Monday, October 5, 2020

Markets climb after he announces he plans to leave hospital shortly

Dow shot up 465 (near highs of the day), advancers over decliners almost 3-1 & NAZ soared 257.  The MLP index added 4+ to the 112s & the REIT index rose 1+ to the 361s.  Junk bond funds went up & Treasuries were sold all day while stocks rallied.  Oil remained in demand, up 2+ to the 39s, & gold advanced 10 to 1917 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
 
stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil39.48
  -1.63-4.0%

GC=FGold   1,913.30
-48.80-2.5%

 




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Gold futures climbed, marking their highest settlement in just over a week, with a softer $ & fresh talk of a stimulus deal supporting prices for the metal.  Bullion's advance, however, remains threatened by increased appetite for risk as markets react to promising developments in Pres Trump's recovery from COVID-19.  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that progress was being made on coronavirus relief legislation.  Gold for Dec rose $12 (0.7%) to settle at $1920 an ounce, after posting a 2.2% weekly gain to close out Fri's run.  Equity markets rose, a snapback from the softness seen on Fri & eroding some enthusiasm for precious metals on the session.  Uncertainty about the 2020 election, after Trump said he contracted the deadly disease, rattled markets on Fri.  But more clarity has been provided about the his improved condition, after he was hospitalized over the weekend, which undercut some demand for bullion. 

Gold prices end at 2-week high on dollar weakness, fresh stimulus talk

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin spoke for about an hour today but emerged from a phone call with no coronavirus stimulus deal.  The pair expects to talk again tomorrow as the White House & Dem leaders try to craft an elusive 5th pandemic relief package, Pelosi's spokesman Drew Hammill said.  Pelosi & Mnuchin plan to exchange more details about their proposals today, he added.  The sides have made a final push in recent days to strike an aid agreement & pass legislation before the election.  While Pelosi & Mnuchin seem to have made progress toward a deal, they had a range of outstanding disagreements heading into the weekend.

Pelosi, Mnuchin speak for an hour but don’t reach a coronavirus stimulus deal

Pres Trump said that he will be leaving Walter Medical Center at 6:30PM ET today, just 3 days after he entered the hospital to be treated for the coronavirus.  Trump, in a tweet, said he is “feeling really good,”  told his nearly 87M followers, “Don’t be afraid of Covid.”  Nearly 210K people have died from Covid-19 in the US.  Minutes before announcing his imminent departure, Trump defended his decision yesterday to make a drive-by appearance in front of a group of his supporters outside the hospital.

Trump says he will leave Walter Reed hospital on Monday: 'Don't be afraid of Covid'

Sales of F-Series pickups & SUVs helped Ford (F) outperform its Detroit crosstown rivals as well as the broader auto industry in Q3.  While vehicle sales fell by just 4.9% from the same time last year, the drop was about ½ that of the broader industry & smaller than the sales declines felt by General Motors (GM) & Fiat Chrysler (FCAU).  Such declines typically aren't cause for celebration, but this year is anything but typical.  New vehicle sales have recovered far faster than many expected from Q2 when the coronavirus pandemic caused plant shutdowns & shuttered dealerships, sending sales down more than 30% compared to 2019.  “The industry had a very sharp recovery from Q2 to Q3,” Mark LaNeve, Ford VP of US marketing, sales & service, said.  “It’s been a crazy year but the industry has been resilient and our dealers have done a great job.”  Q3 sales were up 27% relative to the previous 3 months.  It also reported its best Q3 sales of pickups since 2005.  Consumer sales helped drive the recovery, while Ford's fleet sales to businesses also started showing signs of a recovery in Q3.  Ford is “cautiously optimistic” regarding vehicle sales in the fourth quarter, according to LaNeve.  “We’re carrying really good momentum into Q4,” he said.  “Obviously, nobody really knows what twist and turns could come from a pandemic environment or the election, but certainly Q3 exceeded expectations and we’re looking forward to Q4.”  Ford's sales thru Q3 were down 17.5% from the same time in 2019.  GM's sales during that time were down 17.4%, while Fiat Chrysler was down about 20%.  The stock rose 13¢.
If you would like to learn more about Ford, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/F?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7 

Ford’s Q3 vehicle sales outperform industry as demand recovers from coronavirus lockdowns 

Oil futures rose, with US prices marking their first gain in 3 sessions as traders monitored developments tied to Pres Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis & an oil workers' strike that's expected to cut production in Norway.  Nov West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.17 (5.9%) to settle at $39.22 a barrel.

U.S. oil futures finish higher for the first time in 3 sessions

Trump's return to the White House raises the chances that a fiscal stimulus deal will get done before the election.  It's not a done deal, but investors are hoping & the Dow rose an additional 150 after the announcement was made.  His return to the White House also brought some degree of calm to the stock market.  Later this week Q3 earnings will begin, starting from the big banks which will set a general tone for what to expect from the corps.  Currently the housing market is very strong & autos are doing reasonably well.  Recent forecasts for US auto sales are about 13M, down from 17M in the good old days.  However service business (travel, hotels, cleaners, barber shops, etc.) are still battling  headwinds.

