Monday, November 28, 2011

Markets rise on improved holiday sales and European debt hopes

Dow finished up 291, advancers 5-1 ahead of decliners & NAZ was gained 85.  The Financial Index rose 4+ to the 162s.   

The MLP index went up 5 to the 365s & the REIT index was up 3+ to the 211s.  Junk bond funds were mixed to lower (down from the AM posting)  & Treasuries inched up (higher in the PM trading).  Oil gained, pushing for 100, & gold had a small gain with its sights on $1700.

AMZ  Alerian MLP Index




DJR  Dow Jones Equity REIT Index




Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.010%

U.S. 2-year

0.254%

U.S. 10-year

1.962%

CLF12.NYM...Crude Oil Jan 12....97.80 ...Up 1.03  (1.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





European Central Bank President Mario Draghi

Mario Draghi, president of the ECB
Photo:   Bloomberg

Banks & ratings companies are sounding their loudest warnings yet that the euro area risks unraveling unless its guardians intensify efforts to beat the 2-year-old sovereign debt crisis.  Italy will seek to raise as much as €8.8B ($11.7B) in bond sales as European finance ministers prepare to meet this week.  The ECB needs to step up its crisis response.  Moody's said today the “rapid escalation” of the crisis threatens all of the region’s sovereign ratings.  Everybody remembers when the German gov failed to draw bids for 35% of 10-year bunds sold last week & the yield on its 30-year securities had the biggest weekly gain in 14 months.  Moody’s said that credit risks will keep rising without steps to stabilize markets in the short-term & questioned whether policy makers can move quickly enough. The OECD said its 34-nation economy will expand 1.6% next year, down from 2.8% predicted in May.  The leaders need magic tricks to solve these financial problems.

Banks Step Up Warnings on Euro Breakup


Consumer Spending

Photo:   Bloomberg

US household debt declined 0.6% in Q3 as mortgage balances shrank, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.  Consumer debt fell $60B from Q2 to $11.6T & mortgage balances declined by $114B, or 1.3%.  "Households continue to try and deleverage in the wake of a challenging economic environment and large declines in home values," Andrew Haughwout, VP in the Research & Statistics Group at the New York Fed, said.  "However, our findings also provide evidence that consumer credit demand continues to increase, a positive sign for consumer sentiment."  Consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the economy, grew at a 2.3% annual rate in Q3, the fastest pace of 2011, according to the Commerce Dept.  The savings rate fell, suggesting some consumers used savings to keep spending.  In Oct, consumer spending rose less than forecast as Americans used the largest gain in incomes in 7 months to rebuild savings.  Borrowings on home equity lines of credit increased by $14B, or 2.3%.  Consumer indebtedness excluding mortgages & home-equity lines rose 1.3% to $2.62T.

Fed Says Household Debt Continues to Fall


The borrowing rates for Italy skyrocketed at a bond auction today for the 2nd straight business day.  Pressure mounts on the eurozone's 3rd-largest economy to come up with quick reforms to keep the euro zone from breaking up.  Italy paid 7.2% (2.7 percentage points higher than the last similar auction) to get investors to lend for 12 years.  Italy raised €567M ($750M).  While there were enough bids to cover the maximum sought of €750M ($1B), the high borrowing rates persuaded the Italian Treasury to stick closer to the lower end of its planned range.  A bigger test will come tomorow, when Italy plans to auction up to €8B ($10.6B) in debt of 3 varying maturities, including the benchmark 10-year issues.  Last Fri, Italy had to pay sharply higher rates in auctions, stoking renewed fears that the country is heading toward a potentially devastating debt spiral.   The bond yields also reflect grim economic data that suggest Italy will be in a recession no later than Q1 of 2012.  The OECD just forecasted Italian growth a 0.7% of GDP in 2011, followed by a contraction of 0.5% next year, a sharp cut in previous forecasts of 1.1% growth in 2011 & 1.6% growth in 2012.  Earlier today, the IMF denied reports that it's readying a rescue fund for Italy.  Can you spell Greece?

