Thursday, February 27, 2014

Markets fluctuate after indecisive durable goods orders data

Dow slid 1, advancers just ahead of decliners & NAZ was up 4.  The MLP index dropped 3+ to under 461, remaining near its record highs set earlier this month, & the REIT index lost a fraction in the 283s.. Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries edged higher.  Oil was lower & gold went back to its winning ways in this year. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.32%

U.S. 10-year

2.64%

CLJ14.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 14...102.07 Down ...0.52  (0.5%)

GCH14.CMX...Gold Mar 14......1,332.30 Up ...4.30 (0.3%)








More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the labor market is improving in fits & starts.  Jobless claims increased 14K to 348K, exceeding all forecasts & the highest level in a month, from 334K in the prior period, according to the Labor Dept.  Cold temperatures & winter storms have damped progress in the housing & labor market, indicating growth slowed in the first 2 months of the year.  The prior week’s claims were revised down to 334K from an initial reading of 336K.   The 4-week average of claims was unchanged at 338K.  The number continuing to receive jobless benefits increased 8K to 2.96M in the latest week.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Climbed Last Week to One-Month High


Orders for US durable goods fell less than forecast in Jan, a sign manufacturing was beginning to emerge from harsh winter weather.  The 1% decrease in bookings for goods meant to last at least 3 years followed a revised 5.3% slump in Dec that was larger than previously estimated, according to the Commerce Dept.  The estimate called for a 1.7% decline.  Orders for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, improved.  The figures show companies are regaining confidence the economy will rebound as temperatures warm, encouraging factories to boost production.  Advances in business investment will be needed to broaden economic growth beyond gains in consumer spending & housing.  Bookings for durable goods notched the first back-to-back decline since 2011   Excluding transportation equipment, orders increased 1.1%, the biggest gain since May, after a 1.9% drop in Dec.  Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.7% after a 1.8% decrease in Dec that was larger than previously estimated.  Shipments of those goods, a measure used to calculate GDP, fell 0.8% in Jan after rising 0.3% the prior month, starting Q1 on a weak note.  Bookings for commercial aircraft dropped 20.2% after a 22.3% decrease in Dec.

Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Decrease Less Than Forecas


Ukrainian officials notified the IMF of the country’s request for financial support, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said.  “We are ready to respond and, in the coming days, will send an IMF fact-finding team to Kiev to undertake a preliminary dialogue with the authorities,” Lagarde said.  “This will enable the IMF to make its usual technical, independent assessment of the economic situation in Ukraine and, at the same time, begin to discuss with the authorities the policy reforms that could form the basis of a Fund-supported program.”   Arseniy Yatsenyuk won the support of Ukrainian protesters in Kiev to lead an interim cabinet after the nation’s bloodiest unrest since World War II.  Lawmakers were set to approve Yatsenyuk as prime minister today ahead of a parliamentary ballot in 4 months, acting President Oleksandr Turchynov said.  With the former prime minister on the run & facing murder charges, Yatsenyuk must seal a $35B financial lifeline to avert a default as investors pull money out of Ukraine.  While the US & the EU have pledged aid, Russia has questioned the new administration’s legitimacy & halted a $15B bailout.  Ukraine’s currency, the hryvnia, is at the weakest level since its 1996 introduction.



Stocks extended their sideways trading during this week.  News has been mixed.  The unsettled situation in Ukraine is a dark cloud that will not go away soon.  Effects form the winter weather affecting much of the US are being seen in macro economic data.  Earnings from retailers are coming in sort of good.  But accounting adjustments & stock repurchases generally have more to do with higher EPS than increased revenue.  The Feb rally has not been able to eliminate a lower Dow for the year.

Dow Jones Industrials










Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Markets struggle for gains after housing data and retail earnings

Dow crawled up 18, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ rose 4.  After slipping & sliding for more than a week, the MLP index jumped 5+ to the 463s while the REIT index inched up pocket change to 284.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries rose.  Oil gained & gold posted the biggest drop in almost 4 weeks after an increase in new-home sales in the US bolstered optimism in the economy, crimping demand for the metal as an alternative investment.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)










Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.32%

U.S. 10-year

2.67%

CLJ14.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 14....102.55 Up ...0.72 (0.7%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Federal Reserve (FED) Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said the FED should be patient in removing accommodation because of persistent damage to the US labor market.  “There remains significant slack in labor markets, above and beyond the slack usually represented by the standard unemployment rate,” which fell to 6.6% last month, Rosengren said in prepared remarks.  “Such conditions call for a very patient approach to removing monetary policy accommodation, particularly given the softness in recent economic data.”  Rosengren’s remarks echo FED Chair Janet Yellen's view that the job market has yet to make a full recovery from the longest & deepest recession in decades.  Rosengren, a consistent supporter of the stimulus, initially opposed the central bank's Dec decision to begin slowing the pace of bond purchases.  Since then, he has said that while he would have preferred to start the tapering later, he supports the strategy of trimming bond buying in $10B increments at meetings of the FOMC.  The central bank may halt its reductions in the pace of bond purchases if the economy proves weak for reasons other than harsh winter weather, Rosengren said in response to a question.  “If we find out the economy is slow, not because of weather but because of underlying fundamentals,” then “we could certainly pause in terms of the tapering program,” he said.  “We do look at it with a great deal of detail but the driver is still to think about how it impacts our domestic markets,” Rosengren said, referring to risk of instability among emerging markets.  “We have to weigh that primarily against our own domestic objectives.”  Rosengren said he doesn’t generally see signs of excessive risk-taking.  “I don’t see a great deal of issue with the pricing in most financial markets and still see some significant problems in labor markets,” he added.

Rosengren Urges Patience in Stimulus Cut as Jobs Market Weak


IBM,a Dow stock, is encouraging software developers to build applications on its artificial-intelligence system Watson, looking to data analytics to help reverse falling revenue.  It will host a mobile developer challenge that urges programmers to create consumer & business apps powered by Watson, CEO Ginni Rometty said.  In 3 months, the company will choose 3 prototypes to receive design consulting & support to develop commercial apps.  IBM has been increasing its investment in Watson as the company works to show clients the value of the technology, which analyzes troves of data & can answer questions in conversational language.  The company said in Jan that it will spend $1B to create a new division around Watson to help spur growth after 7 consecutive qtrs of declining revenue.  “You run a business today and you reinvent it for the future at the same time,” Rometty said.  “You go through these transitions. If you try to compare today to the past, today the speed is much faster.”  As sluggish demand for computer hardware has hurt sales, IBM has focused on more profitable, faster-growing areas such as data analytics & cloud computing, & the company has also sold hardware businesses.  Watson & other big-data services were the company’s primary focus in 2013, Rometty said ago.  Last year, IBM boosted its expected sales from the data-analysis business to $20B in 2015, compared with an earlier forecast of $16B.  The stock rose 83¢.  If you would like to lean more about IBM, click on this link:
http://club.ino.com/trend/?symb=IBM&a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

IBM Encouraging Software Developers to Build Mobile Apps Based On Watson

International Business Machines (IBM)




Target stock, a Dividend Aristocrat, jumped the most in almost 5 years after Q4 profit topped estimates & the retailer said it was beginning to recover from a data breach that struck during the holiday season.  EPS was 81¢, which compares with $1.47 a year earlier.  Analysts had projected 79¢.  Sales declined 5.3% to $21.5B, matching predictions.  CEO Gregg Steinhafel has been working to keep customers coming into stores after hackers stole card data & personal information from millions of shoppers in Dec.  The company offered customers a weekend of 10% discounts that month & a year of free credit monitoring.  Those efforts are beginning to pay off, Steinhafel said. 
“We will continue to work tirelessly to win back the confidence of our guests and deliver irresistible merchandise and offers, and we are encouraged that sales trends have improved in recent weeks,” he said.  The US comparable-store sales decreased 2.5% in Q4, in line with the company’s forecast.  It attributed the decline to the hacker attack. Sales are expected to be almost flat in Feb, a faster recovery than Yarbrough had predicted.  TGT also indicated that it will make $1-$2B in stock repurchases this year.  After opening its first stores in Canada about a year ago, TGT said it will begin including those results in its adjusted earnings figures.  On that basis, which excludes costs from the data breach, it expects EPS of 60-75¢ this qtr.  For the full year, it expects EPS of $3.85-$4.15.  The Canadian segment generated sales of $623M last qtr & reduced EPS by 40¢, the company said.  The operation lost $941M before interest & taxes in 2013, cutting the year’s EPS by $1.13.  In Q1, the company expects sales of $400-$450M in Canada with a loss of $150-$170M, excluding some items.  The stock shot up 3.98 (7%).  If you would like to lean more about TGT, click on this link:
http://club.ino.com/trend/?symb=TGT&a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Target’s Shares Jump as Chain Begins to Recover From Data Breach

Target




The Feb rally has flattened out this week.  Retail earnings are encouraging, even though improved sales has not always been part of the story.  There has not been significant news to support higher stock prices, other than the oversold market in Jan.  It's unclear why the bulls have given up this week.  But Dow is still in the red YTD, by 380 with 1/6 of the year behind us.

Dow Jones Industrials









I’m a huge fan of INO & from what I have seen so far, their service Marketclub!  This isn’t a stripped down version, everything in MarketClub is available to you.  I don’t want to give everything away, but you’ll have unlimited access to my favorite 3 tools: Trade Triangles, Smart Scan & Alerts!
The best part is that the MarketClub customer support team will be providing UNLIMITED support!
You can call or email for an instant response to any question, comment or concern.

Here’s that link:

https://club.ino.com/join/specialtrial/index_free.html?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=359ef9a3

I recommend you jump on this now.