Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Markets tumble after Trump says he can wait on a China deal

Dow plunged 445 (wallowing below early session  lows), decliners over advancers 3-1 (relatively mild all considered) & NAZ declined 108.  The MLP index was off 1+ to the 197s (very close to lowest level in more than a decade) & the REIT index recovered 2+ to 402.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries soared, with the the yield on the 10 year Treasury  note dropping a very big 11 basis points to 1.72%.  Oil  fell in the 55s & gold rallied 13 to 1482 as money from stock sales went into gold.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil55.56
   -0.40 -0.7%

GC=FGold   1,484.00
+14.80+1.0%







3 Stocks You Should Own Right Now - Click Here!


Stocks opened sharply lower after Pres Trump said a US-China trade deal may not happen until after the 2020 election.  "In some ways, I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal, but they want to make a deal now and we’ll see whether the deal’s gonna be right -- it's gotta be right," Trump told reporters in London, adding that he has "no deadline" to complete an agreement.  Commodities were mixed with West Texas Intermediate crude oil down 0.2% at $55.85 a barrel & gold up 0.9% at $1482 an ounce.  Treasuries were rallying, pushing the yield on the 10-year note down 7.2 basis points to 1.76%.  In Europe, Britain's FTSE was down 1.8%, France's CAC fell 1.1% while Germany's DAX was little changed.  Overnight, Japan's benchmark Nikkei lost 0.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.2% & China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.3%.

Stocks a sea of red after Trump says China trade deal can wait


Pres Trump tripled down against France's digital tax during a meeting with NATO leaders in London.  France in Jul implemented the 3% tax on companies with more than $834M  in revenue globally & more than $27M in revenue in France made thru certain digital services.  The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) concluded its investigation into the tax yesterday, saying the US would take action against the tax.  "I'm not going to let people take advantage of American companies," the pres said of France's digital tax policy.  "If anyone is going to take advantage of American companies, it's going to be us. It's not going to be France.”  The Trump administration yesterday threatened a 100% tariff on $2.4B of French imports in retaliation of the digital tax.  "Statements by French officials responsible for proposing and enacting the French DST show that the law deliberately targets U.S. companies," the Office of the US Trade Representative said, adding that French officials "repeatedly referred to the French DST as the 'GAFA tax,' which stands for Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB) & Amazon (AMZN)."  Trump added that the US may implement a tax on the European aerospace company Airbus, which has shares that are traded in France.  "If France puts a tax on our companies ... I don't want France taxing American companies," the pres said as a follow-up to the announcement yesterday that it could increase retaliatory tariffs on European goods if the EU continues to provide subsidies to Airbus.  The decision came after the World Trade Organization (WTO) rejected the EU's claim that it no longer provides subsidies to Airbus.  "Strong action is needed to convince the EU that its interests lie in eliminating these market-distorting subsidies now and in the future so that our industries can compete on a level playing field," Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said.

Trump slams France for digital tax on American companies at tense summit


France's finance minister is threatening a “strong European riposte” if the Trump administration follows thru on a proposal to hit French cheese, Champagne, handbags & other products with tariffs - of up to 100%.  The US Trade Representative proposed he tariffs on $2.4B in goods in retaliation for a French tax on global tech giants including Google, Amazon & Facebook.  The move is likely to increase trade tensions between the US & Europe - & set the stage for a likely tense day between Pres Trump & French Pres Macron.  “It’s simply unacceptable,” French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Radio Classique.  “It’s not the behavior we expect from the united states toward one of its main allies.”  Le Maire said the French tech tax is aimed at “establishing tax justice.”  France wants digital companies to pay their fair share of taxes in countries where they make money & is pushing for an intl agreement on the issue.  While insisting that a trade war is “not in anyone’s interest,” Le Maire said France talked this week with the European Commission about EU-wide retaliatory measures if the US follows thru with the tariffs next month.  The US tariffs could double the price American consumers pay for French imports & would come on top of a 25% tax on French wine imposed last month over a separate dispute over subsidies to Airbus & Boeing (BA), a Dow stock.  The Office of the Trade Representative charged that France's new digital services tax discriminates against US companies.  Le Maire disputes that, saying it targets European & Chinese businesses, too.  The tax imposes a 3% annual levy on French revenues of any digital company with yearly global sales worth more than €750M ($830M) & French revenue exceeding €25M.  “What we want is a plan for international tax that is on the table” at the Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development, Le Maire said.  The US investigated the French tax under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 — the same provision the Trump administration used last year to probe China's technology policies, leading to tariffs on more than $360M  worth of Chinese imports in the biggest trade war since the 1930s.

