Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Markets meander after US auto sales data

Dow climbed 10, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ lost 25.  The MLP index slipped a fraction to 537 & the REIT index rose pocket change to the 312s.  Junk bond funds were lower & Treasuries gained.  Oil had a major rebound after weeks of selling & gold finally found buyers.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)










CLV14.NYM....Crude Oil Oct 14....95.58 Up ...2.70 (2.9%)

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Chrysler reported its best Aug for US vehicle deliveries in 12 years, while Ford (F), Toyota, Honda & Nisson also posted results that surpassed projections.  Chrysler sales rose 20%, Nissan deliveries rose 12%, & Ford’s gained 0.4%.  Chrysler forecast an annualized sales pace for the market in Aug of 17.4M, including medium & heavy-duty trucks that typically account for at least 200K annual sales.  The sales rate hasn’t exceeded 17M since Jul 2006, when it was 17.2M, according to researcher Autodata.  Chrysler, wholly owned by Fiat, is on an unprecedented winning streak that now stretches to almost 4½ years.  As its Jeep brand benefits from consumers’ renewed attraction to SUVs, the group also has been aided by strong demand for Ram trucks & Town & Country minivans.  Group sales were projected to rise 12%. Jeep sales rose 49% in Aug.  Ford had its best Aug sales in 8 years, with Fusion & Escape models setting records for the month.  F-Series pickup sales fell 4.2% as the automaker closed one of 2 factories that makes the truck last month to begin preparations for a new, aluminum-bodied model.  The automaker said it reduced incentives on its pickups by $650 in Aug for an average price of about $41K.  General Motors (GM) sales slid 1.2%, worse than the 0.1% decline predicted.  While the automaker reported declines for 3 of its 4 brands, including an 18% drop by Cadillac, its profitable trucks did well.  Chevrolet Silverado pickup sales rose 13% to 49K, Cadillac Escalade SUV sales rose 89% & GMC Yukon sales more than doubled.

Chrysler Leads Automakers Topping Sales Estimates in August


CVS Caremark halted sales of tobacco products almost a month ahead of schedule, started a smoking-cessation campaign, & changed its name to position itself as health-care provider in the growing US market.  CVS Health, as the company now calls itself, will forgo $2B in annual revenue as it becomes the first national pharmacy chain to end tobacco sales.  None of its rivals have followed suit.  CVS, the biggest US seller of prescription drugs, is seeking to emphasize its health-care offerings as Obamacaret added 8M to insurance rolls nationwide.  CVS operates 7.7K drugstores, 900 walk-in medical clinics & a pharmacy-benefits manager with almost 65M members.  CVS has put information about its smoking cessation program in the coveted spot behind the checkout counters that used to house cigarettes & chewing tobacco.  Company officials have said they don’t plan to cut back on other unhealthy products, such as high-fat snacks & sugar-laden soft drinks that are a staple of the stores.  “By eliminating cigarettes and tobacco products from sale in our stores, we can make a difference in the health of all Americans,” CEO Larry Merlo said.  “Consumers are increasingly taking control of their own health and, through our 26,000 pharmacists and nurse practitioners, we are helping people on their path to better health.”  In the last decade, CVS has expanded in health care by opening 860 in-store clinics in 38 states & the DC with nurses & physician assistants who can diagnose & write prescriptions for minor illnesses.  The company plans to add at least 150 new clinics this year.  It also has alliances with 40 major health systems in the US, which streamlines the coordination of care between traditional doctor’s offices, hospitals & the clinics.  The stock rose 63¢.  If you would like to learn more about CVS, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/CVS?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

CVS (CVS)




Pres Obama said a video showing the beheading of a 2nd American journalist by Islamic State underscores the need for a global alliance to confront the extremist group.  The recording shows the execution of captured freelance journalist Steven Joel Sotloff by the militant Sunni group that controls a swath of eastern Syria & northern Iraq.  “It’s not only that we’re going to be bringing to justice those that perpetrated this terrible crime against these fine young men,” Obama said today.  “The United States will continue to lead a regional and international effort against the barbaric” & “empty” vision of Islamic State, he said.  The recording, which Obama’s administration judged authentic, ends with another prisoner kneeling in an orange jumpsuit -- just as Sotloff was shown at the end of the recording on Foley’s killing.  The captive in the new video is identified as David Cawthorne Haines, a British citizen.  US lawmakers responded by urging Obama to step up his efforts to forge a coalition of nations to take on Islamic State & some called for him to increase the limited airstrikes over Iraq & expand them into neighboring Syria.  Some administration officials have said they & Obama are wary of expanding the direct US military role.  Doing so risks assisting the extremists’ efforts to portray the conflict as part of a centuries-old war against Islam by Christian crusaders & Jews.  UK Prime Minister Cameron, calling Sotloff’s murder “despicable and barbaric,” said yesterday that Islamic State terrorists “speak for no religion.  They threaten Syrians, Iraqis, American & British people alike & make no distinction between Muslims, Christians or any other faith.”  Obama is sending administration officials, including Sec Kerry, to the Mideast to seek support from countries in the region.  Obama said airstrikes have halted Islamic State advances in Iraq, while acknowledging that it will take time to “degrade and destroy” the militant movement.  “This is not going to be a one-week or one-month or six-month proposition,” he added.

