Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Markets rise on August China factory output

Dow shot up another 113, advancers ahead of decliners a mild 2-1 & NAZ gained 21 (a new high since the heady days of 2000).  The MLP index rose 2+ to the 441s & the REIT index was flat in the 267s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries retreated, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury near 3%.  Oil & gold tumbled on on prospects for reduced tensions over Syria.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.02%

U.S. 2-year

0.46%

U.S. 10-year

2.96%

CLV13.NYMCrude Oil Oct 13106.90 Down 2.62 (2.4%)
GCU13.CMXGold Sep 131,358.00 Down 28.80 (2.1%)









Congressional leaders of both parties will meet on Thurs to discuss gov funding & the debt ceiling.  Harry Reid sent a letter to John Boehner, requesting the meeting.  The 2 will meet along with Mitch McConnell & Nancy Pelosi.  The White House & lawmakers have failed to come up with an enduring compromise to keep the gov running & avoid a rerun of the ongoing showdowns over the debt limit.  House Reps have put together a plan to enact a stopgap gov funding measure by forcing the Senate to take a largely symbolic vote on defunding Obamacare.  The proposal, presented today, would allow a short-term spending measure to be enacted even if the Senate voted not to strip funding from the Obamacare.  Only after the Senate voted on defunding the health-care law would the House deliver a bill to finance the gov.  The politicos are back!

Congressional Leaders Said to Meet on Budget, Debt Ceiling


A woman begs money from passersby at a pathway in Shanghai, China, Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2013. China's economy appears to be gradually rebounding from its deepest slump since the 2008 crisis, but analysts say improvement will depend on the strength of global demand for Chinese exports. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)

Photo:   Yahoo

China's factory output expanded in Aug at its fastest rate this year in a new sign the economy is recovering from its deepest slump since the 2008 global crisis.  Industrial production rose 10.4%, accelerating from 9.7% in Jul, gov data showed.  The signs of economic revival will ease pressure on Chinese leaders who want to focus on longer-term structural reforms needed to keep economic growth strong.  Communist leaders want to nurture more self-sustaining growth driven by domestic consumption instead of trade & investment.  They responded to the unexpectedly sharp decline in growth this year with higher spending on railway construction & a small business tax cut, but have resisted pressure for a more ambitious stimulus.  Export growth accelerated to 7.2% in Aug from 5.1% in the prior month.  Also in Aug, consumer inflation edged down to 2.6% from 2.7% in Jul.  Wholesale prices that have declined steadily for more than a year fell less sharply in another sign of growing demand.

China August Industrial Output Rises 10.4%


Job openings in the US fell in Jul to the lowest level in 6 months, signaling uneven progress in employment.  The number of positions waiting to be filled declined 180K to 3.69M, from a revised 3.87M the prior month that was weaker than initially reported, according to the Labor Dept.  Hiring rose & layoffs cooled.  The report, following data last week showing payrolls grew less than forecast in Aug, indicating the labor market was struggling to gain momentum at the start of Q3.  Federal Reserve officials, due to meet next Tues & Wed, are debating whether the economy & job market have improved enough to warrant trimming $85B in monthly bond purchases.  Today’s report helps shed light on the dynamics behind the monthly employment figures.  Payrolls expanded 169K workers last month after rising 104K in Jul, Labor Dept data showed.  The jobless rate dropped to 7.3% in Aug, the lowest since Dec 2008, as workers left the labor force.  Today’s Jobs Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) report showed the number hired climbed to 4.42M in Jul, keeping the hiring rate at 3.2%.  Job openings decreased at construction companies, retailers, health service providers & gov agencies.  They increased in manufacturing, & accommodation & food services.  The data also showed layoffs waned.  Total dismissals, excluding retirements & those who left their job voluntarily, decreased to 1.5M from 1.6M a month before.  Another 2.27M quit their jobs in Jul, up from 2.21M the prior month.  The quits rate climbed to 1.7% from 1.6%.  In the 12 months ended in Jul, the economy created a net 1.9M jobs, representing 52.1M hires & 50.2M separations.  Considering the 11.5M who were unemployed in Jul, today’s figures indicate there are about 3.1 people vying for every opening, up from about 1.8 when the last recession began in Dec 2007.

