Monday, March 2, 2015

Dow vaults to a new record

Dow rose 155, advancers over decliners a mild 3-2 & NAZ added 44 (going over the magical ceiling of 5K).  The MLP index sank 6+ to the 441s, finding it tough to get above 450, & the REIT index climbed 1+ to the 337s.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries retreated.  Oil bounced off earlier lows, finishing with a modest loss, & gold pulled back.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)












CLJ15.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 15....49.57 Down ...0.19  (0.4%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Greece could need a 3rd bailout deal when its current program expires in Jun because markets may still not be prepared to lend to its gov, even with a euro-area credit line, European Commission VP Valdis Dombrovskis said.  Prime Minister Tsipras said his gov won’t need another bailout.  Greece has received pledges of €240B ($269B) in aid from its 2 rescue packages, & the gov must meet creditor demands to tap remaining funds.  Speculation over whether Greece would need a 3rd bailout has been swirling for a year or more.  German Finance Minister Schaeuble said in Aug 2013 that a new aid program would be needed to help Greece meet its debt obligations & estimates of the country’s needs have ranged from €12-50B.  The gov will have to meet the requirements of its current program in coming weeks, & then see what market conditions will dictate.  “Greece may need an additional arrangement after this program expires,” said Dombrovskis.  He said Tsipras faces different conditions from his predecessor, Antonis Samaras, & may not have the same range of options.  “With the previous government, we were discussing how Greece would move back to the market financing with the help of a precautionary arrangement or enhanced-conditions credit line,” Dombrovksis said.  “Now this scenario, however, seems less likely, given recent financial instability.”  Tsipras won time to sell his policy program to creditors, while trying to keep his party at home on board, when euro-area finance ministers signed off on a bailout extension last month.  Dombrovskis said Greece’s future aid needs are linked to its performance in the current review, which is due to wrap up in Apr. “If we see that the negotiations, as regards the completion of the current program, are moving forward successfully and actually Greece is sticking with its commitments and implementing the necessary reforms, I think it will also be easier to negotiate the next possible package,” Dombrovskis said.  “It also will be easier for Greece to return to market financing.”

Greece May Need Third Rescue, EU Says


Google plans to offer US mobile-phone services on a limited basis & said it will launch solar-powered planes in the coming months to bring wireless-Web access to unconnected areas elsewhere in the world.  “We’re working hard to create a backbone to provide connectivity,” Senior VP Sundar Pichai said.  Building on the success of its Android operating system, selling its own wireless service could enable GOOG to add mobile-device subscribers & make it easier to serve those users ads via smartphones & tablets.  GOOG also is working with mobile carriers to “push the boundaries” of data services in the US, Pichai said.  The initiative will be on a small scale, Pichai said, comparing it to GOOG's fiber broadband project.  He also said GOOG also is working on a service to compete with new payment platforms from Apple (AAPL) & Samsung.  The new Android Pay service will enable other companies to tap into the software platform to help make buying items simpler on smartphones & tablets.  The solar-plane project, called Project Titan, follows Project Loon, a system of high-altitude balloons that carry wireless antennas; & Project Link, another initiative to help bring internet connections to some of the 4B people globally who don’t have access.  “It’s the kind of approach we’ve always done at Google, enabling platforms to make a big difference in people’s lives,” Pichai said.  The is investing more in mobile software & services as consumers increasingly access the internet & digital features through wireless devices.  Android dominates the smartphone industry, with more than 75% of the market, according to researcher IDC.  The stock rose 12+.  If you would like to learn more about GOOG, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GOOG?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Google Unveils Plan to Offer Wireless Services in the U.S.

Google (GOOG)





Hewlett-Packard agreed to acquire wireless-networking company Aruba Networks in a deal valued at roughly $2.7B, expanding it's capabilities in the mobile market.  HPQ is offering $24.67 a share, a 1% discount to Aruba Network's close on Fri, when the stock reached the highest level in nearly 2 years following a report about a possible deal.  Including cash & debt, the companies valued the deal at roughly $3B.  CEO Meg Whitman said the deal will combines Aruba's wireless mobility solutions with HPQ's switching portfolio, allowing the company to offer most secure networking solutions to help enterprises easily deploy next-generation mobile networks.  Aruba Networks reported revenue of $729M in fiscal 2014.  The combined operation will be led by Aruba CEO Dominic Orr & Chief Strategy & Tech Officer Keerti Melkote.  They will report to Antonio Neri, head of HPQ Enterprise Group.  Both companies' boards of directors have approved the deal.  HPQ in Oct unveiled plans to separate its PC & printer businesses from its corp hardware & services operations, which has been billed as the growth engine.  The stock inched up pennies.  If you would like to learn more about HPQ, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/HPQ?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

H-P to Buy Aruba Networks for $2.7B

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)




Stocks had another good day, with the highlight - NAZ.  It finally topped 5K, not seen in 15 years ago (in Mar).  Of course, this is a much different NAZ.  Dot com stocks have come & gone.  A good chunk of the advance is attributable to AAPL & to a lessor extent, GOOG.  The MLP chart is interesting.  After dropping 20% from its peak last year.  It has been trending sideways for 3 months & 1-2% daly swings have become common.  Weakness in the energy business is bleeding thru to MLPs.  MLPs can be expected to tread water for another year, at least.

