Thursday, October 1, 2015

Sluggish beginning for the new quarter

Dow lost 12 (but near the best levels of the day), decliners just ahead of advancers & NAZ fell 6.  The MLP index rebounded a huge 12 to the 315s & the REIT index was up 1+ to the 305s.  Junk bond funds were weak & Treasuries rose.  Oil & gold finished lower.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)








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CLX15.NYM....Crude Oil Nov 15....44.75 Down ,,,0.34  (0.8%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]



The US economy is on track to grow 0.9% in Q3 after a bigger-than-expected widening of the trade gap for goods in Aug, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecast model showed today.  This was a much slower rate from the regional Fed bank's prior estimate of 1.8% on Mon.  The advance Aug trade reading, showing a deficit of $67.187B (the largest since Mar), led the regional Fed's program to estimate a drag of 0.9 percentage point on US growth, which was 0.7 point bigger than the previous estimate on Mon.

Atlanta Fed slashes third quarter view on U.S. economic growth

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits rose last week, maintaining a pattern of gains & losses around decade lows that signals firings remain muted.  Jobless claims climbed 10K to 277K, according to the Labor Dept.  The forecast called for 271K.  The 4-week moving average fell to the lowest level in almost 2 months & the number receiving benefits was the smallest in 15 years.  Employers are retaining staff amid solid domestic demand, one reason why claims have been hovering near historically low levels even as overseas markets languish.  The 4-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly claims numbers, decreased to 270K.  The number continuing to receive jobless benefits dropped 53K to 2.19K, the fewest since 2000.  The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits declined to 1.6%, the lowest since mid Jul.  Since early Mar, claims have been below the 300K level that is consistent with an improving job market.  In addition, steady growth in payrolls and more job openings are helping to sustain household spending, the biggest part of the economy.

U.S. Jobless Claims Are Near Decade Lows


San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank pres John Williams today renewed his call for an interest-rate hike "sometime later this year," citing near-full employment & rapidly rising house prices that may be a sign of excessive economic optimism.  His prepared remarks in were nearly identical to those made in on Mon.

SF Fed Pres Calls for 2015 Rate Hike


Wal-Mart, a Dow tsock & Dividend Aristocrat, is preparing a round of layoffs as early as tomorrow that would affect hundreds of employees at its headquarters office.  Human resources employees have reserved many of the meeting rooms at the headquarters on Fri as well as small rooms typically used by suppliers to pitch products to the retail giant.  Some department directors were told to cancel travel this week or make sure they come to the office on Fri.  Fewer than 500 workers are expected to lose their jobs (about 19K work for WMT in the region).  Talk of layoffs at the world's largest retailer has swirled for months within the community of WMT employees, the company's suppliers, executive recruiters & others who live in the region.  In Aug, the company cut its earnings outlook while reporting Q2 net income fell 15% from the previous year.  The retailer is facing competition on all fronts, traditional grocery stores & discount chains.  Executives have said they are taking a long-term approach to rebuilding the company, investing heavily in e-commerce, improving stores & employee wages.  In Aug, CEO Doug McMillon said that "for the back half of the year, we will manage these items closely with a continued commitment to efficiency, cutting costs where appropriate, even in a period of investment."  The stock fell 57¢.  If you would like to learn more about WMT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/WMT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Wal-Mart Preparing to Cut Headquarters Jobs

Wal-Mart (WMT)



Stocks finished well above the the AM lows.  However this was not a good way to begin Q4.  Economic data will continue to be uneven.  Then there are numerous problems in the US & overseas.  The WMT story is another story in a string of disappointing ones about how a lack of growth hurts employees & suppliers.  At least the MLPs finally found buyers.  The jobs numbers & related data will drive the markets tomorrow.  Dow is still on track for a bad year, down 1.5K YTD.

Dow Jones Industrials







 

Weak markets on mixed economic data

Dow dropped 71, advancers over decliners almost 3-2 & NAZ lost 17.  The MLP index shot up another 11+ to the 314s & the REIT index edged up 1+ to the 305s.  Junk bond funds remained weak & Treasuries fluctuated.  Oil had a big gain, rising above the mid 45s where it has been stuck for more than a month, & gold was flattish.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CLX15.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 15...46.97 Up ...1.88 (4.2%)

GCV15.CMX...Gold Oct 15......1,117.40 Up ...1.90 (0.2%)