France threatens 'strong' response to Trump's tax on its cheese, wines


Pres Trump said it might be better to wait until after the 2020 election to strike a trade deal with China.  “In some ways, I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal, but they want to make a deal now and we will see whether or not the deal is going to be right,” Trump said.  In reaction to the comments, Dow plunged & turned negative as traders digested the increased likelihood of a delay to any deal.  When asked if he had a deadline for the deal, Trump added: “I have no deadline, no.”  He did not specify whether he was commenting on a complete trade deal between the 2 large economies or his recently touted “phase one” agreement.  DC & Beijing have imposed tariffs on Bs of $s' worth of each other's goods since the start of 2018, battering financial markets & souring business & consumer sentiment.  The next tariff deadline is Dec 15.  If the 2 sides cannot reach a deal by then, additional US levies on Chinese exports will go into effect.  Targeted products include Chinese-made laptops & smartphones.  Criticizing previous US administrations, Trump claimed China had been “ripping off the United States for many, many years,” & this had been done to a “lack of leadership.”  Trump said the trade deal with China was dependent only on one thing — whether he himself wanted to make it.  “We are doing very well with China right now, and we can do even better with the flick of a pen,” Trump added, before claiming that China, in turn, was “having the worst year by far in 57 years.”  Trump said after China had targeted US farmers, his administration decided to dole out $28B over a 2-year period to make sure the agriculture sector wasn't hit in the pocket.  “That got them whole,” Trump claimed.

Trump says it might be better to wait until after 2020 election for a China trade deal

Never a dull moment with Trump in the White4 House (or even on a foreign trip).  The Dow is down a massive 700 in the first 2 days of Dec & the outlook is gloomy.  The bears are hoping they can have a repeat of last years' ugly Dec.  Not much for investors to do beyond investing in gold or Treasuries & hope for the best.. 

Dow Jones Industrials








Monday, December 2, 2019

Markets fall on growing trade tensions

Dow sank 268 (session low), decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ was off 97.  The MLP index fell 1+ to the 199s & the REIT index dropped 6 to the 399s.  Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries remained weak, bringing higher yields.  Oil shot up to about 56 & gold fell 4 to 1468 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




3 Stocks You Should Own Right Now - Click Here!





House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Dems are still hammering out differences with the Trump administration on enforcement mechanisms in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.  Things have been looking up for the USMCA after Mexico & Canada signaled openness to House Dems' demands over the past week.  The 2 countries would have to approve any changes to the trade deal.  Passing USMCA is a priority for the Trump administration, which promised to buoy the US economy by improving a variety of intl trade deals, including replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement.  Members of the administration accuse Pelosi of slow-walking the deal.  Should Pelosi's faction get their addendum, a vote on the entire deal should follow.  "As I said earlier, though we are hoping to come near to conclusion on a US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement," Pelosi said.  "We still have some issues that relate to enforcement because if you don't have enforcement you just have a nice conversation & a list of nice things, but you do not have a fair deal for workers in any of the countries."  "And that's what we want," she continued.  "Not just a good deal for American workers but for all workers so that everyone can thrive. That has an impact on our economies on migration and international relations and again puts a better face on globalization which is inevitable, as we know."  Mexico ratified the deal in Jun, while Canada appears on track to ratify the deal in its new parliament.  Mexico's Undersecretary to North America Jesus Seade met with Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau & Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland about the deal last week.  Seade seemed optimistic & discussed Pelosi's focus on workers' rights for all countries involved.  "Many of the issues raised by Democrats are very valid," Seade said.  "Good things in terms of what they raised. At the same time after one extra year of reviewing the text, a lot of things are coming out. I think we are going to have instead of a very good agreement, an excellent one."

