Monday, June 3, 2013

Markets rise on hopes for more stimulus by the Federal Reserve

Dow shot up 138, but decliners were only a little ahead  of advancers & NAZ had a more moderate advance of 9.  Strong buying came in the last hour of trading  The MLP index recovered 1+ (from recent selling) to the the 444s & the REIT index bounced back 1+ to 287 from its losses in the last 2 weeks.  Junk bond fund continued selling off & Treasuries rose.  Oil had a good day & gold is back above 1400.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yiels:

U.S. 3-month

0.03%

U.S. 2-year

0.29%

U.S. 10-year

2.13%

CLN13.NYM...Crude Oil Jul 13....93.36 Up ...1.39  (1.5%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




May ISM Manufacturing Index Decreased to 49 from 50.7 in April

Photo:   Bloomberg

US manufacturing unexpectedly shrank in May at the fastest pace in 4 years, showing slowdowns in business & government spending are holding back the economy.  The Institute for Supply Management factory index fell to 49, the lowest reading since Jun 2009, from the prior month’s 50.7.  50 is the dividing line between growth & contraction.  The forecast called for 51.  Across-the-board federal budget cuts & overseas markets that are struggling to rebound will probably continue to curb manufacturing, which accounts for about 12% of the economy.  At the same time, demand for automobiles, gains in residential construction & lean inventories may spark a pickup in orders & production in H2.  The ISM index was pushed down by declines in orders & production & smaller gains in exports. The employment gauge was little changed at just above the break-even level of 50.   Other reports today showed most manufacturers globally were also struggling.  China data indicates small factories contracted at a faster pace in May even as larger counterparts improved.  But Euro-area manufacturing output shrank less than initially estimated last month.



GM’s Cadillac Posts Biggest Year-to-Date Surge Since Disco Era

Photo:   Bloomberg

The Cadillac brand, from General Motors, this year has had its biggest gain since 1976.  The luxury brand’s deliveries gained 40% in May to 13,808 vehicles on demand for new ATS & XTS sedans, which accounted for 41% of deliveries. That was the brand’s best May since 2007.  Thru May, Cadillac shipments increased 38% to 69K, the biggest year-to-date increase since 1976, when GM sold 135K Cadillacs.  “Think about that,” Kurt McNeil, GM’s VP of sales operations, said.  “We’re talking about the days of disco, when Cadillac was strictly a US brand back then, not one that’s directly challenging the German luxury brands and gearing up to triple its sales in China over the next couple of years.”  GM is counting on Cadillac to help increase profit with sales to higher-income buyers.  The company is positioning Cadillac & Chevrolet as the automaker’s 2 global brands, with Chevy for the mass market.  70% of ATS customers in the US are buying their first Cadillac while 50% are trading in a vehicle from another manufacturer, David Caldwell, a GM spokesman.  GM ranks 4th in US luxury-vehicle sales, behind Daimler's Mercedes-Benz, BMW & Toyota's (TM) Lexus.  GM stock was up 48¢.

GM’s Cadillac Posts Biggest 5-Month Gain Since Disco Era

General Motors (GM)

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US internet advertising is still growing at a robust clip as marketers pursue the growing online audience & data analysis helps to target their pitches at people most likely to buy their products & services.  A report from Interactive Advertising Bureau & PricewaterhouseCoopers says US advertisers poured $9.6B into their campaigns during Q1, up 16% from $8.3B at the same time last year.  For all of 2012, US online advertising grew 15%.  The steady rise in online advertising has been a boon to internet companies such as Google (GOOG) while hobbling other media outlets that relied on printed products.

Online advertising in US rises 16 pct in 1Q AP


Apple Fights U.S. E-Books Pricing Claims in Antitrust Trial

Photo:   Bloomberg

A US gov lawyer opened a civil trial today by portraying Apple as a corp bully that swaggered into the market for electronic books in 2010, forcing an end to price competition and costing consumers hundreds of millions of dollars.  The attorney said a dramatic price increase in e-books was "no accident or unforeseen outcome" but the result of a deliberate plan by AAPL & 5 book publishers to eliminate Amazon's (AMZN) $9.99 bargain price for popular e-books.  The gov is asking the judge to find that the computer company had violated anti-trust laws.  The lawyer AAPL sharply disputed the gov claims, saying the company had been waiting eagerly for its chance to show it had enhanced competition and improved the e-book industry.  "Apple is going to trial because it did nothing wrong," he said. "Apple did not conspire with any publisher individually, collectively or otherwise to raise industry prices."  He called the gov case bizarre, saying: "Even our government is fallible, and sometimes the government just gets it wrong."  The gov said the scheme to boost prices to $12.99 & $14.99 was encouraged by Steve Jobs.  The trial results from a lawsuit last year that accused the company of seeking to enter the market for e-books in 2010 in a way that would guarantee it 30% profits.  A separate court proceeding could be conducted to quantify harm to consumers.  The outcome of this trial could be VERY BIG!  AAPL stock was up pocket change.

