Friday, October 2, 2020

Markets fall on Trump COVID diagnosis

Dow fell 174 (off early lows), decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ pulled back 187.  The MLP index lost 1 to the 106s & the REIT index was fractionally higher in the 354s,  Junk bond funds were weak & Treasuries edged lower.  Oil dropped 1+ to the 37s & gold was off 2 to 1913.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil37.55
-1.15-1.3%

GC=FGold   1,910.00
-6.30-3.0%

The US economy added 661K jobs in Sep, suggesting the labor market's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic is beginning to plateau amid fading gov relief money & a gradually growing virus caseload.  The Labor Dept's payroll report is the last before the presidential election, for which the coronavirus pandemic & the subsequent economic recession have been a major issue.  It showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.9% from 8.4%.  The forecast called for the report to show that unemployment dropped to 8.2% & the economy added 850K jobs.  It's well below the combined 7.5M jobs added in May & Jun before hiring cooled in Jul, with the growth of 1.9M positions, & in Aug, with 1.4M created.  There are still roughly 10.7M more out-of-work Americans than there were in Feb before the pandemic hit.

Unemployment rate drops as US economy adds 661k jobs in September

Pres Trump was experiencing “mild symptoms” after testing positive for the coronavirus, White House chief of staff Mark Meadows confirmed.  The news came hours after the pres disclosed that he & first lady Melania Trump had tested positive.  Meadows said today that Trump is “in good spirits.”  The White House is discussing whether the pres will address the country in some manner about his diagnosis.  Trump, who is 74 years old & overweight, is in categories of people considered at higher risk for adverse effects from the disease.  VP Mike Pence & his wife each tested negative for the virus, the White House.  White House physician Dr Sean Conley said that he expects Trump to “continue carrying out his duties without disruption while recovering.”  A White House official said that some staffers who were in contact with the pres yesterday are working from home on today.  “As this virus continues to go on, other people in the White House will certainly have a positive test result, and we’ve got the mitigation plan in place for that,” Meadows said.  Trump said in his AM tweet today that he & his wife were beginning their quarantine process after the positive test.  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines recommend people who believe they may have been exposed to the virus should quarantine for 14 days.

Trump experiencing 'mild symptoms' after coronavirus diagnosis

Americans grew more optimistic toward the end of Sep as consumer sentiment reached a 6-month, reflecting more confidence in the US economy after a summer lull.  The final consumer sentiment survey in Sep climbed to 80.4 from a preliminary reading of 78.9, the Univ of Mich said.  It was also up from Aug's 74.1 score.  The index now sits at the highest level since the pandemic erupted in Mar, mirroring the results of other household surveys.  Earlier this week the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index also shot up to a pandemic high.  A decline in coronavirus cases earlier in the month helped lift the optimism of consumers, as did the creation of more jobs.  The US regained 661K jobs in Sep & 877K in the private sector, the gov reported.  An index that measures current conditions rose to 87.8 from a preliminary 87.5 reading earlier in the month.  Consumers also felt somewhat better about the rest of the year.  An index that measures expectations for the next 6 months edged up to 75.6 from a preliminary 73.3 reading & 68.5 in Aug.  “While consumers have anticipated gains in the national economy ever since the April shutdown, the September survey recorded a significant increase in the proportion that expected a reestablishment of good times financially in the overall economy,” said Richard Curtin, the chief economist of the survey.  Yet confidence was greater among wealthier Americans than other households, highlighting the wide disparity in who’s been hurt most by the coronavirus.  Many workers in lower-paying jobs in hotels, restaurants, retail stores & other service-oriented businesses have suffered higher levels of unemployment.  “The data indicate that lower-income households face continued income and job losses compared with the modest gains expected by upper-income households,” Curtin added.  Higher confidence has long been associated with stronger economic growth & faster hiring.  Throughout the pandemic consumer confidence has been shaped by the ebb & flow of coronavirus cases & the steady return of people to work.  As long as the virus remains under control, the economy is likely to continue to recover. But if the virus starts spread faster again or rehiring slows, confidence is bound to suffer another blow

Consumer sentiment improves in late September and hits six-month high

In overnight trading stocks fell on the initial report about Trump's diagnosis.  Today markets are absorbing the news & also learned about the monthly jobs report & consumer confidence improvement shown above.  Trading will likely be gloomy for the rest of trading today.

Dow Jones Industrials

Thursday, October 1, 2020

Markets declined as investors monitor stimulus talks

Dow finished up 35, advancers over decliners about 2-1 & NAZ advanced 139.  The MLP index fell 1+ to the 106s & the REIT index went up 5+ to 353.  Junk bond funds  remained slightly higher & Treasuries were steady.  Oil dropped 1+ to the 38s (more below) & gold 18 to 1912.

