Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Markets crawl higher on growing MidEast tensions

Dow finished up 23 after going into red at lunchtime, advancers over decliners 5-4 & NAZ gained 22.  The MLP index fell 1+ to 435s & the REIT index lost 2+ to the 258s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries fell the most in a month US manufacturing index rose more than forecast in Aug, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve will soon announce plans to reduce monetary stimulus.  Oil advanced as the President sought support in Congress for a military strike on Syria, bolstering concern that oil shipments from the MidEast could be disrupted.  Gold gained for the first time in 4 sessions after Israel tested its missile-defense system, fueling concern that tensions in the MidEast which boosted the appeal of haven assets.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.02%

U.S. 2-year

0.41%

U.S. 10-year

2.85%

CLV13.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 13....108.54 Up ...0.89 (0.8%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Israeli Missile-Defense Test Sends Signal While Rattling Markets

Photo:   Bloomberg

Israel signaled its ability to defend itself with a missile-defense test over the Mediterranean Sea that briefly rattled stock & oil markets on edge over prospects for a US attack on Syria.  As the Obama administration presses Congress to authorize a military strike against Syria, Israel conducted what it called a joint test with the US of its Arrow Ballistic Missile Defense system.  The Israeli Defense Ministry called it a success.  While the Pentagon said it gave only “technical assistance and support” to a “long-planned” test, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said the exercise showed “to anyone who is thinking to attack us -- it’s not worthwhile.”  Netanyahu said the test demonstrated that Israel’s defense is built on an “iron wall, iron dome and iron will.”  “These are the things that give us the strength to defend ourselves, and to anyone who is thinking to attack us - it’s not worthwhile,” Netanyahu said.  The demonstration of Israeli preparedness served as a signal to Syria & to Iran, & dramatized the potential for a regional spillover of a US led offensive against Syria’s chemical weapons capability.  The Israeli Defense Ministry said that “all elements of the system performed according to their operational configuration.”  A lot of people in the MidEast are very tense.

Israel Missile-Defense Test Sends Signal, Rattles Markets


Obama Gets Boehner’s Support in ‘Call to Action’ Against Syria

Photo:   Bloomberg

The President urged Congress to take a “prompt” vote authorizing military action against Syria & won endorsement for the cause from the 2 top Reps in the House.  Backing from House Speaker John Boehner & Majority Leader Eric Cantor will help Obama as he makes his case to lawmakers who’ve questioned the evidence presented that the Syrian gov was behind a sarin gas attack last month or whether the US has a vital interest in the region.  “The use of these weapons has to be responded to, and only the U.S. has the capability,” Boehner said after a White House meeting.  “I’m going to support the president's call for action and I believe my colleagues should support this call for action.”  Cantor released a separate statement of support & House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi also said she’ll back Obama, giving it a bipartisan cast.  While no president has ever been turned down by Congress when asking to use military force, opposition to Obama’s Syria strike plan crosses party & regional lines.  Illustrating the complexity of Obama’s task in persuading lawmakers, the statements of support from the leaders after the morning meeting reflected different views on what the US should do. 



Verizon, a Dow stock, will probably issue $40-$50B of bonds to help finance its purchase of Vodafone’s 45% stake in Verizon Wireless.  A first offering may exceed Apple's (AAPL) record $17B issue in Apr.  Along with borrowing in dollars, VZ also plans to sell notes in £s & €s which surpass an earlier estimate of as much as $30B in bonds being offered.  The $130B transaction would give VZ full control of the most profitable US mobile-phone carrier.  Major banks are supplying a $61B bridge credit facility, which VZ plans to reduce “with the issuance of permanent financing,” VZ said.  VZ expects to maintain finances that are consistent with investment-grade credit.  Moody’s lowered its rank one level yesterday to Baa1, 3 levels above speculative grade, to reflect an increase in leverage, & S&P cut its rating to an equivalent BBB+.  The stock fell 1.37.

Verizon Said to Plan Up to $50 Billion of Bonds for Mobile Unit

Verizon (VZ)


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Traders are watching DC to see if there will be a strike against Syria.  For the time being, Big Ben is not center stage.  But next week he will be back in focus as the Sep FOMC meeting approaches.  Yield sensitive securities (MLPS, REITs, munis, etc) are continuing to sell off in anticipation of a change in the bond buying program by the Federal Reserve.  The jobs report on Fri will be an important part of any decision.

