Thursday, June 1, 2017

HIgher markets on ADP jobs data

Dow jumped up 135 (for a new record), advancers over decliners about 4-1 & NAZ gained 48.  The MLP index rose 1+ to the 301s & the REIT index added 2 to the 347s.  Junk bond funds advanced & Treasuries were weak when stocks rallied.  Oil at the close was down pennies & gold slid back to 1270 (more on both below).

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Trump announced US withdrawal from the Paris climate pact in a decision that spurns pleas from corporate execs & world leaders.  “The Obama-negotiated accord imposes unrealistic targets on the U.S. for reducing our carbon emissions, while giving countries like China a free pass for years to come,” the White House said.  Although cast as a final decision, the announcement only prolongs uncertainty over the US role in an agreement among almost 200 nations to address to address global warming.  Trump is kicking off a withdrawal process that will take until Nov 2020 to unfold, creating an opening for him to reverse course & injecting it as an issue in the next presidential election.  Trump, who has called climate change a "hoax," campaigned on the pledge to exit the 2015 pact & criticized it as “one-sided” against US interests.  White House legal advisers & some Rep lawmakers had warned that staying in the accord could undercut Trump's efforts to rescind rules on power-plant emissions & fuel efficiency.  "It front-loads costs on the American people to the detriment of our economy and job growth while extracting meaningless commitments from the world’s top global emitters, like China," he said.  "The U.S. is already leading the world in energy production and doesn’t need a bad deal that will harm American workers."

Trump Plans to Withdraw From Landmark Paris Climate Accord

Companies adding more workers to US payrolls in May than forecast indicates the job market is powering ahead, data from the ADP Research Institute.  Private payrolls rose by 253K (est. 180K) after revised 174K gain in Apr.  Goods-producing industries, which include manufacturers & builders, increased headcounts by 48K after 6K.  Service providers boosted payrolls by 205K, the most since Nov, after 167K.  Businesses continue to hire workers in addition to retaining existing employees, indicating sustained job-market progress that helps explain why Fed policy makers are projected to raise interest rates when they meet later this month. The ADP report may help bolster forecasts for the private payrolls tally in the May jobs report due from the Labor Dept tomorrow.  “Job growth is rip-roaring,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said (Moody's produces the figures with ADP).  “The current pace of job growth is nearly three times the rate necessary to absorb growth in the labor force. Increasingly, businesses’ number one challenge will be a shortage of labor.”  Hiring in construction jumped 37K & factories added 8K workers.  Companies employing 500 or more workers increased staffing by 57K jobs; payrolls rose 113K at medium-sized businesses, those with 50-499 employees; while small company payrolls climbed 83K.

ADP Data on Business Hiring Gain Shows Solid U.S. Job Market

Automakers tempered the US auto market's slowdown in May, with Memorial Day deal-making & discounted shipments to rental-car companies lending support to an industry running out of growth.  Ford (F) sales of cars & light trucks rose 2.3% in May, with deliveries to fleet customers carrying the company to a rare monthly victory over General Motors (GM).  Ford,  Nissan & Honda (HME) gains positioned the industry for a shot at its first increase in total monthly deliveries this year.  Even if the US market was able to eke out some growth last month, indications abound that the industry's 7-year run of expansion is coming to an end.  Without discounted deliveries to bulk customers, Ford's sales would have dropped in May, as actual consumers dialed back purchases.  Automakers also continue to spend record sums on incentives to support slumping passenger-car models & clear inventory from crowded dealer lots.  Analysts were projecting the industrywide selling rate, adjusted for seasonal trends, slipped in May to about 16.8M light vehicles, compared with 17.2M a year ago.  This would mark the 3rd straight month of a sales pace short of 17M, which last happened in 2014.  GM estimated an industry sales rate of 16.6M for last month.  While the company beat Ford on retail sales by about 33K light vehicles last month, GM's total deliveries trailed its rival for the first time since Mar 2016.  Even though a pace of more than 16M is historically strong & plenty profitable, slower sales have saddled automakers with too much inventory & precipitated bigger discounts.