General Motors' Q3 total auto sales fell 10%, but the company said there were "signs of recovery" in the auto industry & highlighted its Sep sales.  GM delivered 665K vehicles in the qtr, a 10% drop compared with the year-ago period, but sales improved each month within the 3-month span.  The industry & GM sales "rebounded significantly in September, finishing the month with year-over-year sales increases," the company said.  Retail sales also were a reason for optimism & GM said its pickup trucks & SUVs "are selling extremely fast."  GM "remains focused on producing the right mix of vehicles to meet demand. Large pickup and full-size SUV plants are all operating on three shifts and at maximum overtime," it said.  The stock rose 80¢.
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Homebuyers hoping that a seasonal slowdown in the housing market would dampen rising prices can forget about it.  More buyers piled into the fray in Sep, spurred by record-low mortgage rates & a pandemic-induced stay-at-home culture, pushing sales to an even faster pace.  In the first read on Sep demand, homes sold 12 days faster than they did a year ago, according to realtor.com.  Homes usually sell 25% faster in Sep than at the start of the year, but this year they sold 39% faster.  It took just 54 days to sell a home during the month.  That is the shortest time since realtor.com began tracking this metric in 2016.  Back then it took 78 days.  The median price of a home sold in Sep was $350K, up just over 11% annually.

Homes sold two weeks faster in September due to unusual surge in demand

Pepsico (PEP), a Dividend Aristocrat, forecast full-year profit above market expectations after a rebound in soda sales & increased demand for the company's snacks during the COVID-19 crisis helped drive quarterly sales higher.  The company beat revenue & profit estimates for Q3.  People spending more time working from home & taking online classes has led to a rise in demand for company products from households across North America.  Sales of snacks under the Frito-Lay North America unit, rose 7% in the qtr, while higher demand for breakfast foods led to a 6% rise at its Quaker Foods business.  "Both FritoLay and Quaker Foods continued to deliver robust growth as at home consumption trends have remained strong despite the measured reopening of economies and activities in certain areas, since May," CEO Ramon Laguarta.  Higher demand for Starbucks branded coffee & energy drinks as well as low calorie versions of Gatorade, Mountain Dew & Pepsi helped boost revenue of PepsiCo's North America beverage business by 6%.  That helped offset a slump in sales at restaurants, theaters & stadiums, which has been hurting the unit since the start of the pandemic.  Overall net revenue rose more than 5% to $18.1B, beating expectations of $17.2B.  Its forecast full-year core EPS of $5.50, above expectations of $5.36.  Net EPS attributable to the company rose 9.1% to $1.65.  Excluding items, the EPS was $1.66 per share, beating expectation of $1.49.  The stock went up 2.20.
If you would like to learn more about PEP, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PEP?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

PepsiCo sees strong annual profit as snacks, sodas thrive in pandemic

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin will try to scrape together a coronavirus stimulus deal later today as more trouble spots emerge in the US economic recovery.  The pair spoke by phone for about 50 minutes in the last hour & plan to talk again later in the day, Pelosi's spokesman Drew Hammill said.  They aimed to clarify both the amount of money to put into a potential bill & the language of the legislation, “but distance on key areas remain,” he added.  After Pelosi & Mnuchin met in person yesterday but did not reach a deal on a 5th coronavirus relief package.

Oil futures were sharply lower, with prices logging their lowest settlement since mid-Sep, as worries about rising cases of COVID-19 worldwide fed expectations for a slowdown in energy demand.  Crude oil investors have closely followed the spread of the disease because it can have a detrimental impact on appetite for oil as economies stall.   Europe was implementing or planning to reinstitute new social-distance restrictions as COVID-19 cases climb.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Nov dropped $1.50 (3.7%) to settle at $38.72 a barrel.  Prices for the US benchmark, based on the front-month contracts, saw monthly fall of 5.6%, but ended 2.4% higher for the qtr.  Oil prices in Sep suffered their first monthly decline since Apr.  Dec Brent crude shed $1.37 (3.2%) at $40.93 a barrel after trading as low as $39.92.

Oil settles at lowest price in more than 2 weeks

The Dow had been in the black until the last 2 hours when sellers took it into the red.  But buying at the close gave it a small gain  Investors are nervous anout the fate of the stimulus bill.  Time is running out before the guys in DC go on vacation again.  Prospects for a bill are dim.  On the positive sign, the Dow is near its record just 1700 away.

