Monday, June 28, 2010

Markets waffle on weak consumer spending

Stocks started soft but buyers are returning in the midday period. Dow is up 47, decliners barely ahead of advancers & NAZ is up 11. Banks were a little weak, the Financial Index is down only a fraction.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 196.53 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change -0.50 (-0.3%)



The Alerian MLP Index rose .67 to the 209s, another high since early May. Some think hedge fund & money managers are buying to put them in their portfolios at qtr end. The problem is, that money is fickle. The REIT index fell 1+ to the 198s. Junk bond funds were mixed to higher. The VIX, volatility index, was up 1 to the 29s. The biggest story which is still under reported is yields on Treasuries are falling to new lows (since they recovered from record lows in early 2009). The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell 6 basis points to 3.05%. It's a sad state of affairs when investors want to lock up money for 10- years at 3% instead of buying stocks!


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




VIX --- 2 weeks




10-Year Treasury Yld Index - 2 weeks





Oil fell on more concerns about slowing economies, especially in Europe. But gold is strong, Frightened money not buying into Treasuries is going into a gold which should be in more portfolios.

CLQ10.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 10...77.90 ...Down 0.96
.......(1.2%)

GCM10.CMX...Gold Jun 10...1,256.80 ...Up 0.40
.......(0.0%)



Gold Super Cycle Link!! Click Here



Americans spent more in May but not enough to speed along the economic recovery. Consumer spending rose 0.2% last month after no change in Apr according to the Commerce Dept. Incomes rose for the 6th time in 7 months, boosting household finances & potentially providing fuel for greater future spending. However, money spent on goods declined. The increase came from spending on services, much of that likely the result of Americans using more electricity as the weather warmed up. Incomes rose 0.4%. The savings rate, or the percentage of income that wasn't spent, bumped up to 4%. Wages & salaries rose 0.5% last month, paychecks gained from recent increases in the average work week as well as temporary census hiring. Consumers aren't driving the current recovery. Instead, it has depended more on business spending & exports.

Consumer Spending in U.S. Increased in May More Than Forecast


Rise in incomes - 1 year

One-Year Chart for MoM % Change (PITLCHNG:IND)



Over the weekend, G-20 leaders responded to the European debt crisis with deficit-reduction targets & also agreed to pursue higher capital requirements for banks once economic recoveries take hold. They hope to halve deficits by 2013 & start to stabilize debt-to-output ratios by 2016. But nations can move at their own pace as they fulfill existing stimulus plans. The US is pushing to focus on spurring growth, while the UK & Germany are already tightening spending to bolster investor confidence. The agreement still amounted to a compromise without any strength (the US continues to spend like a drunken sailor).

G-20 Responds to European Debt Crisis With Deficit-Cutting Goal



BP (BP) repurchased $37B of its stock between 2005-8. That stock investment is now down $22B, ugh! Now BP may be forced to sell some of that treasury stock to boost equity which is being depleted with enormous losses. Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) sold 1.7M iPhones in the US, Britain, France, Germany & Japan. BP is up a fraction near multi year lows while AAPL slipped a fraction the 266s near historic highs.

BP Loses $22 Billion in Legacy of Share Buybacks



BP --- 2 weeks




Apple --- 2 weeks





The death of Senator Byrd could put a crimp in the plans for passing more legislation. Financial regulation (bank overhaul) is almost ready for a vote, but now the future for that & other bills is less certain. The € is little changed at $1.23½ & money managers are concerned about its future, looking for more slipping & sliding. The G-20 meeting accomplished little other than pointing out the differences between the US & Europe in managing the recovery (if that's what it is). More lows in Treasury yields will bring selling to stock markets.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks







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Friday, June 25, 2010

Markets see saw while digesting financial regulation

Dow was hugging break even all day while the the breadth of the market has been stronger. There was a tiny bit of selling into the close. Dow finished down 9, but advancers were 5-2 ahead of decliners & NAZ was up 6. Banks stocks are up because they figure the financial regulation bill is not as bad as it could have been. Well, that's one way to look at it. As with all new legislation (which is NOT final), nobody really knows how it will play out.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value197.03One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change5.38 (2.8%)



MLPs have been surging all day with the Alerian MLP Index closing up 6 to the 308s (up 5 is a special day for the index). The Dow Jones REIT Index rose 5 to the 199s. Not to be outdone, junk bond funds were up 1-2%, big by their standards. Fears are clearly easing as the VIX fell 1 to 28¾ after topping 30 in the last couple of days. Treasuries also were a little higher as the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell 1 basis point to 3.11%, STILL AT A VERY LOW LEVEL!