Pelosi explains delaying Trump's signature trade deal


China's Foreign Ministry announced that it was barring the US Navy from making port calls in Hong Kong & announced unspecified sanctions on pro-democracy groups.  Those moves followed Pres Trump's signing last week of legislation supporting human rights in Hong Kong, where often violent prodemocracy protests have persisted for the past 6 months.  It's unclear if or how the latest flare up in antagonisms might affect trade talks between Beijing & DC.  China's foreign ministry urged Canada to free an executive of telecom equipment giant Huawei Technologies held for more than a year as she awaits an extradition trial.  Canada arrested Huawei's CFO, Meng Wanzhou, on Dec1 at Vancouver's airport at the request of the US, which is seeking her extradition on fraud charges.  Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said the US & China were abusing their extradition treaty & violating Meng's rights.  “We once again strongly urge Canada to take seriously China's solemn stance and concerns, take practical measures to correct its mistakes, release Ms. Meng Wanzhou as soon as possible, and ensure that she returns home safely,” Hua said in a routine briefing.  Meng's arrest has further soured relations between Beijing & DC as Pres Trump pressures China on trade & seeks to limit business with Huawei on national security grounds.  It also has embroiled Canada in the friction over Huawei:  Chinese authorities detained 2 Canadians in an apparent attempt to pressure Canada to release Meng.  A daughter of Huawei's founder, Meng is free on bail while staying in 1 of her 2 Vancouver homes, awaiting extradition hearings due to begin on Jan 20.

China retaliates against US Navy after Trump signs human rights bill


The US Trade Representative (USTR) is set to announce any proposed response along with its report on France's digital services tax by today.  French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire seemed pessimistic about US response to the tax, which affects US companies.  "Having demanded an international solution from the [Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development], it [Washington] now isn't sure it wants one," Le Maire said.  "We can see that the United States is shifting into reverse," La Maire said.  He added that Pres Trump "is going to content himself with imposing sanctions against France over its national tax."  In Mar, France introduced the 3% tax on companies with more than $834M in revenue globally & more than $27M in revenue in France made thru certain digital services.  US tech giants such as Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB) & Amazon (AMZN) said the French tax, known as GAFA, an acronym representing all 4 companies, unfairly targets them.  The White House said that "France's unilateral measure appears to target innovative U.S. technology firms that provide services in distinct sectors of the economy."  The purpose of the tax is to remove the loophole that allows M & B$ companies to avoid paying high taxes.  "Digital giants pay 14 percentage points less tax than European [small- and medium-sized enterprises]. The fact that these companies pay less tax than a cheese producer in Quercy is a real problem,"  France Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said in an Apr 3 interview in the Le Parisien.  The US & Paris compromised on the tax in late Aug after Trump threatened to impose tariffs on French wine if the deal fell thru.  US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the purpose of the investigation is to "determine whether [the tax] is discriminatory or unreasonable and burdens or restricts United States commerce."

US trade officials to make big announcement on France's digital tax


Oil prices jumped, lifted by the prospect of longer production cuts by OPEC & its allies as well as evidence of improving economic conditions in China.  Brent crude rose 1.7% to $61.49 & West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.9% to $56.19, both partially recovering from steep declines that took place in thin holiday trading on Fri.  The advance came after a report that Saudi Arabia will push for OPEC & its partners to extend restrictions on oil output thru mid-2020.  The cartel & its Russia-led allies are set to meet in Vienna on Dec 5-6 & will debate whether to prolong their agreement to reduce output by 1.2M barrels a day.  The pact is due to expire in Mar, but Persian Gulf officials said Saudi Arabia is seeking to push back this date to prop up the share price of Saudi Aramco in its IPO.  The state-run oil company is expected to publish its IPO pricing on Thurs.  A key question for the oil market is whether Russia will commit to extend the reductions at this week's meeting or seek to delay the decision until next year.  The rise in oil prices came alongside a broad advance in stocks & other assets that are sensitive to the world economy after 2 indicators suggested Chinese factory output rose in Nov.  The private Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 51.8 from 51.7 in Oct, Caixin Media & IHS Markit said, while China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 from 49.3.  A reading above 50 suggests activity is expanding.  China is the world's largest consumer of industrial commodities, & rising demand for oil there has supported crude prices in recent weeks.  The country's oil demand increased by 640K barrels a day compared with the year before in the 3rd qtr, the Intl Energy Agency (IEA) said in mid-Nov.  For 2019 as a whole, the IEA expects China to consume 13.6M barrels on average each day, a record high.