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American manufacturing stagnated in Sep as a stronger dollar & faltering overseas markets led to the slowest pace of orders since Nov 2012.  The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index decreased to 50.2, the 3rd straight decline & the weakest since May 2013, from 51.1 the prior month.  50 is the dividing line between expansion & contraction.  The forecast called 50.6.  Export demand matched the weakest since Jul 2012 as economies from China to the euro area struggle to improve.  While resilient spending by US consumers is helping underpin manufacturing, the stronger dollar is making it more expensive for foreign buyers to purchase made-in-America merchandise.  The measure of new orders dropped to 50.1 last month from 51.7, while the production gauge decreased to 51.8 from 53.6 in Aug.  The export orders index held at 46.5.  The measure of factory employment declined to 50.5 from 51.2 the previous month & the prices paid index fell to 38 from 39.  The inventory gauge was unchanged at 48.5.  Figures less than 50 means stockpiles are shrinking.  Like the ISM report, regional factory surveys have deteriorated over the last several weeks, fueling concerns that intl threats to growth are spreading to US shores.  7 of these surveys were released over the course of Sep & all pointed to shrinking manufacturing.

Manufacturing in U.S. Deteriorates on Weaker Global Demand


China’s official factory gauge stabilized around a 3-year low as gov stimulus measures showed signs of steadying the weakness in manufacturing.  The official purchasing managers index climbed to 49.8 in Sep, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, compared with the estimate of 49.7 (also the level in Aug).  Readings below 50 indicate contraction.  A separate PMI gauge from Caixin Media & Markit Economics also showed improvement from its initial reading, with the final Sep number climbing to 47.2.  The reports signal that 5 central bank interest-rate cuts since Nov & the gov unleashing new rounds of infrastructure spending are gaining traction, helping to cushion the economy.  Still, excess capacity & factory-gate deflation are pressuring China’s manufacturers, adding headwinds for the gov 2015 growth objective of about 7%.



Sep PMI readings have been higher in all but one of the past 10 years, & last month’s matched the 49.8 from Sep 2012.  The is reading remaining below the usual level for the month shows "relatively weak domestic and external demand," according to a statement released by NBS statisticians.  The gov non-manufacturing PMI reading for Sep was unchanged at 53.4, reflecting the relatively stronger performance of services industries throughout the economic slowdown.  New export orders for services jumped to 51.1 from 46.6.

China’s Official Factory Gauge Stabilizes Near 3-Year Low


Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU) kept its monthly sales streak alive as US deliveries rose 14% in Sep, powered by Jeep’s 40%.  GM (GM), Ford (F) & Nissan beat estimates, while GM & FCAU projected a faster sales pace than the industry has seen in a decade.  FCAU reported sales of 193K vehicles, matching the estimate.  Jeep sport utility vehicles, led by a record for Cherokee, had their 2nd best month ever as Fiat Chrysler deliveries gained for the 66th straight month.  GM sales rose 12%, exceeding estimates for a 9.3% gain, while Ford’s light-vehicle deliveries jumped 23%, topping projections for a 19% increase.  Nissan sales increased 18%, compared with a 13% estimate.  The industry may show a 13% jump in car & light-truck deliveries for an annualized rate, adjusted for seasonal trends, of 17.7M.  FCAU forecast an 18.4M pace for the month, including medium & heavy trucks that typically account for at least 200K deliveries. GM projected an 18.3M pace for light vehicles, the fastest selling rate since Jul 2005, when is reached 20.9M.  GM said sales rose to 251K.  Nissan set a Sep sales record, driven by a 45% jump in sales of the Rogue small utility.  Other projected Sep sales gains include 16% for Toyota (TM) & 13% for Honda.  Volkswagen, including Audi, is likely to be the odd one out:  Analysts are evenly split between those who predict a decline or a gain.  Volkswagen is the subject of numerous gov investigations & lawsuits since the EPA said Sep 18 that it admitted using a defeat device that turned off emissions controls when vehicles weren’t being put through official tests. 

Auto Sales Trounce Estimates

Early economic data signals in the US are so-so for Sep, at best.  China data continues ot be mediocre.  A gov shutdown has been postponed for a couple of months.  But a looming rate hike still spooks traders.  Tensions in the MidEast have risen sharply as Russia as taken control of the area from America.  That can be a major worry for the stock market.  The MLP index jumped again today (up an amazing 36 in just 2 days).  Other yield stocks haven't done well.  Junk bond funds have been sold for weeks & the REIT index is where it was 2 years ago.  All is not well in the stock market as it enters the famous month of Oct.

Dow Jones Industrials