Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Markets waffle as US GDP contracts in Q4

Dow slipped 14, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ was flat.  The Financial Index was down 1+ to the 234s. The MLP index pulled back 2 to the 426s from yesterday's new record & the REIT index lost 3 to the 278s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries fell, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury over 2%.  Oil was flattish at an almost 9 month high & gold shot up 18, negative bets on economic recovery.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Tracking fund:

U.S. 3-month

0.068%

U.S. 2-year

0.275%

U.S. 10-year

2.015%

CLH13.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 13...97.79 .....Up 0.22 (0.2%

GCG13.CMX...Gold Feb 13.....1,676.30 ...Up 15.50 (0.9%)








<p>               In this Wed. Dec. 5, 2012, photo, containers are unloaded from cargo ships at  the Port of Los Angeles. Most economists agree that the snapshot of U.S. economic growth released Wednesday, Jan. 30, 2012, is going to look dismal. (AP Photo/Nick Ut)

Photo:   Yahoo

The US economy shrank in Q4 for the first time since the recession ended, hurt by the biggest cut in defense spending in 40 years, fewer exports & sluggish growth in company stockpiles.  The decline occurred despite faster growth in consumer spending & business investment.  The Commerce Dept said that the economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.1% in Q4, a sharp slowdown from the 3.1% growth rate in Q3 & the first contraction since Q2 2009.  Economists said the surprise decrease wasn't as bad as it looked because the weakness was primarily the result of one-time factors.  Gov spending cuts & slower inventory growth subtracted 2.6 percentage points from growth.  Those volatile categories offset a 2.2% increase in consumer spending, up from only 1.6% in Q3.  And business spending on equipment & software rose after shrinking over the summer.  For all of 2012, the economy grew 2.2%, better than 2011's growth of 1.8%.  Exports fell by the most in nearly 4 years, likely a result of Europe's recession & slower growth in China other large developing countries.  The economy may stay weak at the start of the year because Americans are coming to grips with an increase in Social Security taxes that has left them with less take-home pay.



 

Photo:   Yahoo

Boeing, a Dow  stock, quarterly earnings & revenue beat expectations.  EPS excluding items fell to $1.28 from $1.83 in the year-earlier period & revenue rose to $22.4B from $19.6B.  Analysts had expected $22.4B in revenue with EPS of $1.19.  BA said its current guidance for 2013 assumes no significant discount for the Federal Aviation Administration's 787 investigation into the lithium-ion batteries used on the aircraft that had experienced multiple problems & raised questions about their reliability.  The company expects EPS, excluding items, of $6.10-$6.30, & forecast capital expenditures of $2.3-$2.5B.  BA also said it is on track to produce 635-645 aircraft in 2013, including 60 787s.  The stock rose 70¢.

Boeing Profit View Meets Estimates as 787 Probe Drags

Boeing (BA)

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Speaking of a shrinking economy, Spain's recession is worse than thought.  Official figures show the economy shrank 0.7% in Q4 2012 from Q3.  The figure from Spain's National Statistics Office was higher than last week's 0.6% estimate from the Bank of Spain & provides further evidence that the economy is hobbled by its high level of debts & sky-high unemployment as well as the gov's raft of austerity measures.  The economy, the 4th-biggest of the 17 EU countries that use the €, has been shrinking for the last 18 months & unemployment stands at a heady 26%.  The statistics department said economic activity was down 1.8% in Q4 from the year-earlier period.  For the whole of 2012, it shrank 1.4% (that's a lot).  The Q4 decline was also more than double the 0.3% drop recorded in Q3.  The € was up a smidgen at almost $1.36.

Spain's recession deeper than thought AP


All month, stocks have been absorbing negative news well with only minimal selling.  Macro economic issues have been discarded & Dow is up 925 YTD, one of its best months in history.  The euro region economy remains in a recession with the troubled countries floundering.  And the US has whopper size financial problems starting with lower take home pay for the vast majority of Americans.  A sluggish economy & gov cutbacks in spending may get more recognition in Feb.

