Wednesday, February 2, 2022

Markets mixed after private payroll data disappoints

Dow fell 10, decliners modestly ahead of advancers & NAZ was off 4.  The MLP index slid back to the 201s & the REIT index gained 5+ to the 472s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were being purchased.  Oil was steady in the 88s & gold went up 7 to 1809.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil87.92
-0.28-0.3%






















GC=FGold   
1,805.70
+4.20+0.2%















 

 




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US companies unexpectedly cut jobs in Jan for the first time in a year, as a surge in the highly contagious omicron coronavirus variant battered the labor market's recovery from the pandemic, according to the ADP National Employment Report.  Companies shed 301K jobs last month, sharply missing the 207K-job gain that was predicted & a major drop from the downwardly revised gain of 776K in Dec.  It marked the first time that ADP reported negative growth since Dec 2020, when companies shed 123K jobs before the vaccines were available.  "The labor market recovery took a step back at the start of 2022 due to the effect of the omicron variant and its significant, though likely temporary, impact to job growth," Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist, said.  The job losses were concentrated heavily in the leisure & hospitality industry, one of the sectors hit hardest by the pandemic.  The industry shed 154K jobs in Dec as consumers opted to stay home to avoid the new variant.  Beyond that, losses were broad-based:  Trade, transportation & utilities eliminated 62K positions, while education & health services fell by 15K & construction shed 10K.  Manufacturing also reported losing 21K jobs last month.  In all, service-providing industries accounted for 274K of the job losses, with goods producers dropping by 27K.

US companies unexpectedly slash jobs as omicron surge batters economy

A group of some of the world's most powerful oil producers agreed to a further planned increase in output, even as crude prices trade near record levels amid geopolitical tensions.  OPEC+, swiftly decided to green-light the return of 400K barrels per day for Mar.  The move, widely expected, marks a continuation of the group's strategy to gradually reopen the taps.  Led by OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia & non-OPEC leader Russia, the energy alliance is in the process of unwinding record supply cuts of roughly 10M barrels per day.  The historic production cut was put in place in Apr 2020 to help the energy market recover after the coronavirus pandemic cratered demand for crude.  OPEC+ has faced pressure from top consumers such as the US & India to pump more to reduce prices & aid the economic recovery.  The group has resisted calls for speedier increases despite higher oil prices.  Intl benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $90.29 a barrel today, around 1.3% higher for the session & hovering slightly below the seven-year high of $91.70 reached last week.  US West Texas Intermediate futures, meanwhile, stood at $89.60, up around 1.6%.  OPEC alone accounts for around 40% of the world's oil supply.

OPEC+ agrees on March output rise amid oil price rally, defying U.S. pressure

General Motors (GM) increased its net income 56% last year, helped by higher prices for its vehicles that were made scarce by a global shortage of computer chips.  The automaker said that it made $10B for the full year & predicted record pretax earnings in 2022 of $13-15B & net income of $9.4-10.8B.  Excluding one-time items, EPS was $7.07 for the year, beating the estimate of $6.83.  Full year revenue of $127B fell short of estimates of $128.7B.  In Q4, GM made $1.7B net profit.  GM's sales in the US, its most profitable market, fell 13% for the year, & it was unseated by Toyota (TM) as the nation's top-selling automaker for the first time.  The company lost almost 3 percentage points of market share, which fell to 14.6%.  But GM's average vehicle sales price rose 20% in Q4 from a year ago to nearly $54K as it sold more loaded-out trucks & SUVs, according to Edmunds.com.  Nearly all automakers have been forced to cut production due to the global semiconductor shortage, leaving few new vehicles on dealer lots.  CEO Mary Barra said reporters that she expects production to improve thru the year as the chip shortage eases.  She said the company plans to invest more money in electric vehicles & upgrading factories to prepare for more battery powered vehicles.  GM will accelerate $35B worth of investments previously planned thru 2025.  She added the company will consider reinstating its div, but won't at this time because its priority is to accelerate its electric-vehicle growth plan.  Adjusted EPS was $3.59 in Q4, beating estimates of $3.10.  The stock fell 2.12 (4%) on the news.
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GM_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f

Record sales prices drive GM profit up 56% to $10B last year

Markets keep drifting sideways looking for direction.  Meanwhile demand for oil is very strong as OPEC sticks to its plan for modest production increases.  Also, a few of the marginal members (such as Libya) have trouble filling their quotas due to internal strife.  As usual, the jobs report on Fri will be big, although it may be be short of robust.