Oil prices jump on OPEC production cut rumors


A private survey today showed China's manufacturing activity expanded more than expected in Nov as the Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 51.8.  Caixin & IHS Markit said that the pace of improvement was the strongest since Dec 2016.  The index was expected to have fallen to 51.4 in Nov from 51,7 in Oct.  PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below that level signal contraction.  Caixin & IHS Markit said the PMI data signaled a “further modest improvement” in the health of China’s manufacturing sector attributed to “solid increases” in output & new business.  Employment in the sector also remained broadly stable, they added.  China's official PMI was 50.2 in Nov, up from 49.3 in Oct to hit its highest level since Mar, China's National Bureau of Statistics said.  The official PMI survey typically polls a large proportion of big businesses & state-owned enterprises.  The Caixin indicator features a bigger mix of small & medium sized firms.  The data come as US & China remained locked in a long-drawn trade dispute that has weighed on sentiment.

Survey shows China’s manufacturing activity expanded more than expected in November

Gold fell, pressured by a round of upbeat data on Chinese manufacturing activity, but prices finished above the session's worst levels as weakness in the US manufacturing index dulled appetite for stocks.  Gold for Feb delivery fell $3.50 (0.2%) to settle at $1469 an ounce after tapping lows under $1460.  The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index rosen 51.8 in Nov from 51.7 in Oct, said Caixin Media & research firm Markit, with the reading still above the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction.  Earlier, China's official manufacturing PMI reading moved back into expansion activity, rising to 50.2 in Nov from 49.3, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics, marking the first reading above 50 for the index since Apr.  However, in the US, the Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing index sank to 48.1% in Nov from 48.3% in Oct.  The forecast called for the index to reach 49.2%.

Gold settles off session lows after data show weakness in U.S. manufacturing

Traders started the new month by selling stocks after plenty of negative intl trade stories.  Trade tensions have increased & macro economic data has been disappointing.  Last Dec was a brutal month for the stock market & investors hope this year will be a better time for stocks.

Dow Jones Industrials








Markets pull back on worse than expected manufacturing report

Dow dropped 155, decliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ lost 105.  The MLP index dipped slightly to go under 201 & the REIT index  fell 4 to the 401s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were sold.  Oil climbed to the 56s & gold like stocks was also sold, down 5 to 1467.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil56.09
 +0.92+1.7%

GC=FGold     1,467.90
-4.80 -0.3%






3 Stocks You Should Own Right Now - Click Here!


One-qtr of multinational companies have no contingency plans should the US-China trade war drag on, according to a survey that gathered more than 260 anonymous responses from businesses.  "When asked about how many months’ worth of contingency plans their organization has in place to cope with the effects of the trade war, the answers showed that companies were still falling short in terms of risk mitigation planning," wrote the authors of the study, which was conducted by German logistics company DHL.  25% of respondents said they had no contingency plans, 20.4% said they had plans for up to 6 months & 34%  said they had prepared for 6-18 months out.  The companies represented industries including health care, technology & technology, automotive, energy, retail, chemicals & more.  The least prepared sectors were engineering & manufacturing (47.6%  had no contingency plans) & automotive & mobility (40% had no plans).  Even though a big chunk of firms surveyed said they had no contingency plans, more than 2/3 reported being impacted by US-China trade tensions.  China expects the US to roll back some tarifss on its exports as part of a trade deal, an official newspaper said oday, reiterating Beijing's insistence that Pres Trump's administration can be "flexible" & "reasonable."  The comments come amid negotiations on a preliminary "phase one" agreement aimed at resolving the tariff war between the 2 large economies.  New US tariffs are set to kick in on many Chinese-made products as of Dec 15.  A preliminary deal could avert that.