Dow Jones Industrials

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Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Dow climbs to a 5 year high on earnings reports

Dow rose 72, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 but NAZ slid a fraction.  The Financial Index inched up 1 to the 235s.  The MLP index climbed 1 to the 428s (up almost 50 in Jan) & the REIT index inched up pocket change to the 281s.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Traesuries also sold off.  Oil gained 1 to the 97s while gold advanced 10 to 1662.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart







Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.068%

U.S. 2-year

0.279%

U.S. 10-year

1.987%

Bernanke Talks About Fed Policy in Michigan
5

Photo:   Bloomberg

Big Ben's latest round of bond buying will probably reach more than $1.1T before the program ends in Q1 2014.  He will push on with purchases of $40B of mortgage bonds a month & $45B a month of Treasuries, although some FED officials warn his unprecedented balance-sheet expansion will impair efforts to tighten policy when necessary.  The FMOC should renew its commitment to asset buying during a 2-day meeting that began today, after determining the benefits from the program exceed any risk of inflation or financial instability.  Bernanke has said the policy will continue until there are “substantial” gains in employment.  But FED officials have a brighter outlook for the economy than many private economists.  FOMC participants forecast growth this year ranging from 2.3-3.0%, while economists have a median estimate of 2%.  Stay tuned for tomorrow's post meeting announcement.

Bernanke Seen Buying $1.14 Trillion in Assets in 2014


Pfizer Forecasts Full-Year Profit Higher Than Analyst Estimates
Photo:   Bloomberg

Pfizer, a Dow stock,  Q4 results easily beat expectations as profit more than quadrupled, due to tighter spending & a $4.8B gain from selling its nutrition business.   Those boosts offset competition from generic drugs hurting sales of Lipitor & other medicines.   EPS was 85¢, up from 19¢ a year earlier.   Excluding the windfall from selling its nutrition business for $11.5B, & a total of $888M for restructuring, legal & other one-time items, EPS was 47¢ or 3¢ better than forecast.   Revenue fell 7% to $15.1B, mainly due to generic competition to anti cholesterol Lipitor, above the forecast of $14.3B.   PFE expects 2013 EPS of $2.20-$2.30, excluding one-time items, & revenue of $56.2-$58.2B.   Analysts are forecasting EPS of $2.28 on revenue of $57.5B.  In Q4, Lipitor sales plunged 91% in the US & 71% worldwide, to $584M.   Altogether, generic competition reduced prescription drug revenue by more than $2.1B & unfavorable currency exchange rates lopped off another 2%, or $271M.   However, several key newer drugs had double-digit sales increases, including fibromyalgia & pain treatment Lyrica, at $1.13B, painkiller Celebrex at $750M, & the Prevnar 13 vaccine against meningitis & other pneumococcal infections, at $993M.  Viagra was up 6% at $553M.  The stock rose 86¢.

Pfizer Forecasts Annual Profit Higher Than Estimates on Two New Products

Pfizer (PFE)

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Yahoo Beats Analysts’ Sales Estimates on Advertising-Price Gains

Photo:   Bloomberg

Yahoo reported Q4 revenue that topped estimates & increased annual sales for the first time since 2008 as it benefited from buoyant demand for online search.  Q4 EPS, excluding some items, was 32¢ & sales (excluding revenue passed to partner sites) rose 4% to $1.22B.  Analysts were looking for EPS of 28¢ on revenue of $1.21B.  CEO Marissa Mayer said she expects to build on the gains by getting users to spend more time on a dozen popular sites, including mail & Yahoo Finance.  Still, forecasts for this qtr & the full year fell short of predictions, underscoring the challenge she faces in display advertising.  The stock was off 61¢.

Yahoo Sales Top Analysts’ Estimates After Rising for First Time Since 2008

Yahoo (YHOO)

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Stocks resumed their flight to heavens, led but MLP index which is having its best month in history.  Meanwhile, treasury yields are at their highest levels in 8 months.  Risk averse is not an issue in today's markets.  Of little notice, oil is approaching $100 & that has been a troublesome level in the past.  Stocks buyers are not worried.  Maybe they're hoping Big Ben will announce tomorrow that the FED will throw more money at the markets.  The Dow is already up 850 in Jan.  The new month is almost here & that should bring more attention to the debt mess in DC & how little has been done because the 2 sides remain deeply divided.

Dow Jones Industrials

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