Dow Jones Industrials

 

Tuesday, February 1, 2022

Markets crawl higher after new economic data

Dow edged up 22, advancers over decliners better than 3-2 & NAZ inched up 2.  The MLP index went up 3+ to 200 & the REIT index slid back 2+ to the 467s.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries were sold.  Oil was slightly higher in the 88s & gold gained 9 to 1805.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil  87.86


-0.29-0.3%














GC=FGold   1,800.30
  +3.90+0.2%



































 

 




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Americans continued to quit their jobs in droves in Dec, underscoring how persistent turmoil in the labor market has made it difficult for employers to fill open positions.  The Labor Dept said that 4.3M Americans, about 3% of the workforce, quit their jobs in Dec.  That's down from a fresh high of 4.5M in Nov, but is well above the pre-pandemic level of about 3.6M.  Meanwhile, the number of job openings rose to 10.9M by the end of Dec.

Job openings stay elevated as Americans keep quitting

Exxon Mobil (XOM), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, profit jumped more than 80% year over year during Q4 amid a rebound in oil & gas prices, the company said.  With XOM in a stronger financial position, it will begin to buy back stock during the first qtr.  EPS rose to $2.05 excluding items, ahead of the $1.93 that was expected.  Revenue came in at $85B, which was short of the $91.8B expected.  In the same qtr one year ago EPS was 3¢ excluding items on sales of $46.5B.  During Q3-021 the EPS was $1.58 on an adjusted basis, on sales of $73.8B.  In the latest qtr XOM generated $48B of cash flow from operating activities, which was the highest since 2012.  The company also paid down an additional $9B in debt during Q4, reducing debt by $20B over the course of full-year 2021.  The debt level is now back to pre-pandemic levels.  “Our new streamlined business structure is another example of the actions we are taking to further strengthen our competitive advantages and grow shareholder value,” CEO Darren Woods said.  “We’ve made great progress in 2021 and our forward plans position us to lead in cash flow and earnings growth, operating performance, and the energy transition.”  For 2022, XOM expects to spend $21-24B.  The stock rose 4.98 (7%).
If you would like to learn more about XOM click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/XOM_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f 

Exxon Mobil’s fourth-quarter profit tops estimates as oil and gas prices soar; shares rise

Treasury yields moved higher as investors weighed new data about inflation & the economy.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 2 basis points to 1.807% & the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 4 basis points to 2.136%.  Yields move inversely to prices & 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.  The move in yields comes after the ISM Manufacturing purchases managers index for Jan showed slight growth & higher prices paid.  The ISM Prices Index rose 7.9 percentage points to 76.1%.  The Federal Reserve has previously indicated that it would monitor the recovery in the labor market to help inform its plans for tightening monetary policy.  The Fed signaled last week that it could start raising interest rates in Mar to combat higher inflation.

10-year Treasury yield tops 1.8% as manufacturing data shows rising prices

The new month is starting quietly with very little excitement in the the stock market.  Even oil is just digesting its recent gains.  More monthly data will be coming shortly.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






Markets rise after Fed official sees unemployment rate falling below 3%

Dow climbed 273 thanks to late day buying, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ went up 106.  The MLP index rose 5+ to the 202s & the REIT index was off 1+ to the 468s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries continued weak.  Oil was little changed in the low 88s & gold went up 3 to 1800 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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The daily death toll from Covid rose to an average of more than 2400 fatalities over the previous seven days as of yesterday, up 39% over the past 2 weeks & the highest level in about a year, according to Johns Hopkins University.  Jennifer Nuzzo, head of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins Covid Resource Center, said Covid deaths may rise even more because states with lower vaccination rates got hit later by omicron & haven't experienced the full brunt of the variant yet.  She said it’s a tragedy that people are still dying when vaccines are available that protect against severe illness.  “Any time we have deaths after the development of a vaccine — that largely takes off the table the possibility of death — is a tragedy,” Nuzzo added.  “There’s no way around that this is a bad development for the pandemic.”  Vaccines weren’t widely available the last time Covid deaths were this high in America.  Pfizer (PFE) & Moderna's (MRNA) shots didn't get emergency approval until Dec 2020, followed by Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) about 3 months later.  Just 28 M Covid shots had been administered by this time last year with 4.7M people getting a 2nd dose.  Almost 250M Americans have received at least one shot & more than 88M of them have received both primary doses & been boosted.  As infections have soared lately, the vaccines have at least prevented serious illness & death from surging at the same rate; still, with ¼ of Americans yet to get a single shot, many remain susceptible.  Reported Covid deaths generally lag rises in cases.  States that have not yet peaked in infections will likely do so within the next 2 weeks, with peak deaths following about 2 weeks later, said Dr Scott Braithwaite, professor of population health & medicine for NYU Langone Health.  Some parts of the country are seeing encouraging signs & cases & hospitalizations are easing nationwide.  Hopkins data shows that US cases surged to a pandemic high of close to 1M new infections a day in mid-Jan.  The country is now reporting a 7-day average of about 450K new cases per day, down 36% over the past 2 weeks.  The roughly 140K patients currently in US hospitals with Covid is also down from the recent peak of 159K on Jan 20, according to a 7-day average of Dept of Health & Human Services data.

