Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Markets rise on progress in treating Coronavirus

Dow soared 483 (close to its high), advancers over decliners about 3-1 & NAZ went up 40. The MLP index rose 2+ to the 206s & the REIT index was fractionally lower to the 415s. Junk bond funds were slightly higher & Treasuries continued weak while stocks were being purchased.  Oil jumped up 1+ to the 51s (more below) & gold gained 5 to 1560.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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The US trade deficit fell for the first time in 6 years in 2019 as Pres Trump hammered China import taxes.  The Commerce Dept said that the gap between what the US sells & what it buys abroad fell 1.7% last year to $616.8B.  US exports fell 0.1% to $2.5T.  But imports fell more, slipping 0.4% to $3.1T.  Imports of crude oil plunged 19.3% to $126.6B.  The deficit in the trade of goods with China narrowed last year by 17.6% to $346B.  Trump has imposed tariffs on $360B worth of Chinese imports in a battle over Beijing's aggressive drive to challenge American technological dominance.  The world's 2 biggest economies reached an interim trade deal last month & Trump dropped plans to extend the tariffs to another $160B in Chinese goods.  But goods trade gap with Mexico rose 26.2B last year to a record $101.8B.  The goods deficit with the EU also hit a record, $177.9B -- up 5.5% from 2018.  Overall, the US posted a $866B deficit in the trade of goods such as cars & appliances, down from $887B in 2018.  But it ran a $249B surplus in the trade of services such as tourism & banking, down from $260B in 2018.  Trump campaigned on a promise to reduce America's massive & persistent trade deficits, which he sees as a sign of economic weakness & the result of lopsided trade deals that put US exporters at a disadvantage.  He has negotiated a new trade agreement with Canada & Mexico that he says will bring more balance to trade in North America.  Mainstream economists argue that trade deficits are largely the result of a big economic reality that doesn't respond much to changes in trade policy: Americans spend more than they produce, & imports fill the gap.  In Dec, the overall trade gap widened 11.9% to $49B as exports rose 0.8% to $209.6B & imports climbed 2.7% to $258.5B.

US trade deficit drops for first time in 6 years as Trump hammers China with taxes


Maryland-based Novavax (NVAX) is aiming to make a coronavirus vaccine in as little as 3 months, although such vaccines can take years to develop.  Its pres of research & development confirmed that the company has the coronavirus gene.  "I can confirm we have the gene, and that’s the blueprint for our vaccine," NVAX's Dr Gregory Glenn said.  "We’re on the way."  The company made an ebola vaccine in 90 days, Glenn said.  "I would just say 90 days from the sequence being identified to starting the clinic — that’s the speed of light for vaccines," he added. "We’re hoping to meet something close to that or exceed it if possible."  His team is working nearly 24/7.  "They see the disaster going on in China and spreading, and it portends a very worrisome scenario for the rest of the world," Glenn said.  "That motivates everybody."  The virus has infected more than 24K globally, with nearly all cases & deaths concentrated in China.  Shares of NVAX shot up in Jan on word that the Food & Drug Administration opted to fast track its recombinant quadrivalent flu vaccine, NanoFlu, for adults aged 65 years & older.  It's stock didn't seem to get a boost from its coronavirus news, however.  The stock slid back 4¢.
If you would like to learn moire about NVAX, click on this link:
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US biotech firm using coronavirus gene to make vaccine, could have in monthsf


General Motors (GM) posted a Q4 loss as the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike heavily impacted its business.  The automaker's EPS was a loss or 16¢, as net revenue fell 19.7% from a year ago to $30.8B.  Adjusted EPS of 5¢ topped the 1¢ that was expected.  For the full year, GM earned $6.7B, down 17.4% from the prior year, including the $3.6B hit from the UAW strike.  Annual revenue was $137.2B, down 6.7% from the prior year.  “GM is positioned for strong, long-term business results with a focus on sustainability, and we are confident that our EV and AV strategies will drive shareholder value while improving the environment,” CEO Mary Barra said, referring to electric & autonomous, or self-driving, vehicles.  Chevrolet & GMC full-size pickups remained the backbone of GM's business in 2019.  Combined sales of the Chevrolet Silverado & the GMC Sierra totaled 803K vehicles, up almost one percentage point from the prior year.  GM continues to set its sights on a fully electric future.  Last week, the automaker said it would relaunch the Hummer as an electric vehicle.  In Dec, the automaker announced a joint venture with LG Chem to produce battery cells at a Lordstown, Ohio, plant.  Looking ahead, GM expects to benefit from new product launches, ongoing cost savings & a lean inventory, but says those gains will be pared by broader industry & economic challenges.  New vehicles include a number of full-size SUVs & crossovers.  GM sees 2020 full-year EPS of $5.75-6.25, unchanged from the prior year.  The stock rose 66¢.
If you would like to learn moire about GM, click on this link:
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GM reveals massive hit it took from UAW strike


