Friday, May 1, 2015

Markets rebound after steep 2 day decline

Dow gained 183, advancers over decliners almost 3-2 & NAZ went up 63.  The MLP index rose 1 to the 453s & the REIT index added 2+ to the 322s.  Junk bond funds were mixed to higher & Treasuries sank, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury over 2.1% (a 7 week high).  Oil fell as Iraq exports reached a new record & gold retreated to a 6 week low.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)











CLM15.NYM....Crude Oil Jun 15....58.98 Down ...0.65  (1.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]



Greece & its intl creditors were locked in intense negotiations over a long holiday weekend as they raced against the clock to avert a default as early as this month. While talks have picked up pace in recent days, the 2 sides still have ground to cover to bridge differences on stalled reforms.  That’s making it uncertain there would be enough progress to clinch a deal in time for a May 11 meeting of euro-area finance ministers.  Greek Prime Minister Tsipras told his cabinet on yesterday that he's confident a deal is close, even as his gov sent conflicting signals on its willingness to agree on reforms required under the €240B ($270B) bailout.  Faced with debt payments totaling about €1B to the IMF on May 6 & 12, Greece hopes there will be enough progress in the talks by next week to allow the ECB to restore liquidity access for the country’s cash-strapped banks.  Greece & its creditors stepped up efforts to break the impasse with a target to reach a deal by Sun.  While there has been progress in terms of the process after Tsipras reshuffled the negotiating team, there is still a long way to go on the substance, according to a leaker.  The official said that the Greek gov economic assumptions are very optimistic, making it difficult to agree on the extent of fiscal adjustment measures the country must adopt to meet goals under its bailout.  The European Commission will publish on May 5 its spring economic forecasts, in which it will probably lower its growth projection for Greece this year.

Greece Races to Bridge Gap With Creditors Ahead of May Debt Bill


Chevron, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, Q1 earnings dropped 43%, but strength in the refining segment helped offset tumbling crude oil prices & its results topped estimates.  CVX has been working to increase its oil & gas production.  But oil prices have plummeted in recent months amid an oversupply, just as its drive begins to show results.  The company has said it will trim spending & stop buying back its shares as the collapse in oil prices has wiped $Bs from cash flow.  Profits were better insulated than most oil producers because it also makes money from refining the fuel into gasoline & diesel.  The lower-cost crude has helped its refinery businesses improve profit margins.  In Q1, refining, marketing & chemical operations (downstream) earnings doubled to $1.42B from $710M.  Meanwhile, earnings from exploration & production (the upstream segment), fell to $1.56B from $4.31B.  In all, EPS dropped to $1.37 from $2.36 a year earlier as revenue fell to $34.6B.  Analysts had forecast earnings of 79¢ on revenue of $24.4B.  The stock fell 2.02.  If you would like to learn more about CVX, click on this link:
http://club.ino.com/trend/?symb=CVX&a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Chevron Profits, Revenue Drop Sharply, Beat Views

Chevron (CVX)



CVS Health reported better-than-expected results for Q1, as growth in the company's drug-services business continued to outpace its retail stores.  The company also bumped up the low end of its 2015 earnings guidance.  CVS has gotten a boost recently from its Medicaid business, which has helped to offset retail sales declines in the wake of the company's decision to stop selling cigarettes.  In Q1, the pharmacy services business logged an 18% increase in revenue to $3.7B, driven by specialty pharmacy & pharmacy network claims.  Pharmacy network claims grew 11%, due in part to growth in its Medicaid program & public exchanges.  Overall, sales excluding newly opened or closed stores increased 1.2%, as a 4.2% gain in pharmacy sales helped to counter a 6.1% decline in sales at the front of the store, where cigarettes had been sold before the company discontinued their sale in Sep.  CVS has been embracing a broader health-care identity.  In addition to its antismoking moves, the company is expanding its walk-in medical clinics & specialty-pharmacy services.  For the year, CVS now expects to deliver EPS of $5.08-$5.19, compared with its previous guidance for $5.05-$5.19.  For Q2, CVS forecast EPS of $1.17-$1.20.  Analysts had forecast $1.25.  Overall, for Q1, CVS reported EPS $1.07, up from 95¢ a year earlier.  Excluding items, EPS was $1.14, ahead of the company forecast for $1.06-$1.09 a share in adjusted EPS.  Revenue grew 11% to $36.3B, topping the $35.9B analysts had forecast.  The stock rose 1.16.  If you would like to learn more about CVS, click on this link:
http://club.ino.com/trend/?symb=CVS&a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

CVS Books 11% Increase in Quarterly Revenue

CVS Health (CVS)



This was a bargain hunter kind of day.  There was mixed news on the economy & earnings, but good enough to attract buyers.  Next week will bring more macro economic data for Apr along with the big jobs report next Fri.  Most of that should be more of the same, indecisive.  After today's rally, the Dow fell 57 this week.