Dow Jones Industrials







Markets rise as Trump's recovery and stimulus talks show progress

Dow shot up 387, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ jumped 197.  The MLP index went up 1+ to the 111s & the REIT index slid back 1+ ot the 358s.  Junk bond funds rose along with stocks & Treasuries declined in price.  Oil soared 2+ to the 39s & gold gained 19 to 1919.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
 
stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil39.04
+1.99+5.37%







GC=FGold1,919.20
+11.60+0.6%






 




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Pres Trump & the team of doctors treating him for the coronavirus will decide later whether to discharge him from Walter Reed Medical Center.  Trump's possible departure could send a signal that his health is improving following his diagnosis.  “The discharge decision will be made later today between the president and his medical team,” White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said.  Trump had entered the hospital just on Fri evening, the same day he revealed that he & first lady Melania had tested positive for Covid-19.  The pres has been mostly sequestered in Walter Reed's presidential wing since departing the White House, but has spoken out in tweets & in videos posted to his social media.  Yesterday, Trump also made a surprise drive-by appearance outside the hospital, where he waved from the backseat window of an SUV to his supporters who had gathered there.

Trump and medical team will decide later Monday whether he’s discharged, chief of staff says

The huge service side of the US economy — retailers, restaurants, banks, hospitals & the like — expanded in Sep for the 4th month in a row & employment also grew for the first time since the pandemic began, a survey business execs showed.  An index of non-manufacturing companies rose to 57.8% last month from 56.9% in August, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).  Any number above 50% means more companies are expanding.  The ISM survey of senior execs asks if business has gotten better or worse compared to the prior month, but it doesn't reveal how much better.  As the result, the relatively high level of the index overstates how well the service part of the economy is performing.  While many companies have fully reopened & are getting back up to speed, others like restaurants & airlines continue to operate under gov restrictions or have suffered a deep decline in customer traffic that won't be quickly reversed.  New orders and production both grew a bit faster in Sep.  The index of new orders dropped rose to 61.5% from 56.8%.  And the gauge for production edged up to 63% from 62.4%.  The best news was employment turning positive for the first time since Feb.  The employment gauge climbed to 51.8% from 47.9%, suggesting companies are adding more workers than they are letting go.  Service-oriented businesses cut Ms of jobs earlier in the pandemic & employment remains well below precrisis levels, however.  The best news was employment turning positive for the first time since Feb. 

U.S. service economy grows again in September, ISM finds, and employment turns positive for first time in 7 months

The global tally for confirmed cases of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 climbed to 35.2M today, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University, while the death toll rose to 1.04M.  The US has the highest case tally at 7.4M & highest death toll at 210M.  Brazil has the 2nd-highest death toll after the US at 146K, but 3rd-highest case tally at 4.9M.  India is 2nd case tally at 6.6M, & has the 3rd-highest death toll at 103K.  Mexico is 4th with 79K deaths & 9th with 762K cases.  The UK has 42K deaths & 506K cases, the highest death toll in Europe & 5th-highest in the world.

Global cases of COVID-19 top 35 million, 1.04 million deaths and U.S. nears 210,000 fatalities

Investors are encouraged by improvement in Trump's health & the service sector data.  They are still hoping for another stimulus bill.  However, it will still take a Herculean effort to get those guys in DC to agree to anything this big.