Oil futures finished higher after gov data revealed a drop in both US gasoline & distillate stockpiles, rallying prices for the petroleum products, even though domestic supplies of crude posted a 2nd straight weekly climb.  Prices were climbing even before the supply data & US benchmark crude halted a 5-session skid.  Unverified claims of progress toward coronavirus vaccines, which could stem the spread of the Asian outbreak that has crushed expectations for demand from China, provided support for oil.  Reports that OPEC & its allies were considering deeper production cuts at a technical meeting in Vienna also buoyed oil, though that meeting has reportedly ended with no announcement, but with plans to reconvene for an unscheduled 3rd day tomorrow.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Mar delivery rose $1.14 (2.3%) to settle at $50.75 a barrel.  The commodity entered a bear market on Mon, usually defined as a decline from a recent peak of at least 20%.  Apr Brent crude gained $1.32 (2.5%) to $55.28 a barrel, following its lowest settlement since Dec 31, 2018 yesterday.  The intl benchmark also entered a bear market on Mon.

Oil futures end higher as U.S. gasoline and distillate stockpiles decline and coronavirus concerns ebb

This was a curious day.  The stock market rose on hopes for a new vaccine for coronavirus, but the the manufacturer's stock was a little lower.  That's curious!  The Dow was strong all day, closing pretty much at its high & within 100 of setting a new record.  The bulls are anxious.

Dow Jones Industrials









Markets rise on a very strong jobs report for January

Dow shot up 227, advancers over decliners about 3-1 & NAZ added 2 & is sliding lower in recent trading.  The MLP index rose 4+ to the 2090s & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 416s (near record territory.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were sold bringing higher yields again.  Oil recovered 2 to the 51s & gold rebounded 6 to 1562.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil51.39
+1.78+3.6%

GC=FGold   1,558.10
+2.60+0.2%






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Stocks opened at or near record highs after a report indicated a coronavirus vaccine could come sooner than expected.  A UK researcher said a breakthrough has been made that cut the development time for a vaccine from 2-3 years to 14 days,  Sky News reported.  The coronavirus outbreak has sickened more than 24K & killed 490, according to figures released yesterday by China's National Health Commission.  Also helping the major averages was the blowout ADP Employment Report, which showed the private sector added 291K jobs in Jan, easily exceeding the 156K jobs that was expected.  The early gains have the NAZ trading in record territory while the S&P 500 & Dow trade just below their own all-time highs.  Commodities were higher with West Texas Intermediate crude oil surging 2.5% to $50.85 a barrel & gold up 0.2% to near $1558 an ounce.  Treasuries were weaker, causing the yield on the 10-year note to climb by 4.8 basis points to 1.649%.  In Europe, Germany's DAX paced the gains, up 1.4%, while France's CAC & Britain's FTSE were higher by 1% & 0.6%, respectively.  Markets rallied across Asia, with China's Shanghai Composite gaining 1.3%, Japan's Nikkei climbing 1% & Hong Kong's Hang Seng adding 0.4%.

Stocks surge toward records on coronavirus breakthrough report, blowout jobs numbers


Private employers added 291K jobs in Jan, soaring past expectations for the best monthly gain in more than 5 years, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report.  The total far exceeded the 156K jobs that economists were expecting  "Mild winter weather provided a significant boost to the January employment gain," Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi said.  "The leisure and hospitality and construction industries in particular experienced an outsized increase in jobs."  Growth was spread across a swath of sectors, boosted by the services-providing sector, which accounted for 237K new positions created last month, while the goods-producing sector added 54K.  In particular, construction posted a 47K bounce, the best monthly gain since Apr.  The manufacturing sector expanded its payroll by 10K.  Education & health services also accounted for 70K jobs, while the leisure & hospitality sector added 96K to the total number.  Leisure & hospitality & construction are among the most sensitive industries to weather, Zandi said.  "My guess is that extracting from the vagaries of this data, and it goes beyond weather, underlying job growth is probably somewhere around half the size of the January gain, probably around 150,000 jobs."  That estimate, he said, is stable enough to maintain a record-low level of unemployment.  The report included a slight downward revision in Dec numbers.  The ADP Research Institute said the private sector added 199K 2 months ago, down from the 202K jobs initially reported.  The data precedes the release of more closely watched update from the Labor Dept on Fri, which is expected to show the US economy added 160K jobs last month.  Analysts anticipate unemployment will hold steady at 3.5%, a ½-century low.  In Dec, the US added a slightly lower-than-expected strong 145K jobs.

