Monday, June 4, 2018

Markets continue to climb after jobs report on Friday

Dow shot up 184, advancers over decliners about 3-2 & NAZ went up 12.  The MLP index rose 1+ to 270 & the REIT index added 1+ to the 342s.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries declined in price, taking yields higher.  Oil dropped to the 64s (more below) & gold was steady at 1299.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil65.77-0.04 -0.1%

GC=FGold   1,299.80
+0.50+0.0%






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Stocks climbed with traders looking past trade concerns & focusing on the bullish Fri jobs report.  The US added 223K jobs in May, pushing the May unemployment rate down to 3.8%, an 18-year low.  The positive jobs report suggested that the economy still has plenty of room to run.  Meanwhile, over the weekend finance ministers from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan & the UK expressed their “unanimous concern and disappointment” with the US decision to impose tariffs on steel & aluminum imports from Canada, the EU & Mexico.  Tariffs & trade will likely dominate the conversation at the meeting of leaders of the G7 nations this Fri & Sat in Canada.  Oil prices were lower.  Data released last week from the Energy Information Administration, showed that in Mar, US oil production climbed to 10.47M barrels per day, a monthly record.

US stocks higher amid economic optimism


Oil prices fell as US production hit a record high & as OPEC members considered boosting supply.  Benchmark Brent crude oil lost $1.26 a barrel (1.6%) to hit a low of $75.53 before recovering a little to $75.69.  US light crude was 40¢ lower at 65.41 a barrel.  The US contract lost about 3% last week, after a near 5% decline the week before.  US crude production climbed in Mar to 10.47M barrels per day (bpd), a monthly record, data from the Energy Information Administration showed last week.  US drillers added 2 oil rigs last week, bringing the total to 861, the most since Mar 2015, energy services firm Baker Hughes said.  That was the 8th time drillers have added rigs in the past 9 weeks.  Arab oil ministers agreed over the weekend on the need for continued cooperation between members of OPEC & other big producers to balance global supply, Kuwait's state news agency reported.  OPEC ministers from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait & Algeria along with their counterpart from non-OPEC Oman met unofficially in Kuwait on Sat.  OPEC meets formally on Jun 22 to set oil policy.  It is expected to agree to raise output to cool the market amid worries over Iranian & Venezuelan supply & after DC raised concerns the oil rally was going too far,sources said  Saudi Arabia, effective OPEC leader, & Russia have discussed boosting output to compensate for supply losses from Venezuela & to address concerns about the impact of US sanctions on Iranian output. 

Oil down as US supply grows, OPEC mulls higher output

Microsoft (MSFT), a Dow & NAS stock, announced it would acquire coding website GitHub in a $7.5B, all-stock deal.  “Microsoft is a developer-first company, and by joining forces with GitHub we strengthen our commitment to developer freedom, openness and innovation,” CEO Satya Nadella said.  “We recognize the community responsibility we take on with this agreement and will do our best work to empower every developer to build, innovate and solve the world’s most pressing challenges.”  The deal is expected to close by the end of the calendar year.  The stock went up 52¢.
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Microsoft to buy GitHub in $7.5B deal


With a lack of earnings & major economic reports, markets could focus more heavily on trade-related headlines in the coming week, & they could get nasty as Pres Trump prepares to meet world leaders in Canada.  There could be major developments on the trade front with China during the coming week, as well, & more clarity on whether revisions to the North American Free Trade Agreement can be concluded this year.  The heads of G-7 nations travel to Quebec at the end of the week for a meeting hosted by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau & including leaders of Germany, Italy, France, UK & Japan, all countries subject to US tariffs.  Already, G-7 finance ministers, meeting in British Columbia over the weekend, chastised the US for the trade skirmishes brewing across the world.  Last week, Japan called for rational debate to prevent protectionism from harming the global economy.  After plummeting Thurs when US tariffs were announced, stocks were rallying big on Fri following May's robust jobs report & solid manufacturing data.  The US imposed new 25% tariffs on steel & 10% tariffs on aluminum, imported from the EU, Canada & Mexico.  The tariffs prompted swift retaliation & raised doubts about whether the administration will be able to reach a near-term agreement with Canada & Mexico on a revamped North American Free Trade Agreement.  But many market strategists say those tariffs alone will not rock the stock market or economy unless they escalate.  The bigger question is whether the US can resolve trade disputes with China & come to a new NAFTA accord.  As for China, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross touched down in Beijing Sat, amid a widening disagreement over whether China would agree to commit to long-term contracts on US energy & agricultural products.