Obama Says Beheading Shows Need for Global Bid to Confront Islamic State


NAZ was hurt by Apple (AAPL) selling off 4+ from its record highs, on anxiety about next week's meeting with major product launches.  The intl scene remains gloomy.  The Ukraine situation may be calming down, although it's difficult to see that as fighting continues.  The new Islamic state adds tensions in the MidEast where tensions are already high.  US auto sales looked good last month, but consumer attitudes & spending have been inconsistent.  Dow & S&P 500 remain inches from record highs in spite of all these worries.

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Markets advance cautiously on easing Ukraine tensions

Dow gained 52, advancers over decliners almost 3-2 & NAZ fell 6.  The MLP index was fractionally lower in the 537s & the REIT index went up a fraction to the 312s.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries pulled back.  Oil gained on the Ukraine news & gold inched higher.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)



CLV14.NYM....Crude Oil Oct 14...94.13 Up ....1.25 (1.4%)

GCU14.CMX...Gold Sep 14......1,264.80 Up ...1.10 (0.1%)










Pres Putin outlined a peace plan for Ukraine after agreeing with his Ukrainian counterpart Poroshenko on steps toward a cease-fire in the conflict that has raged for more than 5 months.  Putin called for an end to the rebels’ offensive in the country’s easternmost regions & urged the withdrawal of the Ukrainian military from residential areas as part of a 7-point proposal he presented today in Mongolia.  A final agreement may be reached at a meeting on Fri, he said.  Putin & Poroshenko agreed on a “cease-fire regime” & the steps toward peace, the Ukrainian pres said.  A lasting truce would be the biggest breakthrough yet.  Ukraine, the US & Europe accuse Putin of backing pro-Russian rebels with troops & equipment. Russia, which faces further sanctions as early as this week over the unrest, has repeatedly denied involvement.  Even amid talk of a truce, the fighting in eastern Ukraine intensified, with gov forces bracing to defend the port city of Mariupol.  While conciliatory statements from Russia haven’t always led to de-escalation in the past & previous cease-fires failed to hold, this is Poroshenko’s most definitive statement yet on progress in finding a solution to the conflict.  Pres Obama, in Estonia today to reassure eastern European NATO members of their security before heading to the alliance’s summit in the UK, expressed skepticism over the announcement.  “We haven’t seen a lot of follow-up on so-called announced cease-fires,” Obama said.  If Russia “is serious about a political settlement, that is something we are hopeful for. I’ll leave it up to others to interpret Mr. Putin’s psychology on this.”  Putin said his plan includes an end to the military offensive in the Donetsk & Luhansk regions by all sides.  He also called for “full-fledged” intl oversight over the truce & urged an end the use of warplanes in residential areas, proposed prisoner swaps without conditions & called for humanitarian corridors.  A cease-fire mutually declared by the members of the contact group could allow Russia to avoid further sanctions.

Putin Offers Ukraine Peace Plan After Truce Talks


China’s Service Industries
Photo:   Bloomberg

China's service industries strengthened in Aug, contrasting with declining manufacturing gauges & suggesting a transition away from factory-led growth.  The non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index advanced to 54.4 from 54.2 in Jul, the National Bureau of Statistics & China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing said.  A separate services gauge from HSBC Holdings & Markit Economics surged to a 17-month high of 54.1, from 50 in Jul. Readings above 50 for both gauges indicate expansion.  Aug data point to divergent trends in employment across manufacturing & services, according to a statement from HSBC & Markit.  The manufacturing PMI, also released by NBS & CFLP earlier this week, fell to 51.1 in Aug from 51.7 in Jul, missing the 51.2 estimate.  A separate manufacturing gauge given on Mon from HSBC & Markit was 50.2, also falling from 51.7 in Jul.  Services accounted for 46.6% of GDP in H1 2014, 1.3 percentage points higher than the same period a year earlier, the statistics bureau said in Jul. 

China Services Gauges Rebound in Signal of Rebalancing


Toll Brothers, Q3 fiscal earnings more than doubled as rising prices fueled a 53% increase in revenue.  EPS rose to 53¢ from 26¢ a year earlier.  Buyer demand has remained strong at the upper end of the US housing market, especially in areas such as California & New York, where Toll Brothers offers some of its most expensive houses & condominiums.  The average price of new homes sold in Jul rose to $339K, an all-time high, even as sales fell to the slowest pace in 4 months, the Commerce Dept reported.  “We are driven by bottom-line growth and are pleased with our continued margin expansion through what we still believe is a recovering, albeit bumpy, housing cycle,” CEO Douglas Yearley Jr. said.  Under Yearley, TOL has expanded its California & urban high-rise divisions while diversifying into apartment construction as demand for rentals grows.  Signed contracts fell to 1324 homes worth $949M from 1405 homes worth $992.6M.  Revenue rose to $1.06B from $689.2M a year earlier.  The average price of homes sold in the qtr climbed to $732K compared with $651K.  Gross margin excluding interest & writedowns widened to 26.8% from 25.1% a year earlier.  The full-year gross margin will improve by 185-200 basis points compared with fiscal 2013.  The company previously predicted an increase of as little as 175 basis points.  The stock fell 82¢.  If you would like to learn more about TOL, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/TOL?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Toll Profit Jumps After Luxury-Home Builder Increases Prices

Toll Brothers (TOL)




Stocks are greeting the news from Ukraine with a fair amount of skepticism.  The situation remains unclear as details have to be worked out.  Feelings on both sides are raw.  Meanwhile the NATO meetings are being held & they will produce a lot more talk than action.  The MidEast is heating up with the bad guys in Iraq showing how brutal they can be.  Overall, world events do not support a rising stock market.

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