Friday, June 28, 2019

Markets rise ahead of Trump Xi meeting

Dow went up 48, advancers over decliners about 3-1 & NAZ gained 15.  The MLP index rose 1 to 248 & the REIT index added 1+ to the 382s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were a tad lower following recent strength.  Oil slid lower in the 59s & gold continued in demand, rising 4 to 1416.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil59.09
 -0.34 -0.6%

GC=FGold   1,412.90
+0.90+0.1%







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Stocks traded mixed as investors look ahead to tonight's meeting between Pres Trump & China's Pres Xi Jinping, which could potentially ease trade tensions between the 2 nations.  Hopes of a deal were tempered this week after reports that Xi would give Trump a set of conditions to be met by DC before reaching any settlement.  There is also the threat of further tariffs on Chinese goods, which Trump mentioned this week.  For the month, all 3 major averages are on pace for gains of more than 6%.  Trump tweeted about the market's performance, taking credit for the market's strong performance.  Large-cap US banks rose after the Federal Reserveapproved capital plans of 16 banks.  In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite slipped 0.6% & was down 0.8% for the week.  Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.3% but crawled up 0.2% for the week.  Japan's Nikkei ended 0.5% lower & lost 0.2% for the week.  In Europe, London's FTSE added 0.2%, Germany's DAX added 0.6% & France's CAC was higher by 0.5%.

US stocks trade mixed as Trump attends G20

Consumer sentiment rose to 98.2 in Jun, coming in slightly above the forecast of 98.0.  The Univ of Mich preliminary reading earlier in the month was 97.9.  Though sentiment rose slightly from the reading in early Jun, it fell compared to the May readings.  Consumer sentiment had hit a 15-year high in early May at 102.4.  But those robust gains were recorded mostly before US-China trade talks collapsed & Pres Trump hiked tariffs on $200B in Chinese goods, provoking Beijing to respond with its own levies.  Sentiment had started slip toward the end of May, declining to 100.0 as consumers grew increasingly concerned about the impact tariffs would have on prices.

Consumer sentiment slightly beats expectations in June

Nike (NKE), a Dow stock, sold more sneakers & sports gear during the fiscal Q4 than expected, helping to boost revenues by 4% to just over $10B.  The earnings, however, missed expectations by a few pennies a share, & the stock initially fell.  EPS was 62¢ on an adjusted basis, short of the forecast for 66¢.  Revenues for the Nike brand, which excludes Converse merchandise, jumped 10% from the same qtr last year to $9.7B.  Converse sales were about flat at $491M.  Total sales in North America, excluding fluctuations in currency rates, were up 8% to $4.17B & sales in the China region surged 22% to $1.70B.  Footwear sales in North America, excluding fluctuations in currency rates, were up 9% during the last qtr, while the apparel business grew 6% & equipment sales were up 7%.  Despite an ongoing trade war between the US & China, NKE said “we are and remain a brand of China and for China.” The company said it hasn’t seen any impact to date on its business from the ongoing tensions overseas.  It added that, “the consumer sentiment around Nike in China has been actually quite strong.”  The stock rose 20¢.
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Nike misses on earnings, but beats on revenues as customers buy more sneakers and sports gear

Consumer spending rose at a healthy clip in May for the 3rd month in a row, suggesting the US economy is still on solid ground even as growth has waned.  Consumer spending increased 0.4% last month, the gov said.  That’s a tick below the MarketWatch forecast, but the increase in spending in Apr was doubled to 0.6% from 0.3%, revised figures show.  Incomes advanced 0.5% for the 2nd month in a row to help support higher household spending.  Inflationary pressures, meanwhile, remained quite low.  Although prices rose slightly in May, the pace of inflation over the past 12 months tapered off to 1.5% from 1.6% using the Federal Reserve's favorite PCE price gauge.  That's well below the Fed's 2% target.  Americans bought more new cars & trucks, rented more hotel rooms & spent more on prepared food or eating out.  Yet since incomes rose slightly faster than spending, the savings rate was unchanged at 6.1%.  Inflation as measured by the PCE index rose 0.2%.  Prices excluding the up-&-down food & energy categories also rose 0.2%.  The core number is viewed as a more reliable barometer of inflation trends because its less prone to sharp swings.  Diminishing inflation & slower growth have positioned the Fed to cut interest rates as soon as Jul to help prolong a record 10-year-old economic expansion & reassure investors, households & businesses.  Consumers are still spending at levels that are very healthy, but the Fed is worried that spending will taper off if Americans begin to lose confidence in the economy.  Earlier this week, a closely followed measure of consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in almost 2 years.  Incomes & wages are not increasingly as rapidly as they were last year, either.