Job Openings in U.S. Fell by 180,000 in July to 3.69 Million


Stocks are extending their winning streak to 6 days while a possible attack on Syria remains in the headlines.  Now that Russia is proposing a way out of the attack, investors are continuing to bid up prices.  But Russia's proposal should be treated with caution because there is a lot of doubt about ending this mess quickly.  Meanwhile, the politicos are back & trying to handle gov finances.  My focus is on uncertainty & it is running high on the intl scene and in DC.

Dow Jones Industrials

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Monday, September 9, 2013

Markets rise for a fifth day

Dow jumped 140 (closing near the highs), advancers over decliners better than 3-1 & NAZ added 46.  The MLP index rose 5+ to the 439s & the REIT index was up 5+ to the 267s.  Junk bond funds were generally higher & Treasuries had a good day.  Oil slid lower & gold was flat.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart








Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.01%

U.S. 2-year

0.43%

U.S. 10-year

2.90%

CLV13.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 13....109.49 Down ...1.04  (0.9%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





Americans cut back on using their credit cards in Jul for the 2nd straight month, while taking on more debt to buy cars & attend school.  The Federal Reserve says consumers increased their borrowing $10.4B in Jul from Jun to a record high of $2.85T.  That followed an $11.9B gain in Jun.  But a measure of borrowing that includes credit card debt fell $1.8B following an even larger $3.7B decline in Jun.  The category that includes auto loans & student loans increased $12.3B after an even larger $15.6B gain in Jun.  The reduction in credit card debt suggests that consumers remain cautious about accumulating high-interest debt which could hold back consumer spending (70% of economic activity).

US consumer borrowing rises $10.4 billion in July Associated Press


Dell logos are seen at its headquarters in Cyberjaya, outside Kuala Lumpur September 4, 2013. REUTERS/Bazuki Muhammad

Photo:   Yahoo

Carl Icahn said he was bowing out of an effort to block founder Michael Dell's proposed buyout of Dell, determining "it would be almost impossible to win."  The move will likely put an end to a 6 month battle between Michael Dell & Silver Lake Partners.  In a letter to shareholders, Icahn cited a change in the record date for stockholders allowed to vote on the proposed takeover by Dell & Silver Lake, as well as a ruling that the gap period between the Sep 12 meeting & the annual meeting was legal.  Icahn, the 2nd-largest shareholder with an 8.9% stake, had wanted to nominate a slate of directors to replace several board members, arguing that they are not acting in shareholders' best interests in accepting the CEO's deal.  With Icahn's retreat, the odds are in favor of the CEO's deal being approved at the special meeting on Thurs.  The meeting had been postponed 3 times as Michael Dell & Silver Lake struggled to round up the needed votes or convince "no" votes to support the deal.  Icahn & Southeastern Asset Management have repeatedly argued that the $25B proposal by Michael Dell & Silver Lake  undervalues the company.  Michael Dell has said the company's shift from a computer maker to a provider of enterprise computing services is best done away from public scrutiny.  The stock was flat.

Icahn Gives Up Fight for Dell While Criticizing Founder’s Offer as Too Low

Dell (DELL)


stock chart


Microsoft, a Dow stock, is making its Xbox Music service available on Android & iOS devices to compete.  The $9.99-a-month Xbox Music Pass, which provides unlimited, advertising-free streaming, can be used for the first time on iPhones & devices running Android software, Scott Porter, principal program manager at XBox Music, said.  The expansion gives MSFT access to the biggest smartphone platforms as it guns for the leaders in digital music.  “Music needs to be something that freely connects between devices for users to be happy,” Porter said.  Windows users “spent time curating and discovering new music and we need to give them access wherever they are.”
Listeners can access Xbox Music on a smartphone, tablet, Xbox 360 or the coming Xbox One video game console, Porter added.  A free, ad-supported online version allows tracks to be shared with people who use an Apple (AAPL) PC.  New Xbox Music features will be introduced when MSFT starts selling Windows 8.1 in Oct, Porter said.  One such addition will be a Web Playlist tool that grabs all the music on a Web page to create a list of songs.  MSFT rose 50¢.

