Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Mixed to higher markets in volatile trading

Dow advanced 93 (after being down more than 200 in the AM), advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ added 5.  The oversold MLP index soared 9+ to the 402s & the REIT index jumped 4+ to the 314s.  Junk bond funds were weak & Treasuries had a good day, taking the yield on thje 10 year Treasury down to 2.23% (last seen at the start of Jun).  Oil crawled higher & gold dropped further to the mid 1100s.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)







 




CLQ15.NYM....Crude Oil Aug 15....52.28 Down ...0.25  (0.5%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]



The ECB can not provide emergency funding to banks on overly generous terms or against insufficient collateral, it said, spelling out strict terms for banks in Greece & elsewhere to obtain such funds.  The ECB, which has been providing an Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) lifeline to Greek banks, yesterday, raised the discount on the collateral Greece must put up in return for the cash, keeping pressure on Prime Minister Tsipras hours ahead of a meeting with other euro zone leaders.  The ECB spelt out instances in which ELA provision would conflict with its objectives, saying it could not be supplied by national central banks against insufficient collateral and on generous terms that invited "moral hazard."  "Provision of ELA at overly generous conditions... could increase the risk of moral hazard on the side of financial institutions or responsible authorities," the bank said.  Other examples of possible conflict included situations in which ELA would run the risk of amounting to government financing or conflict with the single monetary policy of the euro zone.  Under ECB rules, ELA is designed to support solvent banks in need of liquidity.  It is provided by national central banks after ECB approval.  Some members of the ECB governing council have long voiced reservations about ECB aid to Greek lenders, with Germany's Jens Weidmann recently questioning their solidity.  The ECB acknowledged that, in general, risks associated with emergency lending were not fully offset by the provision of collateral.  "Even after risk control measures have been applied, some residual risks remain," the bank said.

ECB Emergency Funds Won't be 'Overly Generous'


General Mills updated its animal welfare policy to include a major move toward cage-free eggs.  It's committed to going to 100% cage-free eggs for its US operations, following several other large companies recently announcing similar moves.  The company says it will work with its suppliers to determine a reasonable timeline, given the disruption that bird flu has caused to the US egg supply.  Eggs are an important ingredient in many products for GIS, with brands that include Betty Crocker, Pillsbury, Progresso soups & Hamburger Helper.  The updated policy also affects its milk, pork & poultry suppliers.  The company worked with the Humane Society of the US, which calls it a major victory to improve the lives of farm animals.  The stock rose 1.30.  If you would like to learn more about GIS click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GIS?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

General Mills Plans Major Move Toward Cage-Free Eggs

General Mills (GIS)



Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program hit another road bump, so diplomats extended talks to try to resolve differences over an arms embargo & provisions to renew sanctions.  World powers & Iran extended the terms of an interim accord from midnight Tues until Jul 10.  Relief for Iran from oil, banking & other costly sanctions will be delayed by at least a month if a final agreement isn’t reached by midnight Jul 9.  “We’re frankly more concerned about the quality of the deal than we are about the clock, though we also know that difficult decisions won’t get any easier with time,” the state dept said.  “That is why we are continuing to negotiate.”  All sides say they’ve gotten closer to a deal after 11 days of high-level talks.  For energy-rich Iran, an agreement could speed its return to world oil markets & lift financial sanctions.  The top remaining disputes are over Iranian demands to lift a UN arms embargo & a mechanism that would allow the renewal of sanctions in case of Iranian cheating, the Russians said.  French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told reporters that disagreements remain over nuclear research & development limits.  The EU foreign policy chief said, “An agreement is still possible.”  Diplomats have now missed 5 of their self-imposed deadlines.  Failure to reach an accord by Jul 9 would extend the necessary Congressional review period to 60 days from 30 days & dim the possibility that Iran could win substantial sanctions relief this year.  The International Atomic Energy Agency, which would need to verify & monitor any accord, agreed on a plan that will give inspectors more leeway to clear-up past suspicions, Iran said.  Should negotiators meet their deadlines, it would set the clock ticking on reciprocal steps between Iran & the 6 powers that could see “substantial” sanctions relief by Dec, according to a diplomat.  Other officials said Iran may not get significant sanctions relief until 2016.

Iran Nuclear Talks Continue Past Deadline to Seek Agreement


Stocks had a very tumultuous day.  It's difficult to make sense of these swings with so many debt disasters going on, but the best explanation is that technical factors (a bounce off the 200 day moving average support line) & hopes for another Greek debt bailout brought back buyers.  Selling in oil ended.  In the confusing euro mess, there is talk that there will be a summit of the 28 nations in the EU on Sun.  I guess the idea is they will agree on new bailout terms for Greece.  The MLP sector had an eye-popping day after selling down to multi year lows.  But it remains near those lows.  Call today a time when the buyers won in the PM, but not in a convincing fashion considering recent selling.  Techs remained weak, not a good sign.  Dow is still down about 50 YTD as plenty of problems lie ahead.

