Monday, February 4, 2013

Markets fall on Euro worries

Dow lost 129, decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ dropped 47.  The Financial Index remained lower, down 2+ to the 234s.  The MLP index gave up almost 2 to below 430 (from its record high) & the REIT index slipped 1+ the 277s.  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries rose, pushing the yield on the 10-year note down from almost 10-month highs, as levels above 2% attracted buyers skeptical about the pace of the US.  Oil had a big loss after months of strength & gold rebounded 5 to its best level in more than a week.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart






Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.058%

U.S. 2-year

0.252%

U.S. 10-year

1.968%

CLH13.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 13....96.01 ...Down 1.76  (1.8%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




The housing rebound in the US is broadening to other parts of the economy & could lend impetus to growth through 2013 & beyond.  Climbing home prices are lifting household wealth & boosting the purchasing power of consumers.  Declining mortgage delinquencies & foreclosures are buttressing bank balance sheets, giving them greater leeway to lend.  And rising property- tax revenue is fortifying the finances of state & local govs, alleviating pressure to cut budgets.  The spreading impact of housing will help the economy weather looming federal gov spending cuts & tax increases.  Rising residential construction & its knock-on economic effects may boost GDP by 0.75 percentage point this year which could offset much of the drag from the fiscal squeeze.  Housing has helped lead the economy out of every recession since 1950 except for the last one in 2007-2009.  Homebuilding climbed 12% in 2012, the first annual increase since 2005.  As Americans move into new homes, they buy appliances & furniture, giving growth an added lift.  Construction-equipment makers to paint- & building-materials businesses also benefit.

Housing Packs Punch for U.S. Growth in 2013 and Beyond


<p>               Ferries remain docked during a fifth day of strike by Greek dock workers in the port of Piraeus, near Athens, Monday, Feb. 4, 2013. The strike, which began Thursday, is demanding back pay for the workers from ship owners, a collective wage agreement, and an end to undocumented and uninsured employees. The workers also want the government to cancel a plan to regulate the minimum number of dock workers required in each crew, saying that would lead to layoffs. (AP Photo/Thanassis Stavrakis)

Photo:   Yahoo

The Greek gov said its painful austerity drive is paying off, with the budget deficit reduced to the target of 6.6% of annual output in 2012 from 9.4% a year earlier.  The finance ministry said that, not counting the cost of servicing Greece's debt mountain, the gov posted a modest budget surplus of €434M ($588M) last year.  "These positive developments ... show that efforts at fiscal adjustment and discipline are bearing fruit, which creates the necessary conditions to stabilize and gradually restart the economy," Deputy Finance Minister Christos Staikouras said.  However, popular anger at repeated income cuts remains high, with striking seamen keeping island ferries tied up for the past 5 days & unions planning a general strike & protests in 2 weeks.  Finance Minister Yiannis Stournaras sent a threatening letter containing a bullet that warned of "severe consequences" if Greeks have their property confiscated for debts.  The conservative-led coalition has promised to reduce the budget deficit to 5.2% of annual output this year, down from a peak of more than 15% when the Greek economy started to implode in 2009.

Greece says it met deficit-cutting targets in 2012 AP


Herbalife Drops After Report of Law-Enforcement Investigation

Photo:   Bloomberg

The FTC corrected a statement that erroneously said Herbalife was the subject of a law-enforcement probe after a report about the non-existent investigation sent the company’s shares down the most in a month.  The FTC, in responding to a request from the New York Post, should have said that it withheld some information from documents posted online because it can’t disclose consumer complaints obtained from foreign sources if they request confidentiality, the agency, said.  The FTC’s correspondence with the newspaper, posted on the agency’s website, originally explained the redaction by erroneously citing an exemption for information obtained in a law-enforcement investigation.  The report sent Cayman Islands-based HLF shares down 12% today, the biggest intraday decline since Dec 21.  HLF has been fighting allegations from hedge fund manager BIll Ackman, who said in Dec that the company uses inflated pricing, misleading sales information & a complicated incentive structure to hide a pyramid scheme.  Ackman said he thought the FTC or the SEC would look into allegations he made about the company during a Dec 20 presentation in New York.  The company said today that it was unaware of any regulatory interest or investigation other than a voluntary dialogue it was having with regulators.  “For a direct-selling company of our size, we have had a relatively low number of complaints to the FTC,” the company said.  “However, we take every one of them seriously and stand by our record of doing right by our distributors and all consumers of our products.”  HLF has repeatedly denied the allegations that it operates a pyramid scheme, saying it is a retail-oriented business that sells products with unique ingredients.  The stock ended the day up 47¢ to $35.54 after being under pressure for a couple of months (with extraordinary volume).

