Thursday, June 2, 2016

Markets rise ahead of May jobs report

Dow went up 48, advancers over decliners almost 3-2 & NAZ was up 19.  The MLP index rose 2 to almost 311, another 2106 high, & the REIT index added 1+ to the 342s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries had modest gains.  Oil finished a little higher (see below) & gold remained weak (see below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)






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CLN16.NYM....Crude Oil Jul 16....49.32 Up ...0.31 (0.6%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]



OPEC will stick to its policy of unfettered production after members failed to agree on a new output ceiling, but ministers were united in their optimism that global oil markets are improving.  While crude prices dipped after today's meeting, there was little of the rancor that punctuated last Dec's summit.  The group was also able to appoint a new secretary-general, Nigeria’s Mohammed Barkindo, something it couldn't agree on last year.  All members see the same market fundamentals & have been “highly cooperative,” new Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih said.  Iran’s Bijan Namdar Zanganeh reported “very good unity,” while his Nigerian counterpart said relations had improved “substantially” & even Venezuela, a strong supporter of freezing output, said the meeting was “very positive.”  OPEC needs more time to come up with an output cap, outgoing Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said after the meeting, adding that it's hard to find a target when Iranian production is rising & significant Libyan volumes are halted.

OPEC Keeps Status Quo After Failing to Agree on Output Limit

Oil settled higher today, buoyed by data showing weekly declines in US crude supplies & production.  The data outweighed earlier pressure from the OPEC failure to reach a pact to cap output.  WTI crude settled at $49.17, up 16¢ (0.3%), recovering from an earlier dip below the $48 mark.

Oil Shakes Off OPEC, Settles Higher For First Time In 5 Sessions


Gold settled at more than 3-month low on mounting expectations of an imminent US interest-rate hike.  Dallas Federal Reserve Bank pres Robert Kaplan reiterated that the Fed should tighten the monetary policy as the economy continues to show signs of recovery while inflationary pressure has started to build.  Jun gold slipped $2.10 (0.2%) to settle at $1209, its lowest since Feb 16.

Gold Settles At More Than Three-month Low As U.S. Interest-rate Expectations Build


Boeing, a Dow stock, just set a new production record for its 787 Dreamliner.  But the planemaker is keeping mum, for now, on plans to speed output to an even faster pace as demand for wide-body aircraft shows signs of waning.  The company has yet to decide when to boost the production rate to 14 Dreamliners a month, even with the popular carbon-fiber aircraft sold out thru the end of the decade, CEO Dennis Muilenburg said.  That call depends on several pending sales campaigns for the plane, he added.  Boeing has been planning the next step up in 787 output for several years as Airbus prepares its own production increase for wide-body aircraft.  Faster deliveries of the largest & most profitable Dreamliner models would help the company absorb some of the $29B in deferred production costs accumulated during the aircraft’s troubled start.  “Fourteen-a-month is still where we’re heading,” Muilenburg said.  “And we haven’t precisely defined the timing on that yet because it’s dependent on” the skyline, an aerospace term for planned monthly deliveries.  The company reached a milestone last week by delivering the first 787 built at an accelerated production tempo of 12 planes a month.  Analysts have questioned whether BA would speed 787 production amid slower economic growth in key markets such as China & pricing signals from the secondary market that suggest a glut of wide-body aircraft.  But BA also must counter faster output planned by Airbus for 2 planes that compete with the Dreamliner.  The stock went up 44¢.  If you would like to learn more about BA, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/BA?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Boeing Keeps Mum on 787 Output Boost as Wide-Body Jet Sales Slow

Boeing (BA)



Late day buying brought Dow back into the black, but little was changed.  These are nervous times for the stock market.  Oil its near its recent highs, but is fundamental problems (starting with low prices) will remain for months (maybe years).  Economic growth is drab & uneven while Dow is within 500 of its record highs.  That doesn't make sense.  

Dow Jones Industrials








 

Lower markets on failure to agree to oil production quotas

Dow fell 32, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ gave up 8.  The MLP index was flattish in the 308s & the REIT index lost 1+ to the 339s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries went up as stocks were sold.  Oil dropped to the 48s on a lack of agreement about productions quotas (see below) & gold inched higher.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CLN16.NYM....Crude Oil Jul 16...48.25 Down .,.0.76  (1.6%)

GCM16.CMX...Gold Jun 16.....1,211.10Down ...0.80  (0.1%)







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Filings for US unemployment benefits declined for a 3rd consecutive week, signaling sustained firming in the labor market.  Jobless claims fell 1K to 267, according to the Labor Dept.  The forecast called for applications to edge up to 270K.  Dismissals have been unusually subdued for more than a year as employers find little reason to trim staff amid a stable, if somewhat lackluster, demand outlook.



The 4-week average of claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, decreased to 276K from 278K in the prior week.  Filings have been below 300K for 65 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch since 1973 & a level consistent with a healthy labor market.  The number continuing to receive jobless benefits increased 12K to 2.17M & the unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits held at 1.6%, where it's been since mid-Feb.

Filings for U.S. Jobless Benefits Fall for Third Straight Week


Saudi Arabia faced resistance from Iran to proposals to restore a production target scrapped at OPEC's last meeting in Dec as persistent divisions within the producer group undermined efforts to build unity.  Still, OPEC's arch rivals adopted a more conciliatory tone in Vienna than in the past, with Riyadh promising not to flood the market & Tehran saying it was ready to listen to its counterpart.  The diplomatic maneuvering is an attempt to mend divisions that had grown so wide many dubbed OPEC as good as dead & preserve the rebound in oil prices to about $50 a barrel.  “We will be very gentle in our approach, so we don’t shock the market in any way,” Saudi Arabia's new oil minister, Khalid Al-Falih, said.  “We are satisfied with the price movement over the last few months and think it will continue to gently edge up without much intervention, assuming that more or less OPEC production stays where it is.”  The differences between Saudi Arabia & Iran echo the demise of a proposal to freeze production in Apr. Saudi Arabia made that deal contingent on the participation of Iran, which has insisted on its right to boost crude output to pre-sanctions levels. Kuwait also questioned the need for a production target, even as higher oil prices ease tensions within the group.  “A general quota for OPEC with no country quotas has no meaning,” Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said.  “It’s not possible to control or supervise, & what it means is that anyone can do whatever they like and just say that it’s within the share.”  Zanganeh said a country-quota system might be difficult to achieve at today's gathering.

Saudi Arabia’s Gesture for OPEC Unity Meets Iranian Resistance

US private employers added 173K jobs in May, below expectations.  Economists had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 175K jobs.  Private payroll gains for Apr were revised up to 166K from an originally reported 156K increase.  The ADP data come ahead of the Labor Dept's more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report tomorrow.  Economists are looking for private payroll employment to have grown 152K jobs in May, down from 171K in Apr.  Total non-farm employment is expected to have risen by 162K jobs.  The unemployment rate is forecast to tick down to 4.9% from 5.0% recorded a month earlier.

Private Sector Added 173,000 Jobs in May

Today's market is more evidence that the market rally is very tired, especially since it has not been supported by significant economic improvement.  Dow has returned to where it was in late Mar & the jobs report tomorrow does not have prospects of bringing out stock buyers.

Dow Jones Industrials