Trump is heading to Canada this week — and that's when things on the trade front could get uglier

Stocks continue to fly higher on the favorable economic data published on Fri.  Sounds good, but we've seen that thinking before (especially this year).  The Dow is heading for 25K, although the dark clouds on trade talks have not gone away.  They may become more apparent as the G-7 meeting gets closer.

Dow Jones Industrials








Friday, June 1, 2018

Markets hold gains after a stronger than expected jobs report

Dow gained 219, advancers over decliners better than 2-1 & NAZ jumped up 112.  The MLP index was up 1+ to the 267s & the REIT index added 1+ to the 341s.  Junk bond funds rose & Treasuries were sold, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury up a big 7 basis points to 2.89%.  Oil dropped 1+ to the 65s (more below) & gold gave back 7, falling to 1297.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Pres Trump's imposition of steel & aluminum tariffs on Canada, Mexico & the EU infuriated Congressional Reps & the key US allies, but according to his chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow, it's merely a negotiating tactic to secure free trade conditions.  “When you have these complicated trade negotiations, part of it -- and part of the president's quiver -- is going to be tariffs, whether we like it or not,” he said.  “But he has to use them in order to achieve the goal of leveling the playing field and bringing down these barriers.”  The White House announced yesterday that for the European trading bloc, Canada & Mexico would end a 2-month exemption from the 25% steel & 10% aluminum tariffs announced in Mar.  The tariffs went into effect today, sparking intl concerns of a potential trade war.  But the director of the National Economic Council, who declined to say whether tariffs would be finalized or not, said the pres is hoping to achieve “fairness and reciprocity.”  “That is the best way not only for an even playing field, but to create economic growth,” Kudlow, a self-avowed free trade advocate, added.  “We’re just asking that these countries play ball with us.”  In a tweet, the pres lambasted Canada for treating the US agricultural sector “very poorly for a very long period of time.”  “Highly restrictive on Trade!” Trump wrote.  “They must open their markets and take down their trade barriers! They report a really high surplus on trade with us. Do Timber & Lumber in U.S.?”

Trump tariffs on US allies a negotiating tactic for free trade: Larry Kudlow


Already under fire for his combative trade policies, Pres Trump intensified pressure on Canada, demanding that America's neighbor & close ally "open their markets and take down trade barriers."  Trump's tweet came a day after he ignited global condemnation by imposing tariffs on steel & aluminum imports from Canada & 2 other key allies — the EU & Mexico.  The US had sought use the tariff threat as cudgel to win concessions from Canada & Mexico in talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement.  But the NAFTA talks sputtered anyway, & the Trump administration imposed the tariffs at midnight last night.  The pres took to Twitter to accuse Canada of treating US "farmers very poorly for a long period of time."  And he repeated his inaccurate claim that Canada runs a trade surplus with the US.  In fact, the Commerce Dept numbers show, the US recorded a trade surplus with Canada for each of the past 3 years.  Trump's antagonistic trade policies, & specifically the steel & aluminum tariffs, drew intl denunciation.  French Pres Emmanuel Macron said that he told Trump in a phone call that the new US tariffs on European, Mexican & Canadian goods were illegal & a "mistake."  Macron pledged the retaliation would be "firm" & "proportionate," in line with World Trade Organization rules.  Germany's Volkswagen, Europe's largest automaker, warned that the decision could start a trade war that no side would win.  The EU & China said they will deepen ties on trade & investment as a result.  "This is stupid — it's counterproductive," Francis Maude, a former British trade minister, said.  "Any government that embarks on a protectionist path inflicts the most damage on itself."  Trump's move makes good on his campaign vows to crack down on trading partners that he claims exploit poorly negotiated trade agreements to run up big trade surpluses with the US.