Alerian MLP Index -- YTD




Dow Jones REIT Index -- YTD




VIX --- YTD




10-Year Treasury Yld Index -- YTD





The threat of a major storm coming to the Gulf brought buyers back to oil. The storm watch is on & especially important for the clean around the oil spill. Oil is heading for its yearly highs around 80. It will very bullish for oil if it can top that level. Gold is not getting as much attention as it deserves but the chart looks very pretty while it's flirting with record levels, few stocks can make that claim!


CLQ10.NYM..Crude Oil Aug 10..78.93 ..Up 2.42
......(3.2%)

GCM10.CMX..Gold Jun 10..1,255.10 ..Up 9.60
......(0.8%)


Gold Super Cycle!!! Click Here

52 Week High Friday Rule
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GLD --- YTD






The Coast Guard said BP (BP) plans next week to nearly double its capacity for siphoning oil gushing from its ruptured deep-sea well, but the threat of a storm raised fears that the effort could be disrupted for days or even weeks. BP said it has paid out $2.4B so far in clean-up & compensation costs for the ecological disaster caused by the worst oil spill in history. This does not include the $20B fund it has agreed to set up, nor the billions it will have to pay in fines (potentially $15B). BP said 2 relief wells that offer the best hope of plugging its well were on track to intercept their target at a depth of 18K feet & they are due to be completed in Aug. A long term chart for BP is shown & is getting ugly. The stock is back to where it was in 1996!


BP --- 3 decades






Stocks were stronger that the Dow suggested. But strength in the stock markets is going on while gold is hovering near record highs & Treasury yields are at very low & troublesome levels. That's called a disconnect. The announcement after the G-20 meeting over the weekend might have a major impact on trading Mon AM. A lack of agreement could be a setback for the markets.

Dow Jones Industrials -- YTD







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Stock markets sink as gold hits new records

Dow sank 61, advancers & decliners were about equal & NAZ dropped 6. But high yielders are doing well. Bank stocks are absorbing the news about the new financial regulation bill & the Financial Index is higher.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 193.79 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change 2.14 (1.1%)



This was a good day for high yielders. The Alerian MLP Index advanced 2¼ to the 304s & the REIT index rose 2½ to the 196s. Junk bond funds were higher. But the VIX, volatility index, also gained a fraction to 30.40. More worrisome is the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell 4 basis points to under 3.09% (not good for stocks) as it is heading for new 1+ year lows.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




VIX --- 2 weeks




10-Year Treasury Yld Index --- 2 weeks





Oil gained but the big news was that gold is at record levels and is looking to head higher.

CLQ10.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 10...77.23 ...Up 0.72
.......(0.9%)

GCM10.CMX...Gold Jun 10...1,255.20 ...Up 9.70
.......(0.8%)


Gold Super Cycle!! Click Here

52 Week High Friday Rule!
Click Here



Consumer sentiment rose in Jun to its highest since Jan 2008 while reports of job losses were down sharply from a year ago. The final Jun reading showed the index on consumer sentiment rose to 76 from 73.6 in May, above the median forecast of 75.5. Reports of job losses fell by half since last Jun, from 65% of respondents to 29%. The barometer of current economic conditions was 85.6 (again the highest since Jan 2008) & also above the 82.9 reading in early Jun. This compared with 81.0 in May. However, the index of consumer expectations rose more modestly to 69.8 from 68.8 in May.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Rose to 76


Consumer confidence - 1 year

One-Year Chart for Sentiment (CONSSENT:IND)


Economic conditions - 1 year

One-Year Chart for Current (CONSCURR:IND)


Consumer expectations -1 year

One-Year Chart for Expectations (CONSEXP:IND)



Lawmakers shook hands on the compromise legislation early this morning after administration officials helped broker a deal that cracked the last impediment to the financial regulation bill, a proposal to force banks to spin off their lucrative derivatives trading business. The legislation touches on an exhaustive range of financial transactions, from a debit card swipe at a supermarket to the most complex securities deals cut in downtown Manhattan. The president hopes the House & Senate will approve the compromise legislation by Jul 4. The bill would set up a warning system for financial risks, created a powerful consumer financial protection bureau to police lending, force large failing firms to liquidate & set new rules for financial instruments that have been largely unregulated. The bill may have little impact on banks but could hit consumers with more fees