Microsoft Expands Xbox Music Service to Android, Apple Devices

Microsoft (MSFT)


stock chart


Not quite sure what's behind the buying.  But Dow is up almost 300 in 5 days while the big news was the possible bombing of Syria.  The politicos are back in DC & they will come to a decision about that this week.  Then it's back to mundane things, like funding gov spending for another year, raising the debt ceiling & last minute fine tuning for Obamacare.  Tomorrow AAPL has it iPhone announcement.  It's up 18 this month in anticipation of the product announcements.

Dow Jones Industrials

stock chart







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Higher markets on Chinese export data

Dow rose 86, advancers over decliners 3-1 & NAZ was up 22.  The MLP index gained a fraction to the 434s & the REIT index added 1+ to the 263s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries rose.  Oil slipped back while gold edged higher.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treausry yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.01%

U.S. 2-year

0.43%

U.S. 10-year

2.89%

CLV13.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 13...110.14 Down ...0.39 (0.4%)

GCU13.CMX...Gold Sep 13......1,389.50 Up ...2.80 (0.2%)







Port in Shanghai

Photo:   Bloomberg

China exports increased more than estimated in Aug & inflation stayed below a gov target, helping Premier Li Keqiang sustain a rebound from a 2-qtr slowdown.  Overseas shipments rose 7.2% from a year earlier, according to the General Administration of Customs, exceeding the 5.5% estimate.  Consumer prices rose 2.6%, the statistics bureau said, leaving room for extra stimulus if needed.  The producer-price index fell by the least in 6 months while exports to the US & Eu grew for a 2nd month, underscoring improvements in demand inside & outside China.  Imports rose a less-than-estimated 7% from a year earlier, leaving a trade surplus of more than $28b.  Exports rose 5.1% in Jul.  Li, in an opinion article today, said the economy “will maintain its sustained and healthy growth,” with expansion around a 7.5% “lower limit” intended to ensure steady growth & employment.  Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng said he’s confident the nation will meet its 8% target for trade gains for the year.  The gov is seeking to keep consumer-price gains within 3.5% this year.  Li wrote that the level is in line with an “upper limit” of economic performance meant to prevent inflation.

China Trade Rebounds in Further Sign Economy Stabilizing


Rising mortgage rates probably won’t slow the housing recovery because new families are being created & homes are still affordable, according to Wells Fargo (WFC) CFO Tim Sloan said.  “We don’t believe that the recent increases in mortgage rates are going to in any way, shape or form snuff out the housing recovery,” Sloan said.  “When you look at any sort of statistics in the demographics in terms of household creation as well as household affordability, they are still very attractive and should drive a continued recovery in the housing business.”  The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has risen more than 1.2 percentage points since hitting a low of 3.35% in May, according to Freddie Mac data.  But that hasn’t slowed US home prices, which rose 7.7% in the year thru Jun, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac’s & Fannie Mae’s overseer.  WFC is the largest U.S. mortgage lender, originating about 1 in 4 home loans in H1.

Wells Fargo Says Rising Rates Won’t Snuff Out Housing Recovery


Stocks rose on nervous trading.  Nobody is sure what to do with the prospect of a strike on Syria looming in the background.  A decision be Congress is a couple of days away.  The jobs data on Fri was mediocre, showing so-so growth which probably will not deter the FOMC from its plans, assuming it wants to start tapering the bond buying program.  Pres Obama will be addressing the nation on Syria & the pres of Syria gave an interview, telling his side.  In this very confusing situation, it's difficult to see the markets do very much.

Dow Jones Industrials

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