Private sector jobs added in January blow past economists' expectations


Total cases: More than 24K as of today.
Total deaths: At least 490 worldwide as of today.
Adidas confirmed that it has closed a significant number of stores in China because of the coronavirus.  The company is currently operating less than 500 stores in China, 4% of the 12K locations it has there, including franchise stores. The company said it is too early to assess the magnitude of the virus' impact.  Singapore's health ministry confirmed 4 more coronavirus cases, including a 6-month-old baby.  Both parents of the infant, a Singapore citizen, have also been infected, the ministry said.  Yesterday, Singapore reported its first cases of citizens & residents who had contracted the virus without recent travel to China, where the outbreak first surfaced in late Dec.  Michael Kors owner Capri Holdings said it has taken a $100M hit to revenue because of the coronavirus.  Capri closed 150 of its 225 stores in mainland China & has seen a significantly drop in foot traffic.  The company warned that travel restrictions on visitors from China could also put pressure on sales in other regions.  “This is going to be a very tough period for luxury brands,” said the China Market Research Group in Shanghai.  “There is going to be a negative long-term effect as well, as many corporate offices are shut down or barely functioning and this is a key time period for planning future seasons.”

Coronavirus live updates: Singapore confirms infant with virus, ECB chief warns of uncertainty

US services sector activity picked up in Jan, with industries reporting increases in new orders, suggesting the economy could continue to grow moderately this year even as consumer spending is slowing.  The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its non-manufacturing activity index increased to a reading of 55.5 last month, the highest level since Aug.  Data for Dec was revised slightly down to show the index at a reading of 54.9 instead of the previously reported 55.0.  A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than 2/3 of US economic activity.  The forecast the index was for unchanged at a reading of 55.0 in Jan.  The report came on the heels of a survey from the ISM on Mon showing manufacturing rebounded in Jan after contracting for 5 straight months. The improvement in manufacturing, which accounts for 11% of the economy, reflected easing tensions in the 19-month US.-China trade war.  Any recovery in manufacturing, however, is likely to be limited by Boeing's (BA), a Dow stock, suspension last month of the production of its troubled 737 MAX jetliner, grounded last Mar following 2 fatal crashes.  The coronavirus, which has killed hundreds in China & infected thousands globally, is expected to disrupt supply chains, especially for electronics producers.  The economy grew 2.3% last year, the slowest since 2016, after expanding 2.9% in 2018.  The ISM survey's measure of new orders for the services industry increased to a reading of 56.2 in Jan from 55.3 in Dec.  Order backlogs, however, continued to contract in Jan, which could curb growth in the services sector.  The survey’s index for services industry employment slipped to a reading of 53.1 last month from 54.8 in Dec.  This is in line with slowing job growth, both as workers become more scarce & demand for labor cools.  The economy created 2.1M jobs in 2019, the least since 2011 & down from 2.7M in 2018.  Growth in consumer spending slowed considerably in the final 3 months of 2019.

US services sector growth picks up in January

Stocks are benefiting on hopes for coronavirues treatments.  Sounds good but technology breakthroughs takes to time to implement.  The Jan data above also is encouraging for investors.  The Volatility Index (VIX) is close to the mid teen levels during rally times in this multi year rally.  The Dow is about 300 away from its recent record highs.