Ford Tops GM as Fleet Sales, Discounts Stem U.S. Auto Slowdown

Gold prices settled lower, pulling back after posting a gain of 0.8% a day earlier, as data showing strong private-sector job growth helped buoy the $ & fed expectations for an interest-rate hike this month.  Aug gold lost $5.30 (0.4%) to settle at $1270 an ounce.

Gold Pulls Back As Private-sector Hiring Data Up Prospects For Higher Interest Rates


Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that domestic crude supplies fell 6.4M barrels in the latest week. The EIA report, which was issued a day later than usual due to the Memorial Day holiday, marked an 8th weekly drop in a row.  The American Petroleum Institute yesterday reported a drop of 8.7M-barrel, according to sources, while analysts forecast a fall of 3.2M barrels.  Gasoline stockpiles fell 2.9M barrels, while distillate stockpiles were up 400K barrels, according to the EIA.  Jul crude traded at $48.50 a barrel, up 16¢.

EIA Reports 8th-straight Weekly Drop In U.S. Crude Supplies


Trump is withdrawing from the Paris accord but is also beginning talks on how to reenter.  Stock investors liked what they heard & bid up prices in the last couple of hours.  Economic data was been generally favorable & the jobs report tomorrow should also be encouraging.  The popular stock indices are at new record levels (including the Dow).  At the same time, DC continues to be dysfunctional, long on drama but short on accomplishments.

Dow Jones Industrials










Markets rise on manufacturing data

Dow went up 20, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ added 7.  The MLP index gained 2+ to the 302s & the REIT index was fractionally lower to the 344s.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries retreated.  Oil rose pennies in the 48s & gold declined to 1266.

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American factories are settling back into a solid pace of expansion after a post-election run-up that saw the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing gauge hit an almost 3-year high.  Factory index little changed at 54.9 (est. 54.8) from 54.8 in Apr (readings above 50 indicate growth).  ISM's gauge of new orders increased to 59.5 from 57.5.  Measure of production eased, while employment index picked up.  Stronger orders growth represents resilient sales that will keep manufacturing driving forward.  Factory managers have registered more optimism about conditions so far in 2017 amid steady domestic demand & global growth that looks more promising.  ISM's employment figures are consistent with projections that the Labor Dept tomorrow will report a pickup in factory payrolls.  Stable overseas demand is helping to keep a floor under export orders.  The Chinese gov Purchasing Managers’ Index showed expansion in May for a 10th month after shrinking in most of the prior 10 months.  The ISM figures indicate manufacturing growth is staying robust even as expectations fade for a near-term fiscal boost, including thru tax reform, from DC lawmakers.

Manufacturing in U.S. Settles In at Solid Pace of Expansion


US construction fell in Apr by the largest amount in a year, reflecting weakness in homebuilding, non-residential construction & gov projects.  The Commerce Dept reports that construction spending fell 1.4%, the biggest drop since a 2.9% fall in one year.  The decline left spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.22T.  The report was significantly weaker than analysts had expected & represented the first monthly decline since a small 0.2% drop in Dec.  The forecast called for an increase of about 0.5%.  The big decline followed a revised 1.1% increase in Mar, which had pushed construction spending to a record high of $1.24T,
More people sought unemployment benefits last week, the 2nd straight week of increases, though levels remain historically low.  The Labor Dept says applications for weekly unemployment aid rose 13K to 248K.  The 4-week average, a less volatile figure, rose 2K to 238K.  Applications are a close indication of layoffs.  They have been below 300K, a historically low figure, for 117 weeks (the longest streak since 1970).  The ultra-low figures add to evidence that companies are holding onto workers & hiring at a steady pace.  Americans are spending more, factories have cranked up output & home sales are strong, boosting the economy after it barely expanded in the first 3 months of the year.

US jobless claims rose to 248,000 last week

Traders are waiting to see what Trump will do about the Paris accord.  Early economic data is favorable & the report on new jobs in May, coming tomorrow, should be reasonably good.  Meanwhile the craziness in DC continues & that could indicate Congress will not much done in the coming months.  But NAZ is back in record territory while Dow is within striking distanjce of setting a new record.

Dow Jones Industrials

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