Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Higher markets as Dow nears 22,000

Dow advanced 72, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ went up 14.  The MLP index was fractionally higher to the 299s & the REIT index added 1+ to the 355s.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries were in demand.  Oil lost 1 to the 49s on profit taking & gold remained strong (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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US construction spending fell 1.3% in Jun on big decline in gov construction.

US construction spending fell 1.3 percent in June on big decline in government construction


Brent oil slipped from a 2-month high near $53 a barrel as ample global supplies countered strong demand and forecasts of another drop in US crude inventories.  US weekly are expected to show crude stocks fell 2.9MM barrels last week, the 5th straight week of declines.  But OPEC production rose in Jul despite a deal to cut output.  US crude was down 28¢ at $49.89.  The latest data point on whether US inventories have fallen further comes from industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API), later today.  On the demand side, forecasters including the International Energy Agency have been raising their estimates, lending prices some support.  The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as part of a deal with Russia & other non-members, is reducing output by about 1.2M bpd from Jan 2017 until Mar next year to get rid of excess supply.  OPEC's adherence to its supply cuts has been high but in recent months production has increased due in part to recovering output in countries exempt from the deal.  Oil output by OPEC rose last month 90K bpd to a 2017 high, led by a further recovery in supply from Libya, one of the exempt producers.

Oil slips from two-month high as ample supply weighs

Gold prices settled at their highest in nearly 8 weeks as softening economic growth called into question whether the Federal Reserve will pull the trigger on another rate hike this year.  Gold for Dec delivery settled up $6 (0.5%) at $1279 an ounce, its highest settlement since Jun 8.

Gold Prices Gain 0.5% For Highest Settlement In Nearly Eight Weeks


Rising sales of most key drugs, lower one-time charges & reduced manufacturing costs helped drive Pfizer (PFE), a Dow stock, Q2 profit up 50%.  The top US drugmaker beat profit forecasts, tweaked its own 2017 forecast, & predicted numerous lucrative drugs will be approved over the next half-decade.  Still, cheaper generic competition continues to gnaw away at revenue, which fell short of expectations.  Meanwhile, CEO Ian Read said that PFE is avoiding any big acquisitions, long its chief growth strategy, as it waits for the administration & Congress to enact tax reform.  He said that would affect the valuation of its assets & potential purchase targets.  EPS rose to 51¢, up from 33¢ a year earlier.  Adjusted EPS of 67¢ beat the estimate by 2¢.  Revenue of $12.9B was down 2% & below forecasts for $13.02B.  Top sellers including new breast cancer drug Ibrance & blood thinner Eliquis produced higher sales, helping lift revenue from patented-protected drugs by 8%, to $7.67B.  The essential health segment, which sells older products that are mostly off patent, had sales drop 14% to $5.23B.  Their sales were led by Lipitor with of sales, at $445M, partly because a few newer drugs have produced lower-than-expected sales.  Some new medicines are coming though.  In May, Bavencio got US approval for treating advanced bladder cancer & its drug for a type of leukemia could get approved this month.  But new eczema treatment Eucrisa, approved in Feb, managed only $9M in Q2 sales.  Over the next 5 years, the company expects to win approvals for up to 18 new drugs & a half-dozen "biosimilars," near-generic versions of complex injected drugs manufactured inside cells.  However, the first approved biosimilar, Inflectra, a near-copy of blockbuster immune disorder drug Remicade launched in Nov had only $94M in sales.  Execs said it only has a 2% market share as commercial insurers mainly are sticking with Remicade.  Sales at the consumer health business edged up 1%, to $846M.  PFE now expects adjusted full-year EPS of $2.54-2.60, with the lower end up 4¢ from its May forecast & the company still expects 2017 revenue of $52-54B.  The stock lost 8¢.  If you would like to learn more about PFE, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PFE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Key drug sales push Pfizer profit up 50 percent


Stocks keep flying higher in uncertain times.  Earnings are good, or at least good enough.  Dow is just inches away from going over 22K.  Being this close, it should go over & get that over with.  DC is calming down a bit, but that is only relative.  Among other items on their agenda are: tax reform, an approved budget for the new fiscal year &, maybe, healthcare.  That's a lot to get done in very little time.

Dow Jones Industrials

 








Markets rise after ISM manufacturing report

Dow rose 67 (nearing 22K), advancers over decliners about 5-4 & NAZ added 7.  The MLP index gained 1+ to 301 & the REIT index was off a fraction in the 353s.  Junk bond funds were mixed &Treasuries also went up in price.  Oil slid back, going under 50, & gold added 5 to 1272.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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General Motors (GM) & Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU) posted much steeper US light vehicle sales declines than estimated in Jul as industrywide demand continues to slide from last year's record results.  Deliveries plunged 15% for GM & 10% for FCAU, both bigger decreases than projected.  Ford Motor (F) light-vehicle sales also missed estimates as automakers contend with both regular consumers & rental companies cutting back on car purchases.  After 7 years of US auto sales growth, this year's persistent slump, & anxiety over upheavals from electrification, autonomy & mobility services, has investors shunning automakers.  Tempered spending on vehicles & car parts has been a drag on economic growth in 5 of the last 8 qtrs, according to the Commerce Dept.  Nissan is so far the only major automaker to beat estimates, with a 3.2% sales decline that was narrowly better than projections.  Ford's sales excluding heavy trucks declined 7.4%, as passenger-car deliveries dropped 19%.  GM, which has been trying to wean itself off lower-margin shipments to rental companies, said those sales plunged 81% in Jul from a year earlier.  The annualized pace of total light-vehicle sales likely slowed to 17M in Jul.  The projected rate, which is adjusted for seasonal trends, would be down from 17.9M a year earlier, though it would also be the fastest rate since Feb.  GM projected an industry selling rate of 16.9M for last month when the company said its vehicle inventory is at 104 days' supply, well above a year-end target of about 70 days.
U.S. Auto Market Slump Persists

Consumer spending slowed in Jun as income growth turned in the weakest performance in 7 months.  The Commerce Dept says spending edged up a tiny 0.1% compared to a 0.2% rise in May.  It was the weakest showing since spending increased a similar 0.1% in Feb.  Incomes were flat in Jun following a 0.3% rise in May, the weakest showing since incomes fell 0.1% in Nov.  Spending is closely watched because it accounts for 70% of economic activity.  Even with the weakness in Jun, spending for Q2 revived, helping to lift overall economic growth to a solid rate of 2.8% during the qtr.  Economists believe solid job growth will keep economic growth at healthy levels in Q3.


US factories expanded again last month, a good sign for the economy.  But the pace of growth was down from Jun.  The Institute for Supply Management reports that its manufacturing index slipped to 56.3 from the Jun reading of 57.8.  Still, anything above 50 signals that manufacturers are expanding, & America's factories have been on an 11-month winning streak.  Factory orders, production & hiring all grew more slowly in Jul.  Export orders also grew but at a slower clip.  15 of 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in Jul, led by makers of plastic & rubber products.  US factories have largely recovered from a slump in late 2015 & early 2016 caused by cutbacks in the energy industry & a strong $, which makes US goods more expensive in foreign markets.

US factory activity grew more slowly in July

The bulls are feeling good & taking stocks higher even though other indicators are not very optimistic.  Market breadth remains weak & safe haven investments such as gold & Treasuries are doing well.  Gold is at its highest levels in about 9 months.  Bulls are not deterred, however the disconnect is disturbing.

Dow Jones Industrials
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