Monday, April 3, 2017

Lower markets on weaker US auto sales

Dow slid back only 12 (well off earlier lows), decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ fell 17.  The MLP index inched up pennies in the 323s & the REIT index was fractionally higher in the 345s.  Junk bond funds continued mixed & Treasuries went up.  Oil was weak on talks of more oil coming from Libya & gold edged higher (more below).

Dow Jones Industrials


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




3 Stocks You Should Own Right Now - Click Here!





America's factories continued to expand in Mar at a robust pace, demonstrating momentum in an industry that struggled for the better part of the last 2 years, Institute for Supply Management data showed.  ISM's diffusion index eased to 57.2 (matching the forecast) from Feb's 57.7, which was the highest since Aug 2014 (readings above 50 indicate growth).  The measure of orders cooled to 64.5 in Mar from 65.1.  Factory employment gauge climbed to 58.9, the strongest reading since Jun 2011, from 54.2. Prices-paid index increased to 70.5, the highest since May 2011, from 68.  The manufacturing index, which has increased in 6 of the last 7 months, underscores building optimism among factory managers that’s also emerged from Asia to Europe.  In the US, the ISM measure of export orders climbed to the highest level since Nov 2013, indicating improving global demand.  Recent Chinese gov figures showed a factory purchasing managers index climbed in Mar to the highest level in 5 years, while a Markit Economics measure of euro-area manufacturing was the strongest in 71 months.  The ISM’s indices of inventories continued to contract in Mar, a sign production gains will hold up after Federal Reserve factory output data showed the strongest back-to-back advances in almost 3 years.  The highest order backlogs & slowest delivery times for suppliers since 2014 help explain why more manufacturers are reporting that they are adding workers to assembly lines.  The recent pickup in manufacturing has been a bright spot for the US economy during Q1 otherwise marked by tepid gains in household spending, the biggest part of GDP.  Trump on Fri touted a National Association of Manufacturers survey showing optimism among members was at a 20-year high.

Manufacturing in U.S. Kept Expanding at Robust Pace in March

US auto sales trailed estimates, with Kia Motors & Ford (F) reporting some of the biggest declines, as heavy incentive spending failed to contain plunging demand for sedan & compact models.  Combined deliveries for Kia & its affiliate Hyundai slumped 11% & Ford's dropped 7.2% last month, bigger drops than analysts estimated.  General Motors (GM), Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) & Toyota (TM) also fell short of expectations.  Mar was supposed to be the month US auto sales rebounded from decreases in Jan & Feb.  Instead, ample discounts failed to stem the tide for models like the Chevrolet Malibu & Ford Fusion, which are being surpassed by crossovers as the new American family vehicle of choice.  Deliveries of those models each plunged by more than 35%.  GM sees the industry annualized sales pace, adjusted for seasonal trends, at 16.7M vehicles for the month.  The automaker cut its projection from 17M, which it had given earlier today.  Analysts estimated a pace of about 17.2M.  Ford has adjusted its production to respond to changes in consumer demands, Mark LaNeve, Ford's VP of US sales & marketing, said.  In Jan, the automaker canceled plans to build a $1.6B  small-car factory in Mexico.

U.S. Auto Sales Miss Estimates as Cars Plunge Despite Discounts


Gold prices ended in positive territory, with the precious metal shaking off early softness to log a 2nd straight gain, as assets perceived as risky came under pressure in late-morning trade.  Jun gold settled up $2.80 (0.2%) at $1254 an ounce, adding to the advance on Fri.  The move for the precious metal comes as US equity benchmarks retreated firmly to kick off Q2 trade, following a report on US manufacturing that disappointed traders.  The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index fell slightly to 57.2% last month from 57.7% in Feb.  That reading was a little below the 57.8% forecast.  A reading of 50 or better indicates economic expansion.  Precious metals also gained amid news of explosions on a St. Petersburg's subway which killed at least 10 people.  Seen as a haven asset, gold tends to draw bidders on news of attacks or during political uncertainty.

Gold Settles Higher To Kick Of Second-quarter Trade


US developers ramped up construction spending in Feb to the largest amount in nearly 11 years, led by more building of homes, highways & schools.  The Commerce Dept says construction spending rose 0.8% in Feb to the highest level since Apr 2006, after 2 months of declines.  Builders are rapidly putting up more homes in response to strong demand that has pushed up prices for existing homes.  Yet it hasn't yet been enough to relieve a shortage of homes for sale.  The accelerated building could boost the economy this year.  State & local govs spent 0.9% more on construction, driven by roads, schools & recreational buildings.  The federal gov, meanwhile, cut construction spending for the 2nd straight month & has cut back 9% from a year ago.