Trump takes aim at Canada as US protest his tariffs


Crude futures fell, with the US benchmark posting a 2nd consecutive week of declines as American oil output comes close to matching that of top producer Russia.  North Sea Brent crude's premium over West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures remained near 3-year highs above $10 a barrel, having surpassed $11 on yesterday.  The premium has doubled in less than a month, as a lack of pipeline capacity in the US has trapped a lot of output inland.  WTI crude fell $1.23 (1.8%) to $65.81 a barrel.  For the week, WTI was down 3%, adding to last week's near 5% decline & shrugging off a 3.6M-barrel drop in US crude stockpiles last week.  Global benchmark Brent was down 81¢ (1%) at $76.75 per barrel.   Brent was still set for an increase of 0.5% on the week.  US crude production has been rising to record levels since late last year.  In Mar it jumped 215K barrels per day (bpd) to 10.47M bpd, a new monthly record, the Energy Information Administration said.  US energy companies added oil rigs for a 2nd week in a row, 2 oil rigs, bringing the total count to 861, the highest level since Mar 2015.  Leakers have said that Saudi Arabia, the effective leader of OPEC, & Russia were discussing boosting output by about 1M bpd to compensate for losses in supply from Venezuela & to address concerns about the impact of US sanctions on Iranian output.  This pushed Brent to a three-week low below $75 a barrel on Mon.  Brent recovered later in the week, however, when a Gulf source flagged that any rise in production would be gradual.  Russia would be able to raise its oil output within months to levels last seen before a global production-cutting deal took effect if there is a decision to unwind the pact, a Russian Energy Ministry official said.

US crude falls 3% on the week, settling at $65.81, amid US supply growth and OPEC uncertainty

Pres Trump said he will meet with Kim Jong Un in Singapore later this month after all, ending more than a week of uncertainty about whether direct denuclearization talks would go on.  Key North Korean official Kim Yong Chol, who is sanctioned over the 2014 Sony cyberattack, talked to Trump in the Oval Office for more than an hour today & delivered a letter from North Korean dictator Kim Jon Un.  In the letter, the head of the communist dictatorship was expected to show interest in meeting with Trump.  Trump told reporters he does not expect the first meeting will lead to an agreement about Pyongyang dismantling its nuclear & missile programs.  He said he sees a framework developing "over a period of time."  "I think it'll be a process," he said following the meeting.  "I never said it goes in one meeting. I think it's going to be a process."  Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with a North Korean delegation this week as the Trump administration discussed the possibility of holding the previously scapped meeting between Trump & Kim.  On Thurs, Trump tweeted that his administration had "very good meetings with North Korea."

Trump says June 12 summit with Kim Jong Un is back on
 
Minneapolis Fed Pres Neel Kashkari said there are still many Americans without jobs even though the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in May, an 18-year low.  "I still think there is some slack in the labor market," Kashkari said.  He added the unemployment rate was misleading because it only counted people who are actively looking for work.  Labor force participation data for workers aged 25-55 suggest there are 1M  fewer prime-age workers in the labor force in 2018 than in 2006.

Fed's Kashkari says there is still some slack in the labor market


Stocks began the day with a strong advance & pretty much held those gains throughout the day.  Next week the jobs report will fade & more attention will be paid to goings with trade negotiations.  And that area looks to be depressing.  Meanwhile the Dow keeps chugging along around 24.5K, unable to break away from that trend line.

