the last month.  The MLP index dropped 2 to the 401s (as some MLPs go ex-distribution) & the REIT index was off 2 to the 261s.  Junk bond funds were a little soft on reports that there has been outflows from these funds & Treasuries rose.  Oil is slightly higher as investors remain cautious ahead of the presidential election.  Buyers moved into gold.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.091%

U.S. 2-year

0.274%

U.S. 10-year

1.686%


CLG13.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 13...86.09 ....Up 0.09  (0.1%)

GCX12.CMX...Gold Nov 12.....1,682.20 ...Up 8.10  (0.5%)







Global finance bigwigs pressed the US to avoid harming the fragile world economy with excessive austerity, widening their focus on fiscal challenges beyond concerns over Europe’s debt woes.  G-20 finance ministers & central bankers meeting in Mexico City pushed for swift action to prevent the $607B in tax increases & spending cuts that will hit in Jan unless lawmakers act.  The fear of foreign officials is that failure to limit the damage of the fiscal cliff would tip the world’s largest economy into recession & drag their countries down with it.  Europe remained under pressure amid calls to take promised crisis-fighting steps.  A draft of the statement to be issued today identifies the potential for a sharp fiscal pullback in the US & Japan as a danger to an already modest expansion.  While Europe is enjoying some respite from its debt crisis after the ECB pledged to buy bonds, the draft cautions against delaying efforts to deliver a permanent solution.  Don't bet on much coming from this meeting.

G-20 Tells U.S. to Avoid Fiscal Cliff as Focus Widens


ISM Services Gauge in U.S. Fell to 54.2 in October From 55.1

Photo:   Bloomberg

The pace of growth in the US services sector slowed modestly in Oct as new orders slipped, though employment improved to its highest level in 7 months.  The Institute for Supply Management said its services index eased to 54.2 last month from 55.1 in Sep, shy of the forecast for 54.5.  A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.  The forward-looking new orders gauge fell to 54.8 from 57.7, but the measure of employment rose to its highest level since Mar at 54.9 from 51.1.  The vast services sector has fared better than its manufacturing counterpart, which contracted during the summer.  Still, this was the first time since Jun that the rate of growth in services firms has cooled.
New export orders contracted to 47.5 from 50.5 against the backdrop of slower global growth & the euro zone's ongoing debt crisis.  While employment is higher, these jobs are low paying.  Overall, a not very encouraging report.



Apple (AAPL) sold 3M iPads of all kinds in the first 3 days of the new Mini model.  It began selling the Mini on Fri, starting at $329, & is a 1/3 smaller than the full-size iPad.  The sales figure compares with 1½M iPads sold in the first 3 days after it launched the 3rd-generation iPad in Mar & cut the price of the iPad 2.  The full-size iPad got an update as well, with a faster processor & a better front-facing camera.  The launch was in 34 countries, including the US, Japan, Germany & the UK.  The stock rose $9 to $586 but is still down almost $120 from its Sep highs.

Apple sells 3M iPads after Mini launch AP

Apple (AAPL)


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Not much for the markets to do ahead of the election & there seems to be a feeling that no matter who wins, stocks will benefit. That ignores the fiscal cliff which gets closer day by day.  Dow has been above 13K since early Aug, ignoring a dingy economic outlook around the world.  The markets will probably remain quiet for the rest of the day & into tomorrow.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Friday, November 2, 2012

Markets drop on worries about jobs data

Dow sank in late day trading, finishing down 139, decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ dropped 37.  The Financial Index fell 1+ to 215.  The MLP index was off 2 to the 403s & the REIT index rose 1+ to the 263s.  Junk bond funds were mixed to higher & Treasuries slipped back.  Oil fell & gold tumbled the most in more than 4 months to below $1700 as US payrolls in Oct rose more than forecast, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to expand monetary stimulus.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart





Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.091%

U.S. 2-year

0.307%

U.S. 10-year

1.803%


CLZ12.NYM...Crude Oil Dec 12...84.99 ...Down 2.10  (2.4%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]


Existing-home sales, a market indicator, will probably slow in the Northeast for the rest of 2012 as superstorm Sandy disrupts deals, the National Association of Realtors said.  “Closings may be delayed, and a lot occur at the end of the month,” Walter Molony, a spokesman for the group said.  “In theory, you wouldn’t see the impact just in October sales. You’d see it in subsequent months.”  An index of pending home sales for Sep jumped 26%in the Northeast, the biggest gain of any region, the Realtors association reported.  Contracts to buy existing homes increased 15% nationwide, the 17th consecutive increase from a year earlier.  Existing homes sold at an annual pace of 4.75M nationwide in Sep, up 11% from a year earlier & the 15th consecutive increase on an annual basis.  The Northeast accounted for 12% of US sales in Sep.

Sandy to Slow October Home Sales in the U.S. Northeast

  • Delta Airlines passengers check in at BWI Thurgood Marshall International Airport near Baltimore, Maryland October 24, 2012. REUTERS/Gary Cameron
Photo:   Yahoo

Delta Air Lines said that a key revenue measure improved in Oct, helped by corp travel & cancellations in the wake of superstorm Sandy.  The airline, which canceled more than 3½K flights last month because of the storm, said Sandy had hurt Oct revenue by $45M & likely shaved about $20M from profit . It estimated that the storm's effect on Nov revenue & profit would be less than Oct.  Unit revenue, a measure of pricing power & how full planes are, rose 5.5% in Oct from a year earlier. The cancellations caused a 2% reduction in systemwide capacity in Oct from a year ago.  DAL said the improvement in unit revenue, also known as passenger revenue per available seat mile, was about one percentage point higher than it would have been without the impact of the hurricane.  Cancellations tend to help unit revenue as more travelers are put on remaining flights.  Its percentage of seats filled systemwide in Oct was 84.6%, up from 82.8% a year earlier.  There will be hug cost form this storm & this is an early indication.  The stock was unchanged.

Delta Air Lines (DAL)


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Market leader Apple tanked once again, even as it introduced the new iPad.  It seems it has been able to find any friends since it peaked in Sep.  The stock dropped 20 today to 575.

Apple (AAPL)


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Dow pulled back 14 in this shortened week.  There was a fair amount of news but it came in mixed as the negative effects from Sandy seemed to dominate.  Europe will get more attention next week as it comes under the spotlight again.  The near terms effects form Sandy will be negative, although longer term rebuilding should help the economy.  Then there  is the fiscal cliff which keeps getting closer with no resolution in sight, the euro mess & slower growth in emerging countries.  So far, the stock markets are taking it all in stride.

Dow Jones Industrials


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