Dow Jones Industrials








Markets rise on jobless claims and manufacturing data

Dow climbed 101, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ went up 99.  The MLP index fell 2 to 106 & the REIT index added 1+ to 349.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries slid lower in price.  Oil fell dropped 2+ to the 37s & gold rebounded 18 to 1913.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil
38.36   
-1.86  -4.6%




GC=FGold  
 1,907.70
+12.20 +0.6%








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The number of Americans applying for state unemployment benefits inched down last week, indicating the pace of layoffs is still elevated even as the economy slowly recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.  The latest jobless claims figures from the Labor Dept show that 837K workers sought aid last week, still about 4-times the pre-crisis level.  The forecast called for 850K new claims.  Last week"s figure was revised upward by 3K to 873K.  The number of people who are continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell to 11.7M, a decline of 980K from the previous week.  Roughly 1M unemployed Americans have been seeking aid each week for the past 6 months, when the COVID-19 crisis triggered an unprecedented shutdown of the nation's economy, pointing to a sluggish turnaround.  It's down from the peak of more than 6M claims in late Mar, but remains well above the 200K reported in Feb.  Before the pandemic, the record high was 695K set in 1982.  There's also an asterisk to the data:  California paused processing initial claims for 2 weeks in an effort to clear a backlog & adopt fraud-prevention technology.  This week's report reflects the level during the last week before the pause & will be adjusted at a later date.

Another 837,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week

American manufacturers grew in Sep for the 5th month in a row as they reconfigured their factories to cope with the coronavirus & brought back more workers, a closely followed survey showed.  The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing index slipped to 54.6% in Sep from a 21-month high of 56% in the prior month.  Readings over 50% indicate growth.  The forecast called for the index to total 56.5%.  Although the index fell for the first time since Apr, the tenor of the Sep report was quite positive.  New orders & production were strong again & a contraction in employment since the start of the pandemic neared an end.  “Manufacturing performed well in the month with demand, consumption and inputs registering growth indicative of a normal expansion cycle,” said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the survey.  “While certain industry sectors are experiencing difficulties that will continue in the near term, the manufacturing community as a whole has learned to conduct business effectively and deal with the variables imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic,” he added.  14 of the 18 industries tracked by ISM expanded in Sep.  The index for new orders slipped 7.4 points, but it was still quite robust at 60.2%.  Ditto for production: The gauge fell 2.3 points to 61%, but any reading over 60 is very vigorous.  The sharp rebound in manufacturing shown by the ISM survey suggests the US economy is recovering faster than expected, but business has by no means returned to normal.  What the ISM survey is designed to reveal is simply whether business is getting better or worse each month, not how much better.  Most manufacturers are still producing fewer goods with fewer workers than they were before the pandemic, & it'll likely be some time before output & employment climb above precrisis levels given depressed demand at home & abroad.

U.S. manufacturers expand for fifth month in a row, ISM finds, but at slower pace

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin will try to scrape together a coronavirus stimulus deal as more trouble spots emerge in the US economic recovery.  After the pair met in person yesterday to try to craft a 5th pandemic relief package, they said they would continue negotiations toward an agreement.  The House, which had aimed to pass a $2.2T Dem bill yesterday night, delayed a vote until at least today to allow more time for Pelosi & Mnuchin to hash out a bipartisan plan that could get thru both chambers of Congress.  It is unclear whether the speaker & secretary would huddle in person again.  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has opposed the Dem legislation, meaning it likely will not get thru the Rep-led chamber.  Pelosi sounded “frustrated” & “fired up” when talking about the state of the discussions during a Dem whip conference call, a source said.  The speaker said the GOP does not “share our values” or want to put what she sees as needed money into state & local govs & health care, the source added.  During the meeting yesterday, Mnuchin offered a $1.6T proposal — up from the $1.3T the White House had embraced, including $250B for state & local gov relief, $400 per week in extra unemployment benefits, $150B for education, $75B for Covid-19 testing & contact tracing, & $60B for rental & mortgage assistance.  The effort to revive aid discussions follows weeks of pessimism about Congress' ability to boost the US economy & health-care system before the election.  Lawmakers have not passed new relief funds in months as Dems & Reps wrestle over how to structure a package.

Pelosi and Mnuchin take a last-ditch shot at a coronavirus stimulus deal

The economic data was good enough, which is the standard used today.  The new stimulus bill is alive, but just barely.  Investors are  hoping for a good report on new jobs created in the economy in Sep & unemployment data tomorrow.  Today they're buying stocks.

Dow Jones Industrials