Italy's borrowing rates skyrocket for 2nd day AP


Markets had a good day, but a lot of that may have been reacting to oversold conditions.  Last week the Dow dropped on all 4 days for a total loss of 560.  Buyers returned today.  European problems remain in place (contrary to unconfirmed reports about an IMF bailout).  Every bailout rumor from Europe will take stocks higher.  Dow rose 75 into the close, maybe that was from a whiff of bailout talk for Italy.  Strong holiday retail sales are encouraging for the US economy, but there are plenty of headaches starting with upcoming federal budget cuts & possibly lower export sales to Europe & China (with a slowing growth rate).  That jobs report on Fri is looking even more important now.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average





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Markets surge on bailout proposals

Dow was up 250 before trading began on hopes of another European bailout.  Dow is up 303, advancers over decliners 10-1 & NAZ was up 86.  Market leaders financials are leading the charge upward with the Financial Index up 4½ to the 162s.

The MLP index shot up 6+ to 367 & the REIT index gained 5 to 213.  MLPs have been holding up during the market sell-off in Nov.  Junk bond funds were up 1-2% (that's a good day) reflecting they are just stocks with high yields while Treasuries were sold, taking the yield on the benchmark 10 year bond over 2%.  Oil rose to its highest in more than a week on signs of economic recovery in the US, while sanctions on Syria stoked concern Middle East crude supplies may be threatened.  Gold remains stuck under $1700.

AMZ  Alerian MLP Index




DJR    Dow Jones Equity REIT Index



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.020%

U.S. 2-year

0.274%

U.S. 10-year

2.044%

CLF12.NYM....Crude Oil Jan 12...99.27 ...Up 2.50  (2.6%)

GCX11.CMX...Gold Nov 11....1,691.60 ...Up 6.10  (0.4%)

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Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel

Photo:   Bloomberg

Germany insisted that it has no plans to float bonds together with the eurozone's five other AAA rated nations & use the proceeds to provide assistance to some of the single currency bloc's indebted members, such as Italy & Spain.  The denial came as the IMF also dismissed reports it was planning a €600B bailout fund for Italy.  Also Moody's warned that the "rapid escalation" of Europe's financial crisis is threatening the credit worthiness of all eurozone govs, even the most highly rated.  Only 6 of the eurozone's 17 countries have the top rating.  Despite the denials, the markets are in a forgiving mood.  With the future of the € hanging in the balance, there are hopes that the recent signs of deterioration in the debt crisis will finally get Europe's leaders to agree on a package of measures that can ease market concerns over whether the € currency can survive.  One proposal often touted as a long-term solution is the issuance of eurobonds, whereby the 17 euro nations pool together to raise money in the markets.  However, Germany has opposed the principle of eurobonds since it would expose its taxpayers to the bad debt of weaker countries (Germany already funds the bulk of the existing bailouts).  The idea of "elite bonds" may help assuage those concerns as Germany would only join up with other top-rated nations.  But a German spokesman denied a report that initial plans on issuing the joint bonds have already been drawn up as part of a wider package to be presented by Chancellor Merkel & French President Sarkozy at the next EU summit.  All talk & no action is getting a very warm reception today.



Thanksgiving Sales Beat Record in Chase for Early Deals

Photo:   Bloomberg

Earlier store openings & steep discounts helped retailers notch record sales on the Black Friday weekend.  Total spending over the 4-day weekend following Thanksgiving reached a record $52.4B, up 16% from $45B last year, according to the National Retail Federation.  A record 226M consumers shopped in stores & online between Thurs-Sun, up from 212M last year.  Individual shoppers spent more too, the average holiday shopper spent $398.62, up from $365.34 in 2010.  Earlier openings at big-box retailers, helped boost sales, particularly among men & young adults. Nearly one-quarter of Black Friday shoppers were at stores by midnight on Black Friday, up from only 9.5% in 2010.  A separate survey from ShopperTrak, said retail sales on Black Friday alone climbed 6.6% to an estimated $11.4B.  Online retailers also played a bigger role with a slew of deep discounts & promotions well before Cyber Monday.  Online sales were up 39.3% on Thanksgiving Day & 24.3% on Black Friday.  Cyber Monday could also notch a new record, according to ComScore.  Online sales for 2011 are projected to hit $1.2B, up from $1B last year.  This is a good sign for the holiday season, but the ability to maintain margins is not known & consumers can be fickle in the next 3 weeks.