Dow Jones Industrials








Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Higher markets rise, adding to yesterday's advance

Dow shot up 407, advancers over decliners 3-1 & NAZ surged 194 to a new record.  The MLP index gained 2+ to the 204s & the REIT index rose 4+ to the 415s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were heavily sold, bringing higher yields.  Oil slid below 50 (more below) & gold tumbled 24 to 1557 after its recent run to the high 1500s.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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For companies bracing for losses from China's viral outbreak, the damage has so far been delayed, thanks to a stroke of timing:  The outbreak hit just when Chinese factories & many businesses were closed anyway to let workers travel home for the week-long Lunar New Year holiday.  But the respite won't last.  If much of industrial China remains on lockdown for the next few weeks, a very real possibility, western retailers, auto companies & manufacturers that depend on Chinese imports will start to run out of the goods they depend on.  In order to meet deadlines for summer goods, retail experts say that Chinese factories would need to start ramping up production by Mar 15.  If Chinese factories were instead to remain idle thru May 1, it would likely cripple retailers' crucial back-to-school & fall seasons.  "There's complete uncertainty,'' said Steve Pasierb, CEO of the Toy Industry Association.  "This could be huge if it goes on for months.''  Wuhan, the Chinese city where the outbreak hit hardest, is a center of automotive production.  It's been closed off, along with neighboring cities, isolating more than 50M people & bringing factories to a standstill.  So far, US automakers haven't had to curb production for want of Chinese parts.  The partial shutdown of Wuhan has already harmed the production of TV display panels & raised prices, according to a report by research group IHS Markit.  The city has 5 factories making liquid crystal displays, known as LCDs, & organic light-emitting diodes, known as OLEDs, both of which are used for television & laptop monitors.  China accounts for more than ½ of the global production of these display panels.  David Hsieh, an analyst at IHS Markit, said in a report that "these factories are facing shortages of both labor and key components as a result of mandates designed to limit the contagion's spread," leading suppliers to raise panel prices more aggressively.

Companies face 'huge' hit if virus keeps Chinese factories closed much longer


Oil futures gave up earlier gains to finish with a loss, with US prices below $50 a barrel for the first time in more than a year, as demand worries continue to plague the market.  Prices fell even as OPEC & its allies considered deeper production cuts to stem a coronavirus-inspired tumble in the commodity that entered a bear market a day ago.  There are reports that OPEC & its allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, were considering cutting crude output by a further 500K barrels a day.  However, among the scenarios under discussion at a technical meeting held in Vienna today & tomorrow, one may be even larger production cuts of 800K-1M barrels a day.  Officials said that they are set to issue recommendations this week, with a final decision to come after a meeting of OPEC & its allies, likely sometime next week.  OPEC's website still lists the next group gathering as Mar 5 for the special meeting of the OPEC Conference & Mar 6 for the OPEC+ meeting.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Mar delivery lost 50¢ (1%) to settle at $49.61 a barrel, a day after it entered a bear market, down 20.8% from its recent high of $63.27 on Jan 6.  A decline of at least 20% from a recent peak is the traditional definition of a bear market.  Today's settlement was the lowest since Jan 7, 2019.  Apr Brent crude fell 49¢ (0.9%) to $53.96 a barrel, its lowest settlement since Dec 31, 2018.  The intl benchmark entered into a bear market yesterday, down 21% from its recent high of $69.02 last Sep 16.  As of midnight yesterday, China had 20,438 diagnosed coronavirus cases, with 425 deaths, according to China's National Health Commission.

Oil ends at lowest in over a year; U.S. prices drop under $50 a barrel


Ralph Lauren (RL) beat market expectations for the holiday-qtr profit today, as higher prices for its winterwear boosted margins, sending the fashion house's shares higher.  The company has said it could sell products at higher prices due to a ramp-up in marketing, especially on social media thru supermodels & actors, which has helped lift its brand image.  Its marketing expenses rose 16% in fiscal Q3, while average prices at its own stores & website gained 6%.  Adjusted gross margin rose by 60 basis points.  Net revenue rose 1.4% to $1.75B in the qtr ended Dec 28, inching past average the estimate of $1.72B.  The company expects fiscal 2020 revenue, excluding fluctuations in foreign exchange, to rise 2-3%.  This does not include any potential impact from the outbreak of a new coronavirus in China.  The company's EPS rose nearly 3-fold to $4.41, lifted by a one-time tax benefit.  Excluding one-time items, EPS was $2.86, beating the expectation of $2.45.  The stock soared 10.32 (9%).
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Higher winterwear prices boost Ralph Lauren holiday margins

Yesterday, stocks rose but finished below early highs.  Today the rally was extended.  The Dow opened substantially higher & held those elevated levels all day.  It's difficult to understand the reasons for bidding stocks higher while the coronavirus is spreading its influence which will be bearish for companies around the world.  Maybe they're hoping Trump's speech tonight will bring bullish word.  Whatever, the bulls are in charge of the stock market this week.

Dow Jones Industrials