U.S. Covid fatalities reach highest level in a year as omicron cases ease

Ukraine's ambassador to the UN said that Kyiv still hopes for a diplomatic resolution with Russia even as Moscow sends more troops & weapons to its border.  “If Russia has any questions to Ukraine, it is better to meet and talk, not to bring troops to the Ukrainian borders and intimidate Ukrainian people,” said Ukrainian Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya at a United Nations Security Council meeting.  The Ukrainian diplomat is not a member of the council but was invited to participate as the crisis escalates at his country's border.  He pushed back on Russian claims that Kyiv was prepared to mount an attack.  “Ukraine is not going to launch a military offensive, neither in Donbass, nor Crimea nor anywhere else,” Kyslytsya said.  “The Kremlin must remember that Ukraine is ready to defend itself. At the same time we support the need to keep diplomatic channels with Russia open,” he added.  His remarks come as an estimated 100K troops equipped with advanced weaponry line Ukraine's eastern border with Russia & northern border with Belarus, a Moscow ally.  “It is in the interest of everyone to prevent the war or rather to prevent the renewal of an active phase of the military ongoing aggression,” Kyslytsya continued.  “Everyone will suffer, even if you are far away from Ukraine,” he said, referencing possible global economic repercussions from war.  The ambassadors from the US & Russia clashed at the intl forum, which did not yield any action or a joint statement from participants.

Ukraine calls for peaceful solution to Russian military buildup at U.N. meeting

United Parcel Service (UPS) posted record quarterly earnings & forecast 2022 revenue above expectations, driven by higher shipping rates & e-commerce demand.  Demand for express shipping has risen sharply during the Covid-19 pandemic, especially in business-to-consumer package deliveries, as the temporary closure of many traditional stores drove more shoppers online.  US retailers reported a better-than-expected $887B in sales during the crucial holiday season, a 14.1% rise from a year earlier.  UPS reported an 11.5% jump in revenue to $27.8B in the 3 months to Dec 31, with the average revenue per piece increasing by 11.3%.  The company also forecast revenue of about $102B in 2022, beating an estimate of $100B.  It also expects adjusted operating margins of 13.7% in 2022, above 2021 levels, despite rising labor & fuel costs roiling the industry.  The company also hiked its quarterly div by 49% to $1.52 per share.  Adjusted EPS was $3.59 in Q4, beating estimates of $3.10.  The stock jumped 28.34 (14%).
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/UPS_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f

UPS delivers rosy outlook for 2022 after record earnings, shares soar

US oil futures settled slightly higher, as traders await the outcome of tomorrow's meeting of major oil producers.  OPEC+ is expected to agree to a 400K barrel-per-day production increase for Mar.  When factoring in that many members are struggling to hit their quotas, oil seems poised to head higher.  Fears of disruption to supplies will remain elevated given the winter blast hitting the north & the geopolitical risks abroad.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Mar edged up by a nickel to settle at $88.20 a barrel.

U.S. oil futures settle modestly higher a day ahead of the OPEC+ meeting

Gold futures were higher for a 2nd session in a row, climbing above the significant $1800 an ounce level to start the month, as weakness in the $ helped foster some buying in bullion.  Yesterday, San Francisco Fed Pres Mary Daly said the central bank is not behind the curve & that upcoming rate hikes would be “gradual and not disruptive.”  Philadelphia Fed Pres Patrick Harker today said it would take another burst of inflation to justify an aggressive interest rate increase when the Fed starts to raise rates next month.  The threat of a 50 basis-point interest rate hike in Mar was downplayed by multiple Fed speakers.  Apr gold settled $6 higher to settle at $1802 an ounce, following a 0.6% gain a day ago, which helped to reduce a monthly decline to 1.8%, the biggest monthly fall since Sep.  Gold prices continued to trade higher after data today after the ISM manufacturing index fell to 57.6% in Jan from 58.8%.

Gold futures settle back above $1,800 for first time in nearly a week

St Louis Federal Reserve Bank Pres James Bullard said he sees the unemployment rate falling below 3% this year, a jobless rate the US economy last seen in the early 1950s.  "I think unemployment is going to go down below 3% this year," Bullard said today.  The unemployment rate could continue to drop this year from its current level of 3.9% as companies scrounge for workers & several factors, including early retirements, limit the size of the labor force, he added."  "I think the upcoming jobs report will probably be not very good because of Omicron, but don't be fooled," Bullard continued. "This is quite the strong economy here and a very strong labor market." 

Fed's Bullard: Unemployment rate can go below 3%

Trading was unexciting until the last hour when buyers returned to drive the Dow up 200.  Bullard's comments about the unemployment rate falling below 3% got a lot of attention by traders.  Demand for safe haven gold is good & oil is near 14 yar highs.

Dow Jones Industrials