Dow rose 150, advancers over decliners about 3-1 & NAZ gained 162 following recent weakness. The MLP index crawled higher to the 181s & the REIT index climbed 3+ to the 427s. Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries saw limited interest. Oil slid lower in the 64s & gold added 16 to1832.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
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An expected US hiring boom crashed into a wall in Apr, with
employers adding a measly 266K new jobs – sharply missing expectations – amid a growing shortage of available workers. The
unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.1% — while it's still well
below the Apr 2020 peak of 14.7%, it's about twice the pre-crisis
level, the Labor Dept said in its monthly payroll report. The forecast expected to
show that unemployment fell to 5.8% & the economy added 978K jobs. The figure marks a significant drop from Mar's downwardly revised number of 770K & Feb's upwardly revised 536K. There are still 8.2M fewer jobs than there were last Feb, before the crisis began. Although the accelerated vaccine rate, Ts in gov stimulus & easing business restrictions seemed to be coming together to support
a robust economic recovery, businesses have reported difficulty in
onboarding new workers.
US hiring sharply misses expectations in April with just 266,000 new jobs added
Less than ½ of Americans are confident in the safety of the Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Covid-19 vaccine after it was temporarily halted in the US following reports of rare blood clotting issue in some recipients, according to a new survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation. While most people are confident in Covid vaccines, in general, just 46% of survey respondents said they were at least somewhat confident in the JNJ shot, compared with 69% who said the same for both the Pfizer (PFE) & Moderna (MRNA) vaccines. Kaiser surveyed 2097 randomly selected adults ages 18 & older from Apr 15-29 for the study. The Food & Drug Administration & Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) on Apr 13 asked states to temporarily halt using JNJ's vaccine “out of an abundance of caution” following reports of rare blood clots in 6 women. A CDC panel recommended the US resume using the vaccine 10 days later, saying the benefits outweigh the risks. The JNJ news appears to have changed some minds about getting a shot. One in 5 unvaccinated respondents said the news changed their mind about getting the vaccine in some way, though the specific reactions varied, with 7% saying it made them less likely to want any of the 3 Covid vaccines. Another 9% said it made them less likely to want the JNJ vaccine but that it didn't change their minds about the PFE or MRNA shots. Nevertheless, the share of respondents who say they have received a shot increased significantly from last month's survey, jumping from 32% to 56%. That figure mirrors data from the CDC, which reports that about the same share of US adults have received one dose or more.
Confidence in the safety of the J&J vaccine is low following U.S. pause, survey
It is tough to be a homebuyer today. The supply of homes for sale is at a record low, homebuilders are slow to step up, & prices are rising at the fastest pace in nearly 2 decades. No wonder sentiment among homebuyers fell to the lowest level in the 10-year history of Fannie Mae's monthly Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI). The percentage of respondents who said it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 53% to 47%, while the percentage who said it is a bad time to buy increased from 40% to 48%. Respondents to the survey largely cited high prices & tight supply as the chief reasons for their pessimism, according to Doug Duncan, senior VP &chief economist at Fannie Mae. “The decrease in homebuying sentiment likely indicates that some consumers, potentially flush with savings – perhaps boosted in part by stimulus payments – may be attempting, but failing, to buy a home due to heightened competition for relatively few listed homes,” Duncan said. Consumers with incomes $50K-$100K were particularly pessimistic. This is because the shortage of homes for sale is most acute on the lower end of the market, so affordable housing is increasingly difficult to find. The median household income in the US was nearly $69K in 2019. Competition for housing does not appear to be letting up at all. In fact, competition is hitting record levels. It took an average of 19 days to sell a home during the 4-week period ending May 2, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage. That's the fastest since they began tracking that metric in 2012, & down from an average of 35 days during the same period one year ago. About 45% of homes for sale went under contract in under a week. In another record, 48% of homes sold for more than their list price, up 20 percentage points from the same period a year earlier. Home prices are up over 11% from a year ago, due to high competition that is resulting in bidding wars. Low mortgage rates are no longer helping much, because they helped to fuel those high prices. Prices are also rising for new construction, as builder costs are soaring.
Homebuyers are the most pessimistic they’ve been in a decade
The big miss on the jobs data did not keep buyers away. The Dow is advancing to a new record & traders have their eyes on reaching the 35K level. The chart below shows it was at 31K 2 months ago.
Dow Jones Industrials
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