Dow Jones Industrials









Higher markets after a strong jobs report

Dow rose 207, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ gained 74.  The MLP index went up 2+ to the 269s & the REIT index added 1+ to the 241s.  Junk bond funds went higher & Treasuries dropped, taking the 10 year Treasury yield up 8 basis points to 2.9%.  Oil was weak again, falling to the 66s, & gold fell 6 to 1298.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil66.54
-0.50 -0.8%

GC=FGold  1,297.70
-7.00 -0.5%







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The US added a higher-than-expected number of jobs in May, with the Labor Dept reporting that 223K jobs were added, more than the 188K jobs expected.  Job creation was also above the average 190K jobs created each month after the past year.  The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8% from Apr's 3.9% (to an 18-year low).  Wage inflation came in above expectations, at 0.3%.  Analysts were anticipating wages would increase by 0.2%.  The jobs report reinforces an outlook for solid economic growth, driven by consumption. 

Job creation last month stronger than expected


Stocks were higher following the May employment report, which surpassed expectations.  The US economy added 223K workers in May, surpassing the 188K analysts expected.  The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, an 18-year low and down from Apr's 3.9%.  Wage inflation inched higher, to 0.3%.  Treasury yields climbed following the report, on the expectation that it would support an impending Fed rate hike.  Financial stocks ascended.  In commodities, both gold & oil futures were lower.

Stocks rally, jobs report well received

EU trade chief Cecilia Malmstrom says that the Trump administration's tariffs on steel & aluminum exports to the US will hurt global growth.  Malmstrom said in reaction to the sanctions that "the situation is worrying, it could escalate."  She added that "the economic recovery that we have seen lately, notably in the EU, but also globally, risks of course to be diminished by this."  Malmstrom said "The United States is playing a dangerous game."  She saed the bloc is taking China to the World Trade Organization over a dispute on intellectual property.  Malmstrom said that "technological innovation is the bedrock of our economy," & insisted the EU would step in when infractions are seen.  In a more general context, she added that "if players in the world do not stick to the rule book, the system might collapse."  Malmstrom said that the tariffs imposed on European steel & aluminum exports to the US "is further weakening the Trans-Atlantic relations."  She added the Trump measures "will cause a lot of damage to our steel and aluminum industry" & dismissed the argument that the tariffs were needed for US national security reasons.  She said that, "Internal security is not relevant. It is pure protectionism."

The Latest: EU says US tariffs will hurt global growth


Manufacturing activity expanded at a faster pace than forecast last month, according to the Institute of Supply Management.  The ISM manufacturing index jumped to 58.7 in May from 57.3 in Apr.  The forecast called for manufacturing growth to hit 58.4 last month.  May also marked the 21st consecutive month of expansion for the manufacturing sector (a reading above 50 for the index indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector & a reading below 50 signals contraction).  Construction spending rebounded more than expected in April as investment in private construction projects notched its biggest gain since 2012, offsetting a drop in public outlays.  The Commerce Dept said construction spending surged 1.8%, the largest increase since Jan 2016, after an unrevised 1.7% decline in Mar.  The forecast was for construction spending rebounding 0.8% in Apr.  Construction spending accelerated 7.6% on a year-on-year basis.  In Apr, spending on private construction projects jumped 2.8%, the largest increase in 6 years, reversing the 2.6 percent drop iin Mar.  Outlays on private residential projects shot up 4.5%, the biggest rise since 1993, following a 4.1% plunge in Mar.  Spending on nonresidential structures rose 0.8% in Apr after falling 0.6% in the prior month.  Investment in public construction projects decreased 1.3% after rising 1.2% in Mar.  Spending on federal gov construction projects tumbled 10.2%, following a 1.8% increase in Mar.

ISM manufacturing index beats estimates; construction spending posts biggest jump since 2016

The bulls returned following a favorable jobs report (along with other helpful economic data).  However the Dow chart below shows it has been going sideways for months.  Ups & downs in trade negotiations (with more downs than ups) have kept a lid on bringing back the post election rally.  That factor is likely to continue for a very long time.

Dow Jones Industrials