Thursday, May 1, 2014

Markets waiver amid favorable economic data

Dow slid back 21, advancers only marginally ahead of decliners & NAZ added 12.  The MLP index rose 1+ to the 483s & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 295s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries saw buying on growing tensions between Russia & Ukraine.  Oil remained weak after yesterday's inventory report & gold fell further below 1300.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)






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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.02%

U.S. 2-year

0.41%

U.S. 10-year

2.60%

CLM14.NYM....Crude Oil Jun 14....99.47 Down ...0.27  (0.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Manufacturing picked up in Apr after consumer spending surged the prior month, showing the US economy is poised to lift off in Q2.  The Institute for Supply Management factory index rose to 54.9 (the strongest so far this year) from 53.7 in Mar.  Readings above 50 indicate expansion.  Household purchases climbed in Mar by the most since Aug 2009, according to Commerce Dept data.  Sales are increasing at automakers as the weather warms.  The data bear out the view of Federal Reserve policy makers who yesterday looked beyond weak growth in Q1 & projected the economy would speed up.US factories weren’t the only ones gaining momentum.  UK manufacturing grew more than forecast in Apr as output surged to an 8-month high & exports increased, according to data from Markit Economics.  But the news was less upbeat in Asia as a purchasing manager index showed China’s manufacturing grew less than estimated.

Manufacturing Picks Up as U.S. Consumers Spend: Economy


Ukraine's easternmost regions are slipping from gov grasp as separatists take over more official buildings, with the IMF warning extra financing may be needed if control of the industrial heartland is lost.  Armed men stormed the Donetsk regional prosecutors’ office today, throwing stones & stun grenades.  Pro-Russian rebels in nearby Slovyansk said they’d begun talks to swap intl monitors abducted last week.  Acting Ukrainian pres Oleksandr Turchynov signed a decree backed by lawmakers last month to reinstate a military draft.  “The government doesn’t control the situation in Donetsk as well as part of the Donetsk region,” Turchynov said yesterday.  “Because there is a real threat of Russia starting a continental war, our army is on full combat alert.”  The IMF, which approved a $17B bailout for Ukraine early today, said “a significant recalibration of the program” might be required if the situation worsens.  The US & EU accuse Russia of stoking the turmoil, which has worsened even after they ratcheted up sanctions on Russian interests.  Russia says Ukraine’s rulers must listen to complaints in the east & cede powers to the regions.  German Chancellor Merkel urged Russian pres Putin to help free the detained observers.  With the crisis straining Ukraine’s shrinking economy, the gov will get an immediate $3.2B disbursement under the IMF program to help it meet $9B in debt payments it’s facing this year.  The loan approval unlocks $27B in intl aid.  GDP fell 1.1% from a year earlier in Q1 as industrial production & the hryvnia currency slumped amid deadly protests and Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

Ukraine’s East Unravels as IMF Warns on Financing


MasterCard posted Q1 profit that beat estimates on increased customer spending.  EPS was 73¢, above 62¢, a year earlier.  The estimate was for adjusted EPS of 72¢.  CEO Ajay Banga is boosting divs & repurchasing shares as MA benefits from a global shift from cash & checks to electronic forms of payment.  The company saw an increase in spending on credit & debit cards in Latin America, Asia & the US.  “We do have some challenges with Russia and the European payments industry regulation,” Banga said.  “But you know what? There are opportunities, too, around the world which we believe give us some balance.”  Revenue increased 14% $2.18B, topping the $2.14B estimate.  Worldwide purchase volume growth was 13%.  Operating expenses increased 12% to $892M as the company spent more on advertising & marketing.  The company repurchased $1.7B of shares.  Banja expects a “small impact” on 2014 results from US tensions with Russia.  The longer-term effects from sanctions & Russia’s efforts to impose new regulations on the payments industry are less clear, he said.  “It’s a complicated issue,” Banga said, adding that MA gets about 2% of total net revenue from the country.  “It’s a good growth market, so I don’t like it, but it’s what’s happening. It’s what we have to deal with.”  The stock rose 67¢.  If you would like to learn more about MA, click on this link for Trend Analysis:
http://club.ino.com/trend/?symb=MA&a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

MasterCard First-Quarter Profit Beats Estimates as Customer Spending Rises

Mastercard (MA)




This was a puzzling day in the markets.  The economic data was quite good.  Consumer spending & manufacturing data showed the economy is bouncing back after a tough winter.  Even the rise in jobless claims can be blamed on seasonal adjustments.  Tomorrow the jobs report will be released before the markets open & that should give more data supporting an economic recovery in the US.  But all is not well in the rest of the world, starting with the Ukraine.  A worsening situation can to do a lot of damage to the world's economy.  Dow remains a smidgen below yesterday's record.