Apple (AAPL)


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Dow soared today while the rest of the stock market took a breather.  Go figgah!!  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said central bank officials are committed to record stimulus measures.  Since market breath was negative & NAZ had a limited advance, it's hard to take this rally seriously.  The high yield sector remains under pressure, another sign that all is not well in the stock market.  The jobs report on Fri could give signals that are difficult to understand.  If it's stronger than forecasted, that "good" news might suggest the FED could ease up on pumping money into the economy.  But Dow remains close to its recent record highs.

Dow Jones Inudstrials

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Markets fluctuate after mixed data from Europe and China

Dow added 41, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ lost 17. The MLP index slipped a fraction to the 442s & the REIT index rebounded 2+ to the 288s.  Junk bond funds slid back & Treasuries were mixed with a little buying for the 10 year Treasury.  Oil rose & gold pushed back over 1400.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.03%

U.S. 2-year

0.29%

U.S. 10-year

2.11%

CLN13.NYM...Crude Oil Jul 13...92.67 Up ...0.70 (0.8%)

GCN13.CMX...Gold Jul 13.....1,400.00 Up ...7.20 (0.5%)









Chrysler U.S. Sales Rise as Ram Leads Surge in Pickup Deliveries

Photo:   Bloomberg

US sales for Chrysler rose 11% in May, a sign that auto sales rebounded from a slight dip in Apr & will continue to boost the US economy.  The company sold almost 167K cars & trucks last month.  It was the best May since 2007 & its 38th straight year-over-year monthly sales gain.  The performance surprised some analysts who expected a decline for the month.  Ram pickup truck sales were strong, up 22% over a year ago to almost 32K.  This data supports predictions of a strong May for the auto industry.  Memorial Day sales & price cuts from Nissan were expected to draw customers back into dealerships after a slower-than-expected Apr.  Analysts predict that sales will rise 7% over May 2012 to around 1.4M vehicles, putting the industry back on pace for full-year sales of more than 15M.  In Apr, the annualized rate dropped below 15M for the first time in 6 months, causing some concern that the industry's recovery could be slowing.  Chrysler even predicted that total US sales in May would hit an annual rate of 15.5M.

Chrysler U.S. Sales Rise in May, Helped by Ram Pickups


U.K. Factory Index Rises to 14-Month High in May on New Orders

Photo:   Bloomberg

Euro-area manufacturing output contracted less than initially estimated in May & a UK factory index surged, supporting theview that the European economy is stabilizing.  A gauge of manufacturing in the 17-nation euro area increased to 48.3 last month from 46.7 in Apr, according to London-based Markit Economics.  That’s above an initial estimate of 47.8 on May 23.  The gauge has been below 50, indicating contraction, since Jul 2011.  In the UK, a separate report by Markit & the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply showed a factory index climbed to a 14-month high of 51.3 from a revised 50.2 in Apr.  ECB President Draghi said today that while the economic outlook in the euro area is challenging, he still expects a recovery this year & that “there are a few signs of a possible stabilization.”  That assessment was paralleled by Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, who said that there are signs the UK economy is recovering, though output is not expanding “as fast as we’d like it to.”

European Manufacturing Gauges Climb as Outlook Improves


China Growth Limited by Struggling Small Manufacturers

Photo:    Yahoo

China's factory activity shrank for the first time in 7 months in May & growth in the services sector cooled, evidence that the world's 2nd-largest economy is losing further momentum in Q2.  The HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May dropped to 49.2, the lowest level since Oct 2012 & down from 50.4 in Apr, as domestic & overseas demand fell.  The figure was slightly lower than a preliminary reading of 49.6 released on May 23.  Fifty divides expansion from contraction compared with the month before.  In the HSBC manufacturing PMI, compiled by Markit Group, the sub-index for total new orders dipped to 48.7, the first time it has retreated below 50 since last Sep & the new export orders sub index was below 50 for the 2nd consecutive month.  The indices suggested falling demand from both domestic & overseas firms.  China's official manufacturing PMI, released on Sat, rose but remained close to 50. It ticked up to 50.8 in May from April's 50.6, although it also pointed to falling orders from export markets.  The gov official PMI for the non-manufacturing sector, released earlier on Mon, also pointed to a loss of growth.  It fell to 54.3 in May from 54.5 in Apr, the lowest since last Sep.  The figures add to evidence China's economy is struggling for momentum, buffeted by weak exports demand & overcapacity in some industrial sectors.

China Growth Limited by Struggling Small Manufacturers


The new month brings data for May results from automakers & overseas.  Dow was up before the opening in NY, but that enthusiasm did not last.  Of the 30 Dow stocks, only 7 are higher & its rise is due to Merck (MRK) & Intel (INTC).  Markets are floundering presently, looking for direction.  Manufacturing data is coming & Fri is the big jobs report for May.  The high yield sectors remain under pressure although there were a few buyers for REITs today.

Dow Jones Industrials

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