Thanksgiving Sales Set Record as Shoppers Chase Bargains


  • <p>               This Oct. 18, 2011 photo, shows new home construction in a development in Canonsburg, Pa. Americans bought slightly more new homes in October, but the median sales price fell to its lowest level this year. The mixed report suggests the nation's housing market is a long way from recovering. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
Photo:   Yahoo

Americans bought slightly more new homes in Oct, a hopeful sign, but the median sales price fell to its lowest level of the year & the overall sales pace is trailing last year's (the worst in half a century).  The housing depression continues to be a drag on the economy & is a long way from recovering.  New-home sales increased 1.3% to an annual rate of 307K according to the Commerce Dept, less than half the 700K that needs to be sold to sustain a healthy housing market.  The Sep data was also revised down significantly to show a weaker pace than first estimated.  Last year's 323K new homes sold were the fewest since record keeping began in 1963 & this year isn't faring much better.  The importance of new home sales is that each home built creates an average of 3 jobs for a year & generates about $90K in tax revenue.  Many builders have stopped working on new projects because they can't obtain financing.  The number of new homes for sale in the US fell in Oct to a record low of 162K.  Builders are also struggling to compete against cheaper re-sales, even as they lower prices.  The median sales price of a new home fell 0.4% to $212K.  Stocks buyers today might take this report to heart.  

Fewer New Homes Sales in U.S. Than Forecast


Markets were heavily oversold, setting them up for a significant rebound.  The idea of another European bailout & strong holiday sales are encouraging, but fundamental problems have not gone away.  New home sales are a vivid reminder of that.  After today's rally the question is raised, "Does this rally have legs?"  The European news is based on high hopes, but countries in the Eurozone are deeply divided, especially with some needed to bail out the weaker ones.  Auto sales for Nov will be out shortly & the big jobs reports comes on Fri.  Expectations for the jobs report are not high.

Dow Jones Industrial Average






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Friday, November 25, 2011

Markets had worst week in 2 months

Selling into the close brought the Dow to finish down 25, decliners ahead of advancers 4-3 & NAZ fell 18.  Bank stocks had a modest rise in their oversold condition.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 158.13 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    0.69    (0.4%)

The MLP & REIT indices along with junk bond funds were flattish.  Treasuries fell (sending yields higher) on fears that excessive demand may have taken yields too low.  Oil rose on speculation that euro- area leaders will do more to fight the debt crisis & on concern that tension in the Middle East will disrupt supply.  Gold continues trading sideways, below $1700.

AMZ  Alerian MLP Index



DJR  Dow Jones Equity REIT Index




Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.015%

U.S. 2-year

0.274%

U.S. 10-year

1.964%

CLF12.NYM...Crude Oil Jan 12...97.32 ...Up 1.15  (1.2%)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




S&P downgraded Belgium's credit rating to AA from AA-plus, saying funding & market risk pressures are raising the chances the country's financial sector will need more support.  Difficulties in the country's banking system & the gov's inability to respond to economic pressures contributed to the downgrade.  Belgium's debt position has worsened in recent months, particularly after it bought the Belgian arm of failing French-Belgian bank Dexia earlier this year.  Borrowing costs have increased sharply in recent days. The country's benchmark 10-year yield rose one percentage point to 5.832%, up from 4.817% at the start of the week.  "We think the Belgian government's capacity to prevent an increase in general government debt, which we consider to be already at high levels, is being constrained by rapid private sector deleveraging both in Belgium and among many of Belgium's key trading partners," S&P said.  Add another country to list of countries with debt problems.  Meanwhile, Italy paid a record 6.5% to borrow for 6 months & its longer-term funding costs soared far above levels seen as sustainable for public finances, raising the pressure on the new emergency gov.