FTC Corrects Herbalife Statement After Probe Report

Herbalife (HLF)

stock chart


Stocks began the day with a big loss & remained flattish for the rest of the trading session.  Euro worries brought out sellers.  Of course the markets are way overbought, so profit taking has to be expected.  US debt mess concerns were on a backburner today, but should surface soon.  While Dow is back below 14K, it remains within about 300 of setting a new record.  If sellers want to take over, they will have to show more strength.

Dow Jones Industrials

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Lower markets on disappointing factory orders

Dow dropped 115, decliners ahead of advancers 3-1 & NAZ fell 21.  The Financial Index lost 2+ to the 234s.  The MLP index was off 1 to 430 & the REIT index slipped a fraction to 278.  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries also rose while stocks declined.  Oil dropped on political turmoil in Europe & as the prospect of renewed talks between Western govs & Iran reduced tension in the Middle East.  Gold had a modest gain. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.063%

U.S. 2-year

0.252%

U.S. 10-year

1.986%

CLH13.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 13...96.35 ...Down 1.42  (1.5%)

GCG13.CMX...Gold Feb 13...`1,666.40 ...Down 3.00  (0.2%)









Orders to U.S. Factories Rose Less Than Forecast in December

Photo:   Bloomberg

US factories orders increased less than forecast in Dec, reflecting a drop in non-durable goods that overshadowed gains in construction equipment & computers.  Bookings climbed 1.8% after a revised 0.3% drop in Nov that was initially reported as unchanged, according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast called for a 2.3% gain.  Demand for durable goods increased 4.3%, little changed from 4.6% gain estimated, while non-durables dropped 0.3% on declines in petroleum & tobacco.  A Q4 pickup in demand is spurring companies, including automakers, & reviving a manufacturing industry that cooled in H2.  The acceleration extended into Jan, according to a gauge last week that showed factories expanded at the strongest pace in 9 months.  A measure of job prospects fell in Jan for the first time in 4 months as more Americans said jobs were harder to get.  The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index decreased 0.1% to 109.38 from the prior month’s revised reading of 109.47.  The measure increased 2.7% from Jan 2012.  Factory orders excluding the volatile transportation category increased 0.2% in Dec after falling 0.2% in the previous month.  Demand minus military hardware advanced 0.3%. The jump in bookings for durable goods was paced by a 12.2% increase in construction equipment & a 6.4% gain for computers.  The drop in orders for non-durable goods may have been influenced by swings in prices.  Demand for petroleum & coal products fell 0.6% in Dec, while tobacco slumped 23.1%.

Orders to U.S. Factories Rose Less Than Forecast in December


Europe's political tremors risk spoiling the region’s market calm, with corruption allegations buffeting Spanish Premier Rajoy & Silvio Berlusconi narrowing the front-runner’s lead as elections loom.  Rajoy, facing opposition calls to resign amid contested reports about illegal payments, traveled to Berlin as euro-area leaders schedule a flurry of meetings this week ahead of a Feb 7-8 EU summit.  Last week’s nationalization of the Netherlands’ 4th-largest bank & a €2.2B ($3B) loss at Deutsche Bank underscore the fragile economic health in the region.  “The euro crisis is not over,” German Finance Minister Wolfgand Schaeible said on Fri. Still, “we’re in a much better position than we were a year ago,” the minister said.  A sluggish economy, uncertainty over the outcome of this month’s Italian election & Rajoy’s new troubles threaten to curtail the time won by politicians with the central-bank bond buying.  For now, European policy makers have room to maneuver as borrowing costs for indebted nations have fallen & investor confidence returns.  Euro problems have not evaporated!



Simon Property reported a 21.9% increase in a key earnings measure for Q4, easily beating estimates, as rents & sales rose at its malls & outlet centers.  The #1 US mall & outlet center owner, also raised the div for the 6th straight qtr.  The only REIT in the S&P 100 index, SPG owns or has an interest in 328 retail properties in North America & Asia.  Q4 funds from operations (FFO) per share increased to $2.29 from $1.91 a year earlier.  Expectations were for $2.17.  For the past 2 years, the company has repeatedly beaten forecasts.  The company raised the quarterly div to $1.15 from $1.10.  SPG forecast full-year 2013 FFO, excluding one-time items, at $8.40-$8.50.  The company's outlooks tend to be conservative, and Simon often raises them each quarter.  Analysts expect $8.41.  The stock was up a dime.

Simon Property FFO Rises as Shopper Spending Increases at Malls

Simon Property (SPG)

stock chart


Stocks had nothing short of a spectacular Jan, time for profit taking.  Markets are being priced for perfection which is far from the macro picture.  Unsettled conditions in Europe remain.  An absence of negative stories does not mean that serious problems have been solved.  The US economy saw a weak Q4 & the outlook for H1 is not good as higher taxes (i.e. Social Security taxes) will be felt.  Stock buyers may have gotten ahead of the economic situation on the ground.

Dow Jones Industrials

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