Lawmakers Agree on Sweeping Wall Street Overhaul




This weekend there is another G-20 meeting, this time in Toronto. They have a lot to discuss. Chinese currency is a back-burner item now that China agreed to "flexibility" for its currency. The main disagreement is between Europe & the US. Europe, led by Germany & the UK, is pushing for austerity to strengthen then currency (the € is just above $1.23). But the US continues with its stimulus policies. It will be difficult to find agreement on this big difference which has major negative implications for the stock markets. 10 year ago S&P 500 was 1441, today it's only 1073! This has been one tough decade.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks




S&P 500 --- 1 decade








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Thursday, June 24, 2010

Markets tumble on increased worries about the economic recovery

Dow sank 145, decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ fell 36 making for another bad day. Banks were weak as the Financial Index looks to be headed back for the 186 lows.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX


Value191.65One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change-4.05 (-2.1%)



The MLP index did well, up ½ to the 302s while the REIT index dropped almost 5 to the 194s. Junk bonds were flattish to lower. Fears are rising as the VIX shot up 3 to 30, last seen 2 weeks ago. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond inched up a basis point to 3.12%, a 13 month low which is scary for investors in stocks. Oil was flat but gold jumped 7 to 1240 on global anxieties.

Alerian MLP Index -- 2 weeks






Problems seem to go from bad to worse. The € is $1.23¼ as worries escalate on Greek debts. It costs 10¢ on the $1 to insure their debt because of increased nervousness about default. The financial regulation bill could be announced as soon as tonight & there are plenty of anxieties about it. Bigger picture, there is a feeling that too many problems around the world are spinning out of control which explains the strength of Treasuries & gold.

Sorry about the shortened post. Blogger just lost what I wrote (very frustrating), so I had to recreate it very quickly.

Markets drop on weak economic data

Stocks fell at the start & are heading lower. The Dow is down 128 (only 170 above 10K), decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ is down 35. Glum figures for jobless claims & orders for durable goods are keeping buyers away in what is becoming a bad week for the markets. Bank stocks are also lower as the Financial Index may want to test its 186 lows.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 191.90 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change -3.80 (-1.9%)



The Alerian MLP Index was down 1 to the 301s, 300 has been a formidable ceiling all year. The REIT Index fell 4 to 195 & is having a very bad week. Junk bond funds are a little lower. But the VIX, volatility index, is up 1½ to the 28s. Most troublesome is the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell 2½ basis points to 3.09%. Investors are willing to accept only 3% for 10 years, a very bad sign for stocks!

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




VIX --- 2 weeks




10-Year Treasury Yld Index - 2 weeks





Oil & gold did little while stocks pulled back.

CLQ10.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 10...76.13 ...Down 0.22
.......(0.3%)

GCM10.CMX...Gold Jun 10...1,237.00 ...Up 2.90
.......(0.2%)


Gold Super Cycle!!
Click Here


Jobless claims fell by the largest number in 2 months last week, but remain above levels consistent with healthy job growth. Despite the drop of 19K, claims are at about the same level they were at the beginning of the year. The stubbornly high level of requests for jobless aid is a sign hiring remains weak even as the economy recovers. New jobless claims dropped to 457K, slightly below forecasts of 460K. First-time requests for unemployment insurance have been stuck at about 450K all year. New claims dropped steadily last year after reaching a peak of 651K in Mar. The 4-week average dipped slightly to 463K, the first drop in 6 weeks. The total number receiving benefits, meanwhile, dropped 45K to 4.5M. But that doesn't include about 5.3M who received extended benefits paid for by the federal gov in the week ended Jun 5.

Separately, the Commerce Dept said orders for big-ticket manufactured goods (durable goods) fell 1.1% last month as demand for commercial aircraft declined. But excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders rose 0.9%, suggesting the manufacturing sector remains a key driver of the economic recovery.

Jobless Claims Drop From Two-Month High

U.S. Durables Orders Indicate Manufacturing Boost to Recovery


Jobless claims - 1 year

One-Year Chart for Claims (INJCJC:IND)


Number receiving benefits - 1 year

One-Year Chart for Unemployment SA (INJCSP:IND)


Orders for durable goods - 1 year

One-Year Chart for Month % change (DGNOCHNG:IND)



Orders for durable goods
excl transportation - 1 year


One-Year Chart for Less Trans % (DGNOXTCH:IND)



Dow is down almost 300 this week. On light trading anything is possible, but this decline does not make the bulls happy. The € is little changed, just above $1.23. Chances are trading will slow further going into the weekend (with a negative bias).

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks








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