Dow Jones Industrials

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Higher markets on US manufacturing growth

Dow shot up 96. advancers over decliners a muted 2-1 & NAZ rose 42.  The MLP index edged up a fraction to 438 & the REIT index was off 2+ to the 258s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries sold off with the yield on the 10 year Treasury back at 2.9%.  Oil rose on higher tensions in the MidEast & gold sneaked back over 1400.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.02%

U.S. 2-year

0.42%

U.S. 10-year

2.88%

CLV13.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 13...107.08 Down ...0.57  (0.5%)

GCU13.CMX...Gold Sep 13...1,399.50 Up ...3.40 (0.2%)









Workers assemble built-in appliances at the Whirlpool manufacturing plant in Cleveland, Tennessee August 21, 2013. REUTERS/Chris Berry

Photo:   Yahoo

The US manufacturing sector grew last month at its fastest pace in more than 2 years, bolstering expectations for faster overall growth in H2.  The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity rose to 55.7 in Aug from 55.4 the prior month, comfortably beating expectations for 54.  It was the highest reading since Jun 2011.  A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.  New orders also marked their best level in more than 2 years, with that sub-index jumping to 63.2 from 58.3.  Employment, however, slipped to 53.3 from 54.4.  The gov will release its Aug employment report on Fri & the forecast is that employers added 180K new jobs last month after hiring 162K workers in Jul.  Manufacturing has been hurt this year by cuts in gov spending & weaker global demand, causing the sector to shrink in May.  But sizable increases in activity in Jul & Aug are adding to views that US goods-producing companies are finding their footing as the year wears on.  Data last week showed the economy grew at a quicker-than-expected pace in Q2 & should continue to gain momentum.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Rose to 55.7 in August From 55.4


Construction spending in the US increased in Jul to the highest level in 4 years, propelled by gains in residential real estate.  Outlays climbed 0.6% to a $901B annual rate, the most since Jun 2009, after being little changed in Jun according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast called for a 0.4% increase.  Gains in employment, housing & non-residential building in H2 will probably help strengthen the economic expansion.  Nonetheless, tight land inventories, rising mortgage rates may temper the pace of the industry’s recovery.  Figures for May were also revised up.  Construction spending increased 5.2% in the 12 months ending Jul according to Commerce Dept data.  Private home building outlays increased 0.6% to the highest level in 5 years.  The gain included a 0.8% increase in home improvement from Jun.  Non-residential building climbed 1.3%, reflecting a jump in factory construction.  But outlays on public projects dropped 0.3%.  Federal spending increased 1.1%, the biggest gain since Oct, while state & local declined 0.4%.  Construction helped the economy pick up steam in Q2 as GDP increased at a more-than-expected 2.5% annualized rate after a 1.1% gain in Q1.  Residential construction increased at a 12.9% annualized rate.

Construction Spending in U.S. Climbed in July to Four-Year High


Microsoft Corp. CEO Steve Ballmer

Photo:   Bloomberg

Microsoft, a Dow stock, agreed to buy Nokia's handset unit & license its patents for €5.4B ($7.2B), seeking to revive 2 smartphone businesses that have struggled for a half-decade to gain market share.  The devices & services unit, which accounted for half of Nokia’s 2012 revenue, along with 32K employees, will transfer to MSFT in its biggest foray into hardware as sliding PC sales threaten demand for Windows.  The all-cash transaction, subject to Nokia investors’ approval, is expected to be completed in Q1 of 2014.  “It’s a big transformation, but that’s what you’ve got to do in the tech business to move forward,” MSFT CEO Steve Ballmer said.  The stock fell 1.81.

Microsoft Buys Nokia Handset Unit for $7.2 Billion to Catch Up With Apple

Microsoft (MSFT)


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This  is a lazy kind of first trading day in the new month.  Traders are returning after holidays & vacations, & their gut reactions are to buy stocks although market breadth is not encouraging.  Favorable economic data is also being digested by the biggies at the Federal Reserve & will be part of their decisions at the FOMC meeting in 2 weeks on what to do with interest rates   Higher rates are coming.  Meanwhile politicos in DC will very busy trying to figure out what to do about Syria.  Then there is the budget mess, funding next year's spending, & raising the debt ceiling.  All that uncertainty may not be baked into the markets.

Dow Jones Industrials

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