Dow rose 97 to a new reocrd, advancers were modestly ahead of decliners & NAZ was off 51 after late day selling. The MLP index rose 2 to the 179s & the REIT index sank 7+ to 421. Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries edged higher. Oil s;id lower in the 54s after recent strength & gold went up 8 to 1764 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Covid-19 cases will likely surge again in the US as the highly contagious B.1.1.7 variant takes hold across the country, peaking in May before sharply declining by Jul, according to new data released from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC). The rise in Covid cases is expected as states relax pandemic prevention strategies for businesses, large-scale gatherings & schools, & the B.1.1.7 variant, first identified in the UK, spreads more rapidly throughout the country, the CDC said. The agency projected the trajectory of the pandemic based on 4 different scenarios of vaccination rates & state reopenings. While the case numbers differed in each scenario, the general direction of the outbreak remained mostly the same in all four forecasts with cases surging in May before falling in Jul. While Covid cases are expected to increase this month, hospitalizations & deaths will likely remain low nationally, the agency said, with cases expected to plummet by Jul as more Americans get vaccinated against the virus. High vaccination coverage and compliance with pandemic safety measures “are essential to control COVID-19 and prevent surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months,” federal health officials wrote. During a press briefing, CDC Director Dr Rochelle Walensky said the projections should remind Americans “we have a path out of this.” “Although we are seeing progress in terms of decreased cases, hospitalizations & death, variants are a wild card that could reverse this progress we have made,” she added. “We are seeing that our current vaccines are protecting against the contaminant variants circulating in the country. Simply put, the sooner we get more and more people vaccinated, the sooner we will all get back to normal.” The rate of daily new infections fell below 50K per day over the weekend & continues to decline, according to Johns Hopkins University, as the latest 7-day average stands at 48K cases per day.
CDC projects a surge in U.S. Covid cases through May before a ‘sharp decline’
The Great White Way finally has an official reopening date — Sep 14. New York Gov Andrew Cuomo said that Broadway theaters would reopen just after Labor Day at full capacity & tickets are expected to go on sale tomorrow. The governor did not specify which shows will be operating on this timeline. Individual productions may require more time to hire or rehire actors, crew & other in-house employees as well as conduct rehearsals. The timeline also depends on the state gov's approval of each theaters' health & safety protocols. The announcement as Mayor Bill de Blasio seeks to have New York City full reopened starting Jul 1. The delayed Broadway reopening is partially due to the time theaters' need to restart production and the fact that tourists account for 65% of annual live theater ticket sales in the city. Still, pent-up demand from locals could fuel sales of tickets in the interim. Broadway has been shuttered for more than a year due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, crippling the local economy. In a traditional year, the theater industry in New York funds nearly 100K jobs & pumps nearly $15B into the local economy.
Broadway to reopen at full capacity in New York City on Sept. 14
People who have had Covid-19 & later got vaccinated may have more protection against highly contagious variants, White House chief medical officer Dr Anthony Fauci said. Fauci cited a study published in late Apr that found that after one dose of the 2 dose of the Pfizer (PFE) vaccine, people with prior coronavirus infections had better immune responses against B.1.1.7 & B.1.351, the variants first identified in the UK & South Africa, compared with those who hadn't had Covid. He cited an additional study, which was published online & not yet peer-reviewed, that found people with prior infections who were later boosted with 2 doses of an mRNA vaccine had “increased protection” protection against variants. The studies provide more evidence on the benefits of getting vaccinated, Fauci added. “Vaccines are highly efficacious,” Fauci said. “They are better than the response you get from natural infection.” His comments come amid the Biden administration’s push to get 70% of adults partially vaccinated & 160M adults fully vaccinated by the Fourth of July, a date the administration hopes will be a turning point in the pandemic. In recent weeks, the pace of individuals receiving their first vaccine doses has fallen, though health officials say they are working to improve access to the shots as well as encourage more hesitant Americans to get vaccinated.
Fauci: Vaccinated people who had Covid may have more protection against variants
Gold prices ended higher, a day after the commodity finished lower on the back of comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen which were viewed as bearish for precious metals. Yellen initially suggested in an interview published yesterday that the Fed may need to raise interest rates to rise to keep the economy from overheating. However, the Treasury boss later clarified her remarks, saying that she was neither predicting nor recommending that the Fed raise rates. She also said that she didn't anticipate inflation being a sustained problem for the economy as it bounces back from COVID. Jun gold rose $8 (0.5%) to settle at $1784 an ounce, following a 0.9% decline yesterday, a fall that yanked the commodity down from its highest settlement for a most-active contract since Apr 21. Gold futures trade more than 6% lower year to date.
Gold ends higher after Yellen walks back talk of interest-rate hike
Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren dismissed talk of scaling back asset purchases as premature & said temporary factors pushing up inflation this spring won’t last. “My view is that this acceleration in the rate of price increases is likely to prove temporary,” Rosengren said. “Toilet paper and Clorox were in short supply at the outset of the pandemic, but manufacturers eventually increased supply, and those items are no longer scarce. Many of the factors raising prices this spring are also likely to be similarly short-lived,” Rosengren added. He cautioned that it is too soon to know whether trend inflation will rise as the economy strongly recovers in 2022 but the most likely outcome is inflation trending close to the Fed's 2% long-run target. Economists are divided on the question of what the trend rate of inflation will be the 2022, with some seeing inflation above the Fed's 2% target, even though the consensus is 2%. Rosengren said he would be watching the data carefully & said inflation could be stronger than expected. He is watching the employment cost index to see if wages move higher. That would be a warning sign that the price increases he expects to be temporary might be higher than anticipated.
Fed’s Rosengren says higher inflation will be as temporary as last year’s toilet-paper shortage
US oil futures ended lower but the global benchmark prices finished slightly higher in a mixed day of trading for oil contracts. Traders reconsidered the outlook for oil demand, despite US data showing the biggest weekly drop in domestic crude supplies since Jan. West Texas Intermediate crude for Jun, the US benchmark, fell 6¢ to settle at $65.63 a barrel after prices traded as high as $66.76, the highest front-month intraday level since Mar. Jul Brent, meanwhile, added 8¢ at $68.96 a barrel, following a climb to as high as $69.95. Oil prices saw gains early on expectations that an economic recovery in the US & Europe would lead to higher demand for oil. A US gov report also revealed a hefty weekly decline in US crude inventories, but WTI prices turned lower ahead of the trading settlements. Several US states have scrapped or plan to ease lockdown restrictions in coming weeks as COVID infection rates decline. Improved vaccine rollouts and easing restrictions on travel have also contributed to optimism over European fuel demand.
U.S. oil prices finish lower as traders reconsider demand prospects
The Dow reached a new record, however it took almost 3 weeks to make that achievement. Earnings season is not going well. The news about Broadway reopening is a strong positive, but the virus has not given up. Daily cases in the US can not decline much below 50K & deaths continue near 700. Those are still troubling numbers even though they show progress in the fight against the virus.
Dow Jones Industrials