Dow Jones Industrials







Friday, October 2, 2020

Markets are unsettled after Trump's Covid test and economic data

Dow fell 134, advancers over decliners about 3-2 & NAZ dropped a very big 251  The MLP index added 1+ to the 108s & the REIT index jumped 5+ to the 359s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were sold.  Oil lost 1+, falling to the high 36s, & gold slid back 6 to 1909 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said today that Pres Trump is experiencing “mild symptoms” of COVID-19 after the pres & first lady Melania Trump tested positive for the novel coronavirus.  “As all of you know the president and the first lady tested positive for COVID-19,” Meadows told reporters at the White House.  “They remain in good spirits.”  “The president does have mild symptoms, and as we look to try to make sure that not only his health and safety and welfare is good, we continue to look at that for all of the American people,” Meadows continued.  Meadows said that the pres “continues, not only to be in good spirits, but very energetic.”  Meadows, though, did not elaborate on the types of symptoms the pres was experiencing, or any potential treatments that his medical team was reviewing.  Meadows also did not share whether the first lady was experiencing symptoms.  Meadows said that he spoke to the pres “a number of times” Fri morning & that he received “the normal five or six things he tells me to do every morning.”  “He is certainly wanting to make sure that we stay engaged,” Meadows said, adding that “it is critically important” for the doctors “to continue to monitor his health and the health of the first lady.”  “They’ll be glad to provide some updates later today as we look at this,” Meadows said, adding that the White House has “a number of contingency plans in place for this.”  The chief of staff went on to tout the president for “staying committed to working very hard on behalf of the American people.”  “His first question to me this morning was, ‘How is the economy doing?’ ‘How are stimulus talks going on Capitol Hill?’” Meadows continued.  Meadows added: “He is going to remain on the job and I am optimistic he will have a very speedy recovery.”  Meanwhile, Meadows said that the White House thought it was “important” to share the news of the Trump's positive COVID-19 test as soon as possible.  “In the early hours of the morning, the minute we got a confirmatory test on the president, we felt it was important to get the news out there at that time,” Meadows said.  “That’s why we sent out the tweet early this morning."  The pres, just before 1 AM, tweeted: “Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately.”  He added: “We will get through this TOGETHER!”  Meanwhile, his physician, Dr Sean P. Conley, confirmed Trump & the first lady's positive COVID-19 tests.  “This evening I received confirmation that both President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump have tested positive for the SARS-coV-2- virus,” Conley said.  “The President and First Lady are both well at this time, and they plan to remain at home within the White House during their convalescence.”  “The White House medical team and I will maintain a vigilant watch, and I appreciate the support provided by some of our country’s greatest medical professionals and institutions,” he continued.  He added: “Rest assured I expected the President to continue carrying out his duties without disruption while recovering, and I will keep you updated on any future developments.”

White House chief of staff details conversation with Trump this morning

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that Pres Trump's coronavirus diagnosis could change the shape of talks toward an evasive stimulus deal.  “This kind of changes the dynamic because here [Republicans] see the reality of what we have been saying all along. This is a vicious virus,” she said, adding that she would pray for Trump's safety.  The House took its last votes of the week today before a planned Oct recess.  Lawmakers could return to pass Covid-19 aid legislation & would get 24 hours of notice before a vote.  During a monthslong tug of war over how much money to inject into pandemic relief, Pelosi has repeatedly argued the GOP does not understand the gravity of the COVID-19 outb.  While she & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin are hundreds of Bs of $s apart on a price tag during last-ditch talks toward an aid agreement, Pelosi said she is “optimistic” about striking a deal.  “We always have to find a path, that is our responsibility to do so, and I believe that we will,” she said.  Pelosi added: “We’ll find our middle ground. We’re legislators. We’ll get the job done.”  Despite the impasse, Pelosi took a significant step today in saying the House could pass a standalone bill to send airlines aid money to help cover payroll.  She said the chamber could also include funds to prevent tens of thousands of looming furloughs as part of the bipartisan plan she hopes to craft with Mnuchin.  Airlines have asked for $25B to cover employee pay as the travel industry suffers.

Trump Covid-19 diagnosis changes dynamic of stimulus talks, Pelosi says

Pfizer (PFE) said CEO Albert Bourla told employees that development for its COVID-19 vaccine would move "at the speed of science" rather than due to political pressure.  PFE & BioNTech (BNTX) have an experimental coronavirus vaccine that is currently in Phase 3 trials.  There are 3 other vaccine candidates in late-stage trials in the US.  However, Pres Trump has repeatedly said that a vaccine may be ready by Nov.  The stock was unchanged.
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PFE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Pfizer CEO reportedly tells employees COVID-19 vaccine will move only at ‘speed of science’ and not in service of politics

Gold futures ended lower even though Pres Trump & his wife announced they had contracted the COVID-19 disease & would be quarantining in the White House for days.  The unexpected news comes as the race for the US presidency is heating up.  Dec gold fell $8 (0.5%) to settle at $1907 an ounce, after gaining 1.1% yesterday to finish near a 2-week peak.  For the week, gold saw a weekly gain of 2.2%.   Gold prices fell early today in the immediate wake of US employment data that revealed 661K new jobs in Sep, but hiring was the smallest since businesses reopened from lockdowns imposed to combat the pandemic.  The precious metal then briefly pared some losses shortly after data showed US factory orders rose 0.7% in Aug, up for a 4th straight month, but the increase was below the 0.9% rise expected.

Gold ends lower as markets assess Trump coronavirus news

Oil futures declined, contributing to a 2nd weekly loss for prices as Pres Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis raised further concerns over a slowdown in the economy & energy demand.  Nov West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.67 (4.3%) to settle at $37.05 a barrel.  Front-month contract prices lost roughly 8% for the week

Oil futures post a second weekly loss

With the news about Trump's diagnosis, stocks were sold in the AM.  However the Dow steadied during midday & later buyers were able to keep it around break breakeven while selling continued for NAZ & its tech shares.  Into the close there was more selling.  Over the weekend there will be a lot of analysis on the stock market & where it is going.  More attention will be paid to the economic recovery for the US & the fight against the virus which is stumbling along.

Dow Jones Industrials