Dow Jones Industrials








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Markets waffle despite higher consumer spending

Dow slid 8, advancers barely ahead of decliners & NAZ jumped 20.  The MLP index went up 1+ to the 483s & the REIT index lost 1+ to the 292s.  Junk bond funds rose & Treasuries were also higher.  Oil fell to a 6-week low after US crude inventories extended a record high.  Gold sold off again.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.02%

U.S. 2-year

0.41%

U.S. 10-year

2.63%

CLM14.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 14...99.37 Down .....0.37  (0.4%)

GCK14.CMX...Gold May 14....1,280.30 Down ...15.30  (1.2%)










Consumer spending surged in Mar by the most in almost 5 years as warmer weather brought shoppers back to auto-dealer lots & malls, a sign the US economy gained momentum heading into Q2.  Household purchases climbed 0.9%, the most since Aug 2009, after a 0.5% gain in Feb that was larger than previously estimated, according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast called for a 0.6% gain.  Incomes increased by the most in 7 months.  Continued gains in employment may lift consumer confidence & give households the means to spend after usually harsh winter weather held them back.  Incomes climbed 0.5%, the most since Aug & exceeding the for a 0.4% gain.  After adjusting consumer spending for inflation, which generates the figures used to calculate GDP, purchases increased 0.7%, also the most since Aug 2009, after a 0.4% gain.  Spending on durable goods, including automobiles, surged 2.7% after adjusting for inflation, the biggest gain in 4 years, following a 1.3% increase in Feb.  Purchases of non-durable goods, which include gasoline, rose 0.9%.  Outlays on services increased 0.4% after adjusting for inflation following a 0.2% increase in Feb.  The biggest contributor was a jump in utility outlays.  Spending on health care also rose, though by less than in the prior 2 months.  Outlays on health services surged 9.9% at an annualized rate in Q! from Q4, the most since 1980, as Americans began to use the insurance under Obamacare. 

Consumer Spending in U.S. Jumps by Most in Five Years


Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Climb to Nine-Week High
Photo:   Bloomberg

Applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly climbed to a 9-week high, underscoring the difficulty adjusting the data for seasonal variations such as the Easter holiday & spring recess at schools.  Jobless claims rose 14K to 344K last week, the highest level since Feb, according to the Labor Dept.  The forecast called for 320K.  A more subdued pace of layoffs would give managers room to step up hiring depending on how much demand picks up after the economy stagnated in Q1.  Federal Reserve officials, who yesterday announced a further reduction in the pace of monetary stimulus, said the job market is improving.  The 4-week average of claims increased to 320K from 317K in the prior week.  The number continuing to receive jobless benefits rose 97K to 2.77M in the latest week.  The unemployment rate among those eligible for benefits increased to 2.1% from 2% in the prior week.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Climb to Nine-Week High


Exxon, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, posted higher-than-expected profit as intl sanctions against Russian interests clouded the oil explorer’s efforts to tap some of the world’s biggest crude reserves.  Q1 EPS was $2.10 which compares with $2.12, a year earlier.  EPS exceeded all estimates & surpassed the average by 22¢.  Russia's oil & gas riches are key to CEO Rex Tillerson's plans for reviving output at the world’s biggest energy explorer by market value.  Global production has fallen in 10 of the past 11 qtrs & net income is in the midst of the longest slide since the financial crisis of 2008-2009.  XOM slashed spending on drilling & acquisitions outside the US by 41% to $5.2B & almost tripled asset sales to amass cash.  The balance-sheet measures helped offset a larger-than-expected 5.6% drop in oil & natural gas production exacerbated by lower crude prices.  Revenue declined 1.5% to $106.8B.  Global production fell to the equivalent of 4.15M barrels a day, the lowest Q1 average since the 1999 acquisition of Mobil.  XOM has staked out the largest non-US exploration claim in Russia, the world’s biggest source of crude last year, in a partnership with state-controlled OAO Rosneft.  It has exclusive exploration access to 11.4M acres at the end of last year, according to a recent filing.  XOM is allocating $39.8B to capital projects this year, including hundreds of millions for an exploratory well in Russia’s Kara Sea, above the Arctic circle, as part of a 29-year agreement signed with Rosneft in 2011.  The stock fell 77¢.  If you would like to learn more about XOM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/XOM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Exxon’s First-Quarter Profit Declines Less Than Expected

Exxon Mobil (XOM)




News about rising consumer spending should have brought out buyers.  But it didn't.  Yesterday's GDP report for Q1 was weak & higher consumer spending implies the economy is correcting quickly.  Higher claims for unemployment benefits is really a non event, given the many adjustments that were made.  But yesterday, Dow just squeaked out a record high (finally) & there was no oomph behind it today.  This is not what the bulls want to see. 

Dow Jones Industrials