Friday, December 28, 2012

Markets lose ground as politicos meet in the White House

Dow fell 158 closing at the lows & going below 13K, decliners ahead of advancers 2-1 & NAZ was off 25.  The Financial Index fell 1+ to the  218s.  The MLP index was flattish in the 378s & the REIT index lost 2 to the 264s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries didn't do much.  After going over $90, oil was flat & gold lost a tad in the mid 1600s.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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CLG13.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 13...90.85 ...Down 0.02  (0.0%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Port Shutdown Averted as Dockworkers Reach Tentative Agreement

Photo:   Bloomberg

Dockworkers & their employers reached a tentative agreement on royalty payments, averting a strike that would have shut down US ports from Maine to Texas for the first time in 35 years.  The Intl Longshoremen's Assoc & the US Maritime Alliance will continue negotiations for another 30 days, according to the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service, which was working with the 2 groups.  A strike would have closed ports that handle about 45% of US commerce. The deal relieves pressure on retailers & manufacturers that had braced for interruptions of shipments from frozen foods to clothing & car parts.  Talks between the dockworkers union & the Maritime Alliance, whose members include container- carriers,collapsed last week amid a dispute over container royalty fees, or levies on shipments that supplement wages.  “The agreement on this important subject represents a major positive step toward achieving an overall collective bargaining agreement,” George Cohen, director of the mediation service, said.  “While some significant issues remain in contention, I am cautiously optimistic that they can be resolved in the upcoming 30-day extension period.”

Port Shutdown Averted as Dockworkers Reach Tentative Deal


Obama to Offer 'Mini Deal' on Fiscal Cliff: What's at Stake for Today's Meeting?

Photo:   Yahoo

After conflicting reports on whether a new offer was coming & in advance of a White House summit Fri PM, Obama has reportedly crafted a "scaled back" proposal that would, temporarily (at least) avoid next week's fiscal cliff.  The new "mini-deal" offer would delay or replace the vast majority of spending cuts called for in the automatic sequester, most likely focusing on the sharp cuts in military spending.  It would also seek to settle the planned hike in the Alternative Minimum Tax, extend unemployment benefits & stop planned cuts to Medicare reimbursements.  One final bonus, the latest proposal reportedly includes a "milk fix" that will avoid a dairy market catastrophe created by the failure to renew the farm bill.  On the key plank of taxes, the pres will continue to demand that Bush-era cuts be extended at all income levels, except for those making more than $250K a year. All of this is subject to negotiation.

Obama to Offer Scaled-Down 'Cliff' Deal: What's at Stake for Today's Meeting? 

The Atlantic Wire


¿Cuáles fueron los autos más vendidos del año?

Photo:   Yahoo

Auto sales are expected to show a rise of 9% for Dec, capping off the best year for the industry since 2007, fueled by easier access to credit, rising home prices & pent-up demand.  But when major automakers report Decsales next Thurs, a strong end to the year could be overshadowed by concerns that consumers will curb spending in Jan due to gong over the fiscal cliff.  Consumer confidence fell to a 4-month low in Dec on worries over the $600B in automatic spending cuts & tax increases that take effect unless Congress acts to stop them.  Overall 2012 sales are expected to finish at 14.5M vehicles, more than 13% higher than the previous year.  This marks the 3rd straight year that the industry has posted a double-digit sales gain.  Gains in 2013 are expected to slow to single-digit growth, with several forecasting only modest improvements in consumer confidence & employment.  Kelley Blue Book said a tax increase for middle-income households could hold back sales growth thru 2013 & beyond. 