Survey shows real danger to US business from China trade war


China expects the US to roll back some tariffs on its exports as part of a trade deal, an official newspaper said, reiterating Beijing's insistence that Pres Trump's administration be “flexible” & “reasonable.”  The Communist Party newspaper Global Times ran several articles today that emphasized there would be no deal without a promise to phase out the tariffs imposed by DC.  It cited officials saying that China will buy American farm products & the amount “could be substantial, but it cannot promise a specific number in the deal because the amount must be based on market demands.”  The comments come amid negotiations on a preliminary “Phase 1” agreement aimed at resolving the 18-month-old tariff war between the 2 economies. “Rolling back tariffs is a must. The China-US trade war (was) instigated by the US with tariffs, so the tariffs have to be cut first,” the newspaper quoted Wei Jianguo, a former Chinese commerce minister as saying.  It said China was already addressing issues such as protection of intellectual property, foreign investment regulations & opening of its financial markets independently of the trade talks.  Chinese officials earlier said the US side had agreed to gradually phase out the tariffs as progress is made on ending the dispute over trade & technology.  The US side did not confirm that.  Last week, both sides suggested that they were close to striking a deal.  Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said he had invited senior US officials to Beijing for further talks.  Trump said the talks were in their “final throes” of negotiations.  That was before China reacted with outrage to Trump's decision to sign legislation supporting human rights in Hong Kong.  Officials have not yet specified how or if Beijing will follow through on threats of “countermeasures.”  New US tariffs are set to kick in on many Chinese-made products as of Dec 15.  A preliminary deal could avert that.  But promising to not implement the next tranche of tariffs would not suffice, the Global Times said.  It said there was a “reasonable choice” for Trump to roll back some tariffs for the first deal & leave others for later, to “save the optics of the deal in the U.S. political climate and save the phase one deal.”

China repeats demand for rollback of US tariffs for deal


Manufacturing activity continued to lag in Nov amid a lag in inventories & new orders, according to the latest ISM Manufacturing reading.  The reading came in at 48.1 vs. an expectation of 49.4 & the previous month’s reading of 48.3.  Though the ISM reading is usually reported as a simple number, it actually denotes the percentage of manufacturers planning to expand operations.  A reading below 50 represents contraction; Nov was the 4th straight month below the expansion level.  Stocks fell on the report.  New orders slumped to 47.2, down 1.9 percentage points from Oct's 49.1.  Inventories, which are a key input for GDP, came in at 45.5, down 3.4 points from the previous month.  The numbers come amid speculation about the pace of US growth.  Recession worries have ebbed from earlier in the year, when the Treasury yield curve was inverted & flashing what has been a reliable 12-month recession indicator for the past 50 years.  GDP growth has averaged around 2.4% in 2019, with Q3 coming in at 2.1%.  However, most forecasters expect Q4 to come in under 2%.  Manufacturing is considered a reliable bellwether for how the rest of the economy is doing, though it comprises only about 1/5 of GDP.  Nearly all of the key ISM indicators were at contraction levels in Nov.  Employment was at 46.6, down 1.1 point for the month, while export orders fell 2.5 points to 47.9 as the US & China continue to look for a resolution to a trade dispute that began more than a year & a ½ ago.  Supplier deliveries was one of the few metrics in expansion, rising 2.5 points to 52.  In a related release, the Markit manufacturing reading, known as the Purchasing Managers Index, indicated expansion, coming in at 52.6, just above expectations & a bit better than the 51.3 Oct reading.  The Markit PMI growth reflected an uptick in production & new orders as well as strength in employment indicators.  It was the strongest reading in 7 months.

A key manufacturing index shows the US remains in contraction territory

Gloomy news on manufacturing data sent stocks lower.  More economic data is coming this week, highlighted by the big jobs report on Fri.  Traders are nervous.  Additional stumbling on the trade negotiations are not helping stocks.

Dow Jones Industrials