Dow Jones Industrials






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Markets decline on Greek talks and Puerto Rico debt problems

Dow tumbled 138, decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ fell 63.  The MLP index dropped another 2+ to below 391 (a new multi year low) & the REIT index rose 3+ to the 313s.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries rallied on financial turmoil around the globe.  Oil is now in the 51s while gold fell to a 15 week low.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CLQ15.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 15...52.47 Down ....0.06  (0.1%)

GCN15.CMX...Gold Jul 15.......1,154.50 Down ...18.40  (1.6%)











Euro-area leaders & finance ministers are meeting to discuss how Greece can stay in the common currency, the first round of serious talks since Greek voters rejected the terms of a prior bailout offer that expired on Jun 30.  Prime Minister Tsipras said his gov wants debt restructuring as part of its next aid package.  In the short term, Tsipras & the new finance minister Tsakalotos will probably arrive in Brussels with many of the same proposals they had before the referendum.  Their main goal will be to start talks on bridge financing, to help Greece get past its upcoming financing hurdles.  Tsipras also asked for a 2-year loan from the European Stability Mechanism, the euro-area’s firewall fund, in a Jun 30 letter before the referendum.  The next deadline is Jul 20, most likely, when Greece needs to pay €3.5B ($3.9B) in bond redemptions for securities held by the ECB.  Greece needs short-term cash before then, or else an expanded lifeline from the ECB to its financial system.  Greek banks have already been shut for more than a week because of their cash crunch.  The ECB has mostly left intact its lifelines to Greek banks but on Mon it tightened conditions on emergency liquidity assistance & today warned that offering too much flexibility to struggling lenders could weaken the incentive for others to follow the rules.  That could be a reason to withdraw or reduce the support to Greece.  The worst case scenario, they could all fail, taking household, corporate & public sector deposits with them.  But that scenario is a long way off.  The ECB’s Governing Council has declared it will work closely with the Bank of Greece to maintain financial stability.  Also, the ECB’s aid isn’t likely to be withdrawn abruptly.  Finance ministers are meeting now are likely to rule out bridge financing, saying Tsipras must start from scratch on a third bailout because all previous offers have expired.  They will, however, most likely start the procedures that allow the European Commission & other institutions to draw up bailout outlines.  Long term solutions, starting this evening, are fuzzy at best.

After the ‘No’ Vote: What Can The EU Do About Greece Now?


The US trade deficit widened in May as exports declined by the most in 3 months, showing businesses were having trouble drumming up sales to overseas customers.  The gap grew 2.9% to $41.9B from the prior month’s revised $40.7B, according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast called for a $42.7B shortfall.  Exports dropped 0.8% on declining demand for commercial aircraft & industrial equipment.  Domestic crude production further reduced America’s imported fuel bill, which dropped in May to the lowest level since 2002.  While persistent US household spending led to record automobile imports, unsettled European & Chinese economies are limiting prospects for a pickup in exports.  Exports declined to $188.6B from $190.1B in Apr.  Shipments overseas were also depressed by less demand for telecommunications equipment, pharmaceuticals & semiconductors.  The decrease in exports was limited by a pickup in US sales of oil products & chemicals.  Excluding petroleum, the deficit widened 6.5%.  Imports were little changed at $230.5B from $230.8B in the prior month as American companies bought less crude oil, chemicals & capital goods, including drilling equipment.  Auto imports jumped $847M to a record & demand for most consumer goods also picked up, underscoring a rebound in household spending.  After eliminating the influence of prices, which generates the numbers used to calculate GDP, the trade deficit widened to $58.4B compared with $56.9B a month earlier.  The swelling gap between exports & imports depressed the economy in Q1.  The deficit subtracted 1.9 percentage points from growth in the US economy, the most since 1985.  A slower global economy & a strong dollar represent hurdles for US growth.  The dollar’s advance since Jun 2014 has made US goods & services more expensive for overseas customers.

U.S. Trade Gap Grows as Exports Fall Most in Three Months


Puerto Rico lost its bid to revive a restructuring law that investors argue conflicts with US bankruptcy code, a blow to the commonwealth as it falls deeper into a fiscal crisis.  Lawyers for Puerto Rico officials had asked a US Court of Appeals to reinstate the local law to help it deal with $72B in debt.  The court resisted, agreeing instead with a San Juan judge who threw out the statute in Feb.  The dispute centers on whether the island, which is excluded from federal bankruptcy code regarding municipal entities, can make its own rules for allowing public agencies to seek protection from creditors.  The commonwealth may seek a rehearing before the 3-judge panel or a larger group of judges.  It can also seek to be heard by the US Supreme Court.  Puerto Rico can also turn to Congress & request permission to put its agencies in bankruptcy, the appeals court said.  “In denying Puerto Rico the power to choose federal Chapter 9 relief, Congress has retained for itself the authority to decide which solution best navigates the gauntlet in Puerto Rico’s case,” the appeals court said yesterday.  “We must respect Congress’s decision to retain this authority.”  Barring help from federal lawmakers, the decision means the debt-burdened Puerto Rico agencies will have no other choice except to continue piecemeal negotiations with creditors, a process which could lead to chaos if discussions break down & investors end up suing the agencies & each other to reclaim some of what they’re owed.  Puerto Rico securities have dropped in prices after the governor last month said he would move toward restructuring the island’s debt.  Commonwealth general obligations maturing in 2035 traded at 70.6¢ on the dollar, after falling to 66.6¢ on Jun 30 (a record low).

Puerto Rico Loses Bid for Restructuring Law


The stock market is in one fine mess.  Chaos is the main driver of global markets as the Greek debt mess is still stuck in neutral & Puerto Rico needs a bailout.  Today is the latest deadline on the Iran talks which have the potential, among other things, of bringing more oil to the market that is already producing too much.  Dow, down 300 YTD, is on defense as earnings season is ready to begin.

Dow Jones Industrials








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