Auto Sales to End Year Strong, 'Cliff' May Weigh Reuters


This is what happens when you postpone an important deadline until AFTER the election & then wait to the last minute hoping that manna will fall from heaven to solve problems.  Dems are zeroing in on cutting tax rates for the wealthy while Reps are focusing in on cutting spending (beyond shaving growth rates a little which can sound like cutting spending).  The big meeting in the White House is going on & the markets are sinking.  Vibrations from the meeting are bad & that should be expected.  Chances are enormous that nothing will be decided.  Then it will be up to the Sun evening meeting by the House.  It's hard to image that it will come up with a Scotch Tape approach that will make everybody happy.  Mon will be a shortened day for the markets & it could get ugly.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Lower markets as the fiscal cliff approaches

Dow dropped 49, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ fell 4.  The Financial Index slipped a fraction to the 219s.  The MLP index is up a fraction to the 379s (in what has been a very tough month) & the REIT index lost a fraction in the 266s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries fluctuated.  Oil headed for the biggest weekly gain since Sep as lawmakers scheduled talks aimed at averting automatic tax increases & spending cuts.  Gold was lower.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart


CLG13.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 13...91.21 ...Up 0.34 (0.4%)

GCF13.CMX...Gold Jan 13......1,660.10 ...Down 2.60  (0.2%)










President Barack Obama

Photo:   Bloomberg

Obama summoned congressional leaders to a White House meeting 3 days before a year-end deadline to avoid $600B in spending cuts & tax increases as politicos gave little sign they intend to act together on a budget plan.  He will meet with Reps & Dems to see iff there is anythning they can do at the last minute.  Lawmakers disputed which party would be responsible for missing the deadline for a debt deal, a failure that could hurt the US credit rating & cause an economic recession.  The meeting will be held at 3PM.  “We’ll see what the president has to propose,” Sen McConnell said on the Senate floor yesterday.  “Hopefully there is still time for an agreement of some kind that saves the taxpayers from a wholly preventable economic crisis.”   In DC, pessimism was the prevailing mood as the deadline as the fiscal cliff approached.  The Rep led House called an unusual Sun session for the evening of Dec 30, though it's not clear say what action will be taken.  The meeting today is pure theater, so the pres appears to be in command & doing something. 

Obama Summons Congress Leaders as Budget Deadline Nears


A measure of Americans who signed contracts to buy homes increased last month to its highest level in 2½ years, the latest sign of improvement in the housing market.  The National Association of Realtors said that its pending home sales index rose 1.7% in Nov from Oct to 106.4, the highest since Apr 2010, when a homebuyer tax credit caused a spike in sales.  After excluding those months when the tax credit was available, it's the best reading since Feb 2007.  The increase points to higher sales of previously occupied homes in the coming months.  There's generally a 1-2 month lag between a signed contract & a completed sale.  Home sales are on track to rise 10% this year to their highest level in 5 years, buoyed by ultra-low mortgage rates & steady job gains.  The combination of stronger demand & limited supply is pushing up home prices.  That could encourage more sellers to put their homes on the market because they can expect a better price.

Pending Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Climb for Third Month=


Home Depot’s Christmas in April Imperiled

Photo:   Bloomberg

Home Depot (HD), a Dow stock, & Lowe's (LOW) have the most at stake among retailers facing a dockworkers’ strike, with possible port closings cutting off shipments right before the lucrative gardening season.  HD is making plans in case 15K workers at ports from Maine to Texas go on strike.  About 45% of the commerce that flows in & out of the US goes thru East Coast ports, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).  Retailers “would be hit far and wide from apparel to home goods to patio furniture to barbecues,” Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s VP for supply chain & customs policy, said.  “It is a major concern. At this point, we don’t anticipate a settlement.”  The International Longshoremen’s Association has vowed to walk out if a deal isn’t reached before the Dec 29 expiration of its contract with the US Maritime Alliance, whose members include container-carrier companies.  Talks broke down last week after 9 months of negotiations.  A strike would be the first at East Coast & Gulf Coast ports since 1977.

Home Depot’s Christmas in April Imperiled by Port Strike


The White House meeting later today is purely theater as will be the House session on Sun evening.  Both sides are dug in for a long fight & it's difficult to imagine a last minute decision that will solve $1T worth of problems.  Extending lower taxes for Social Security also needs to be settled.  As if that weren't enough, raising the debt ceiling is right behind solving this mess & that fight could get even uglier.  So far, stocks are taking all this uncertainty as just a minor annoyance.  If  buyers give up, the stock market could have a major decline.

Dow Jones Industrials


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