Dow Jones Industrials






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Higher markets on economic data

Dow shot up 107, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ gained 31  The MLP index fell 1+ to the 446s (continuing its sideways trend for 3 months) & the REIT index went up 3+ to the 339s.  Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries retreated, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury back over 2%.  Oil slid lower in the 49s & gold was off a tad.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CLJ15.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 15...49.10 Down ...0.66  (1.3%)

GCH15.CMX...Gold Mar 15....1,212.20 Down ...0.40  (0.0%)









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Consumer purchases adjusted for inflation rose in Jan, a sign the plunge in gasoline prices is helping boost the biggest part of the US economy.  The 0.3% increase followed a 0.1% drop the prior month, according to the Commerce Dept.  Nominal spending, which doesn’t take into account changes in price, declined 0.2%, more than estimated, while incomes grew 0.3% for a 2nd month.  The best job market since 1999, low borrowing costs & cheaper fuel bills are driving household spending.  Consumption, having wrapped up its strongest quarterly performance in 4 years, may get further support as wages pick up & prices remain contained.  Nominal spending was projected to fall 0.1% & the the estimate called for incomes to rise 0.4%.  Adjusting consumer spending for inflation, which generates the figures used to calculate GDP, purchases of durable goods such as furniture & appliances rose 0.2%.  Demand for non-durable goods also climbed 0.2%.  Outlays on services increased 0.4%, the most since Sep.   Demand for automobiles remains steady.  Major automakers all reported their best Jan US vehicles sales in at least 7 years.  The plunge in energy expenses pushed the measure of inflation based on consumer spending, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, down 0.5% from the prior month.  It was up 0.2% from a year earlier, the least since Oct 2009.  The gauge hasn’t been above the central bank’s 2% goal since Mar 2012.  The core price measure, which excludes food & fuel, rose 0.1% from the prior month & was up 1.3% from Jan 2014.  Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, climbed 0.9% after adjusting for inflation, the biggest jump since Dec 2012.  It was up 0.5% in the prior month.  The saving rate increased to 5.5%, also a 2-year high, from 5%.  Wages & salaries climbed 0.6% after advancing 0.1% in Dec.

U.S. Consumer Spending Rises After Adjusting for Drop in Fuel


The Institute for Supply Management’s index dropped to 52.9, the lowest since Jan 2014, from 53.5 a month earlier.  Readings above 50 indicate growth & the forecast was 53.  Cutbacks in demand from overseas customers & domestic energy producers led to the weakest growth in new orders since May 2013, prompting US factories to slow the rate of hiring.  At the same time, manufacturing is being underpinned by sustained spending from American consumers who are enjoying low prices at the gas pump.  The gauge of new orders declined to 52.5 last month from 52.9 in Jan.  Order backlogs climbed.  Export orders dropped to 48.5, the lowest since Nov 2012, & indicating demand is falling at a faster rate, from 49.5.  In China, a manufacturing gauge in Jan signaled contraction for the first time since Sep 2012 & underscored a slowing economy.  Growth in the euro-area economy increased 0.3% in Q4.  The factory employment index declined to 51.4, the lowest since Jun 2013, from 54.1 the prior month.  The production gauge cooled to 53.7 from 56.5 in Jan.  The report also showed the gauge of factory inventories climbed in Feb to a 4-month high.  An index of prices paid held at 35, the lowest since Apr 2009.

U.S. Manufacturing Grew in February at Slowest Pace in a Year


Intel, a Dow stock, is shipping new mobile chips that represent the semiconductor company's biggest hope for making progress in smartphones this year.  Responding to a growing market in China for low-cost handsets, often priced below $100, INTC plans to launch the chip, code named Sofia, later in the year.  "We went from PowerPoint to shipping in 15 months," said the General Manager of INTC's Platform Engineering Group.  As well as smartphones, the Sofia chip fills a gap in its lineup of chips for tablets.  Over 20 manufactures plan to make devices made with Sofia, with many on display at this week's Mobile World Congress event.  After falling behind in mobile chips, INTC has been rushing to catch up with the competition.  In a costly strategy that elevated INTC to the #2 spot in tablet chip market share, it last year paid manufacturers some of the engineering cost of developing low-end tablets using another chip, code named Bay Trail, that it originally had designed for more expensive devices. The mobile unit had a loss of $4.2B last year, worse than its $3.1B loss in 2013.  The company believes the new Sofia chips are ideal for the fast-growing, low-end smartphone market in Asia & has said it does not plan to use costly subsidies to sell the chips this year.  The Sofia chips currently shipping have 3G features for low-end phones, & 4G versions for pricier smartphones will be released later this year.  The stock rose 44¢.  If you would like to learn more about INTC, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/INTC?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Intel Launches Chip for Low-Price Smartphone Push


Stocks are taking the early signals of Feb economic data as positive, although they look more mixed to me.  Next comes auto sales which will continue showing strength.  The big jobs report is due on Fri & that is expected to make for pleasant reading.  But even relatively good economic data in the US is coming in fits & spurts.  Consumer spending is not as good as it should be in a growing economy & overseas business is a drag while the popular averages hover near record highs.

Dow Jones Industrials