Dow Jones Industrials








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Higher markets on mixed economic data

Dow shot up 113, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ gained 33.  The MLP index was up pennies in the 452s & the REIT index added 3 to the 322s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries declined.  Oil was hit with profit taking & gold also pulled back.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CLM15.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 15...59.06 Down ....0.57 (1.0%)

GCK15.CMX...Gold May 15....1,175.10 Down ...7.30  (0.6%)







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Manufacturing in Apr held at the weakest pace in almost 2 years, prompting factories to pull back on hiring as they await stronger demand in the US & abroad.  The Institute for Supply Management’s index was unchanged at 51.5, the lowest since May 2013.  Readings above 50 signal expansion, & the Apr figure was less than the projection of 52.  The lack of improvement reflects the lingering effects of a stronger dollar & low oil prices on capital spending & exports that caused the economy to nearly stall in Q1.  While the ISM’s report showed factory employment was the weakest since 2009, readings on orders & production advanced as goods began to move following labor-related delays at West Coast ports.  Manufacturing around the world remains tepid.  Growth at UK factories dropped to a 7-month low & China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index was little changed at 50.1 last month.  The ISM’s measure of US factory employment decreased to 48.3, the weakest since Sep 2009, from the prior month’s 50 reading.  The new orders gauge climbed to a 4-month high of 53.5 from 51.8, & a measure of production rose to 56 from 53.8.  The index for orders waiting to be filled held at 49.5.  The measure of export demand rose to 51.5 from 47.5 in Mar.  The report also showed the index of prices paid increased to 40.5 from 39.

Manufacturing in U.S. Holds at Weakest Pace of Growth Since 2013


Automakers reported rising US vehicle sales in Apr, though some large companies missed estimates.  Low fuel prices continue to drive demand for pickups & sport utility vehicles.  General Motors (GM) deliveries rose 5.9%, exceeding projections for a 5.3% gain. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU), Ford (F) & Nissan reported gains that were less than predicted.  FCAU said its US sales rose 5.8%, compared with estimates for a 7.6% increase.  Nissan improved by 5.7% & Ford’s light-vehicle sales rose 5.4%.  With gasoline prices down by about a 1/3 from a year ago, sales of large & luxury sport utility vehicles soared 31% in Q1, while family sedan sales fell 3%, according to researcher Autodata.  That trend continued last month.  FCAU's US unit posted deliveries of 189K vehicles last month.  The Apr annualized selling rate, adjusted for seasonal trends, is projected to rise to 16.7M from 16.1M a year ago.  The top 6 automakers are all projected to show gains compared with a year earlier.  American consumers have become convinced lower fuel prices are here to stay & they are reverting to the vehicle equivalent of comfort food: roomy SUVs & pickups.  The focus on fuel economy has waned.

GM U.S. Sales Top Estimates as Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Nissan Miss


US consumer sentiment in Apr rose versus the prior month to its highest level since Jan, but was slightly below expectations for a final reading.  The University of Michigan's final Apr reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 95.9, unchanged from the preliminary Apr reading.  The final reading in Mar was 93.0.  Analysts were looking for a final Apr reading of 96.0.  The survey's final reading of the subindex on current conditions rose to 107 from 105.0 in Mar, while a read on final consumer expectations rose to 88.8 from 85.3.  The forecast was for a reading of 108.3 for the conditions index & 88.1 for expectations.

Consumer Sentiment Rises in April


Stocks are starting the new month with buying but the market breadth is weak.  REITs are bouncing back (bargain hunting) after selling in Apr.  The Greek debt mess lingers on, the MidEast remains chaotic & US economic data is unimpressive & inconsistent.  Once again, Dow is struggling to crack thru 18K again where it has been for months.

Dow Jones Industrials