US Construction Spending Rose to Nearly 11-Year High


The Dow was down 120 at midday, but buying in the PM limited losses.  The auto sales were not encouraging, although not really a surprise when they are being compared to record numbers last year & after a significant rebound from recession lows.  Other data shows manufacturing is doing well & execs are optimistic.  The stock market has been amazingly strong since the election because it likes what Trump is saying & doing.  However accomplishments in Congress have proven more difficult.

Dow Jones Industrials

 









Markets begin the new quarter mixed, awaiting economic data

Dow fell 29, decliners over advancers about 3-2 & NAZ lost 2.  The MLP index was up pennies in the 323s & the REIT index gave back 1+ to the 343s.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries found limited buying.  Oil was off a tad & gold hardly budged.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Crude Oil May 17

Gold Futures,Apr-2017








3 Stocks You Should Own Right Now - Click Here!



Ford (F) & Honda reported wider US sales declines than projected as automakers boosted discounts in hopes demand for struggling sedan & compact models will bottom out.  Deliveries slumped 7.2% for Ford & 0.7% for Honda in Mar, as consumers snubbed the Fusion & Accord family cars.  Sales for Nissan rose 3.2%, beating estimates, though the Japanese automaker also reported drops for its Altima sedan & Sentra compact.  “Many automakers are looking for signs of market stability as consumers continue to head towards trucks and SUVs,” Jeff Conrad, senior VP of Honda's US sales unit, said.  Industrywide US auto sales were projected to rise in Mar compared with 2016's weakest month, when results were depressed by the early Easter holiday.  Q1 sales may match last year's levels, as automakers use heavy discounts to trim inventory that's swelled to the highest level in more than a decade.  General Motors (GM), which is updating its lineup with all-new and redesigned SUVs, may be the biggest gainer among large automakers, with analysts projecting a rise of 7%.  Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU) may report sales growth of about 0.4% as it pares fleet sales & begins North American production of the Jeep Compass.  The industry's annualized sales pace, adjusted for seasonal trends, probably accelerated to 17.2M, compared with 16.7M a year earlier.  Q1 sales comparable to last year required significantly higher incentives & discounts, indicating softness in demand after 7 years of growth, according to Kelley Blue Book.

Ford, Honda U.S. Sales Decline as Car Slump Eclipses SUV Surge


US stocks opened flat on the first trading day of Q2, with investors awaiting Pres Trump's first meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week.  The Dow inched up 12 (0.06%) at 20,675 & the NAZ gained 7 (0.1%) to 5919

Wall St Opens Flat; Trump-Xi Talks in Focus

Oil futures held steady as a rebound in Libyan oil production over the weekend weighed against upbeat economic data from Asia that pointed to strong energy demand from the region.  West Texas Intermediate crude futures were 8¢ higher at $50.68 a barrel.  Libya's Sharara oil field, the country's largest, resumed production yesterday after a week-long disruption & state-owned NOC lifted force majeure on loadings of Sharara crude on Mon.  The field was producing around 80K barrels per day (bpd) on Sun & about 220K bpd prior to the Mar 27 shutdown.  Uncertainty about how Libyan output would fare in the months ahead added short-term volatility to oil prices, he said.  Adding to pressure on prices, energy services firm Baker Hughes said the US rig count rose by 10 to 662 last week, making Q1 the strongest for rig additions since mid-2011 & raising prospects for more US shale oil.  Rising supplies tempered data from Asia that suggested the region's buoyant economy would ensure solid demand for energy.  Manufacturing data showed factories across much of Asia posted another month of solid growth in Mar.  Purchasing managers' index (PMI) data from China showed its factories expanded for a 9th straight month in Mar, although the pace slipped as new export orders slowed.  Oil prices had rallied for 3 days last week, lifted by reduced Libyan output & helped by expectations that members of  OPEC & other non-OPEC producers such as Russia would extend production cuts beyond Jun.

Oil Prices Steady

This is a very sleepy day for the stock market.  Mar data is coming this week highlighted by the jobs report on Fri.  A big item for Trump is his meeting with China's Pres when trade issues & how to handle North Korea will be major topics.

Dow Jones Industrials