Consumers boost spending in May as incomes rise and inflation stays low


While stocks had an excellent month, so did safe haven gold & Treasuries.  The Dow is up more than 1700 in Jun while gold had its best month in 3 years & Treasury yields are close to multi year lows.  Equities & safe haven investments are no supposed to attract investors at the same time.  Trade talks may cause that relationship to change.

Dow Jones Industrials






 

Thursday, June 27, 2019

Markets climb cautiously on hopes for easing trade tensions

Dow was off 10, advancers over decliners better than 2-1 & NAZ jumped up 57.  The MLP index fell fractionally to the 247s  & the REIT index gained 2+ to the 381s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were purchased, bringing the yield on the 10 year Treasury down to 2%.  Oil was off pennies in the 59s & gold fell 4 to 1411.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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San Francisco Fed Pres Mary Daly said that she is not sure the central bank needs to cut its benchmark interest rate in Jul.  "It is too early to know if we should use the tool [interest rates] at all," Daly said.  The San Francisco Fed pres, who is not a voting member of the Fed's interest-rate committee this year, said she was watching to see if the slowing data, seen over the past 6 weeks, "sticks."  There is no evidence trade tariffs have slowed the economy or caused inflation to rise, she added.  But the tension surrounding trade has caused businesses to become more cautious.  "It is the uncertainty that is holding back the economy," she continued.

Fed's Daly says not sure if interest rates need to be cut


Filings for US unemployment benefits increased by more than expected to a 7-week high, a possible sign of strains in the labor market that could factor in to the Federal Reserve's debate over whether to cut interest rates next month.  Jobless claims rose by 10K to 227K last week, according to the Labor Dept.  That exceeded all estimates in a recent survey.  The 4-week average, a less-volatile measure, increased to 221K, the highest in more than a month.  The uptick in claims may heighten concerns about the strength of the labor market after job gains trailed estimates in May.  Even so, the Jun employment report due next week will likely prove more important as it will provide a detailed picture ahead of Fed meeting in late Jul.  Even with the increase nationally, jobless claims remain near historically low levels as higher wages & low unemployment support consumer spending, which accounts for most of the economy.


Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, shares fell after an intl aviation body added pressure on the company to coordinate 737 Max pilot training for all regulators & airlines around the world, asking for an “alignment on additional training requirements for Boeing 737 MAX flight crew.”  The statement from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) came after the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said yesterday it found another software issue with the company’s grounded 737 Max aircraft.  While the intl aviation body said it trusts the FAA, it added that US regulators need to work in step with intl regulators, as “aviation cannot function efficiently without this coordinated effort.”  The IATA's statement followed its summit in Montreal about the 737 Max, with representatives of over 40 airlines, regulators & other companies attending.  “The Boeing 737 MAX tragedies weigh heavily on an industry that holds safety as its top priority,” IATA Director General & CEO Alexandre de Juniac said.  “Aviation is a globally integrated system that relies on global standards, including mutual recognition, trust, and reciprocity among safety regulators.”  Pressure on BA stock has mounted since yesterday, when the FAA said it had found a new issue with the 737 Max aircraft.  “The FAA’s process is designed to discover and highlight potential risks. The FAA recently found a potential risk that Boeing must mitigate,” the agency said.  With the new delay, the best-case scenario for the first certification flight of the 737 Max is the 2nd week of Jul.  But that could add an additional 6-9 months.  BA disclosed in a filing with the SEC that this new issue was not covered by the changes it had planned for MCAS, a software system that has been the focus of regulators after 2 airplanes crashed since Oct, killing 346.  BA stock sank 10.92 (3%).
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Boeing shares fall after new uncertainty about the 737 Max return

By midday, stocks were bought bringing the Dow into the black.  However that enthusiasm faded in the last 2 hours.  The Dow was also hurt by the decline at BA.  Trade talks are the main driver of the bigger picture for stocks.  Uncertainty about the outcome is likely to last well beyond next week.  While gold has pulled back in the last couple of days, it remains above 1400 because negative thinking investors have not deserted it.

Dow Jones Industrials