Belgium’s Long-Term Credit Rating Cut to AA by S&P on Heightened Bond Risk


Dow dropped 564 this week (all 4 trading days saw declines), the worst week in 2 months.  Dow broke thru the important 11½K floor & now may have to test the 10.4K low reached almost 2 months ago.  Fundamentals looks bad as Europe appears to be imploding.  The banking system is coming apart & the region is heading for a recession.  The US economy is stronger, but some of that strength comes from exports to Europe & Asia which is increasing looking to be "iffy."  Next Fri, the Nov jobs report will be issued & that may not be encouraging.

Dow Jones Industrial Average




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Oversold markets rebound

In pre trading, markets were trading lower.  But stocks started strong, putting in a good performance.  This was to be expected from over sold conditions & slow trading on no major news.  Dow rose 81, advancers ahead of decliners 3-1 & NAZ was up a more modest 8.  Bank stocks continue to lead the markets.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 160.17 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change     2.73    (1.7%)

The Alerian MLP Index rose 1 to 361 while the REIT index was up 3 to 210.  Junk bond funds were higher (along with stocks) while Treasuries sold off after the recent rally.  Oil rose, following gains in stocks on speculation that euro-area leaders will do more to fight the debt crisis.  Gold is having a tough time finding friends, falling further below 1700.

AMZ   Alerian MLP Index




DJR  Dow Jones Equity REIT Index



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.015%

U.S. 2-year

0.274%

U.S. 10-year

1.950%

CLF12.NYM....Crude Oil Jan 12...97.24 ...Up 1.07  (1.1%)

GCX11.CMX...Gold Nov 11....1,688.90 ...Down 6.80  (0.4%)


Get the latest market update below:



Hungrary will redouble efforts to obtain IMFaid & the central bank should raise rates to ease financing risks after Moody’s cut the country’s credit grade to junk.  The foreign local-currency bond ratings were cut one step to Ba1 from Baa3, Moody'said yesterday & was assigned a negative outlook.  Prime Minister Orban, who had shunned seeking an IMF loan since coming to power last year until the currency fell to a record against the € this month, may need to accelerate talks with the IMF to bolster confidence.  The gov is seeking “insurance” from the IMF & the European Union that doesn’t entail a loan & doesn’t impose conditions on the economic policy.  Orban wants to retain a “free hand” in economic policy, which included forcing banks to swallow exchange-rate losses on foreign-currency mortgages & levying extraordinary industry taxes.  The central bank will probably raise the benchmark 2-week rate to 6.5% next week from 6% after holding the 2-week deposit rate unchanged since Jan.  The yield on the benchmark 5-year bond yield rose 89 basis points to 9.78%, rising the most in 2½ years.  Hungary’s foreign-currency debt maturing next year will soar to $5.8B, a 48% increase from this year.   Add another country to the troubled list in Europe.


<p>Customers shop at Macy's department store in New York November 25, 2011. REUTERS/Eric Thayer</p>

Photo:   Yahoo

Eager shoppers hunted for bargains on big-screen televisions, video games & toys while fretting about their shaky economic well-being, looking for bargains on Black Fri.  Some stores pushed their openings & specials up to Thanksgiving night, hoping to get a jump-start on the busiest day of their year. While Black Fri has been the busiest day for years in terms of traffic at stores, it does not always mean that sales will soar for the season.  Despite brisk sales right after Thanksgiving, total holiday season sales fell in both 2008 & 2009 when the recession took its hold on wallets.  The National Retail Federation expects 152M to hit stores this weekend, up 10.1% from last year, but it only expects sales for the full Nov-Dec holiday season to rise 2.8%, after climbing 5.2% in 2010.  Another sign that this is not a robust economic recovery.

Crowds hit stores for "Black Friday" deals


Emerging-market stocks fell to a 7-week low after Moody’s downgraded Hungary’s debt to junk status & a EU official said the European debt crisis is spreading to core countries.  European debts are getting even messier & the US economy is stumbling along, not a good background for a rising market.  Even after today's rebound, Dow is down 460 this week, its worst Thanksgiving holiday week in decades..
 
Dow Jones Industrial Average








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