Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Higher market on earnings reports

Dow went up 81, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ added 16.  The MLP index jumped 4+ to 484 & the REIT index was up fractionally in the 292s.. Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries slid lower.  Oil rose after the US & EU added to sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis while gold hardly budged.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.01%

U.S. 2-year

0.44%

U.S. 10-year

2.71%

CLM14.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 14...102.10 Up ...1.26 (1.3%)

GCK14.CMX...Gold May 14.....1,298.90 Up ...0.20 (0.0%)









Confidence among US consumers declined in Apr from a 6-year high as Americans became less optimistic about the economy & labor market.  The Conference Board’s index decreased to 82.3 from 83.9 a month earlier that was stronger than initially estimated & the highest in 6 years.  The forecast called for a reading of 83.2.  Limited gains in the stock market this year, rising prices at the gas pump & a slowdown in the housing market tied in part to higher interest rates risk leaving Americans less sanguine about their finances.  At the same time, more anticipated an increase in employment opportunities in the next 6 months, which could help keep sentiment & consumer confidence from faltering.   The Conference Board’s gauge of  present  conditions dropped to a 3-month low of 78.3 after 82.5 in Mar.  The barometer of consumer expectations for the next 6 months was little changed at 84.9 after 84.8 a month earlier.  “Consumer confidence declined slightly in April as consumers assessed current business and labor market conditions less favorably than in March,” Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said.  “However, their expectations regarding the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market held steady.”  The share of respondents who said they expected their incomes to rise increased to an 8-month high of 17.1% from 15.3% a month earlier.  The proportion of Americans who said jobs would become more plentiful in the next 6 months climbed to 15% from 14.1.

Consumer Confidence Index in U.S. Decreased to 82.3 in April


The EU widened sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine, following similar steps yesterday by the US, which called separatist violence in the country’s east “terrorism, pure and simple.”  The EU added Russian Deputy Premier Dmitry Kozak to a list of people facing travel bans & asset freezes along with others including pro-Russian separatist leader.  The US targeted 7 people, including Kozak & Igor Sechin, head of oil giant OAO Rosneff, & 17 companies yesterday linked to allies of Putin.  The EU & the US say Russia hasn’t lived up to an accord signed Apr 17 intended to defuse the confrontation between the Ukrainian gov & pro-Russian separatists.  They’ve both warned that they’ll levy penalties on Russian industries if Putin escalates by sending troops into Ukraine.  The bloc said yesterday that the people on the list are “responsible for actions which undermine or threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine.”  The latest names, brings the number blacklisted to 70.  EU preparations for “stage three” measures that would affect broader sectors of the Russian economy are “very advanced,” a spokeswoman for European foreign-affairs said.  “The shift toward tier three would be in the event of a very, very serious escalation of the type that you might associate with direct military invasions,” a spokesman for UK Premier Cameron said.

EU Joins U.S. With New Sanctions on Russia Over Ukraine


Coach, which has been working to refashion itself into a lifestyle brand selling everything from high-heeled shoes to trench coats, reported sales at North American stores open at least a year plunged 21% in fiscal Q3.  That’s steeper than the 15% slide projected & the 14% drop during the holiday fiscal Q2.  To make matters worse, COH said sales by that measure may slide just as much in Q4.  Fiscal Q3 revenue fell 7.4% to $1.1B, trailing the $1.13B estimate.  CEO Victor Luis added that the shift of Easter from Mar to Apr & a plan to reduce online promotions contributed to the drop.  “Our business in North America remained challenging in the period,” Luis said.  “We experienced sharply lower traffic levels in our stores while our Internet results were impacted by our strategic decisions.”  CFO Jane Nielsen said that North American same-store sales will fall as much in fiscal Q4 as they did in the last qtr.  She also said the company stopped buying back shares after spending $525M so far this year, less than the $700M it planned on spending in that timeframe, & will retain that cash to invest in the business.  Q3 EPS dropped to 68¢ from 84¢ a year earlier & the estimate was for 61¢.  The stock tumbled 4.23 (9%).  If you would like to lean more about COH, click on this link:  

Coach North American Sales Fall Amid Competition, Storms

Coach (COH)


stock chart


Earnings were generally favorable today (aside from COH) which is bringing out buyers.  Merck (MRK), a Dow stock, & Herbalife (HLF) reported good numbers.  But tensions in eastern Europe remain high & the Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement is now on hold, raising the price of oil.  Dow is approaching its record high reached at the end of 2013.

Dow Jones Industrials










Monday, April 28, 2014

Dow gains while the rest of stocks waffle

Dow shot up 87, advancers only marginally ahead of declines & NAZ slid 1+.  The MLP index went up fractionally to the 479s & the REIT index added 2+ to the 292s (a 9 month high).  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries were mixed.  Oil rose & gold fell, ending the longest rally in 6 weeks, as pending sales of previously owned US homes had the biggest gain in almost 3 years, crimping demand for the precious metal as an alternative asset.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)








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Treasury yieles:

U.S. 3-month

0.01%

U.S. 2-year

0.43%

U.S. 10-year

2.68%

CLM14.NYM....Crude Oil Jun 14....100.87 Up ...0.27 (0.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Asian policy makers must push ahead with structural changes to ensure the region continues to lead global growth & withstand volatility as the US reduces monetary stimulus, the IMF said.  Asian economies will face higher interest rates & bouts of volatility in capital flows & asset prices as global liquidity tightens amid a recovery in advanced nations.  Tightening of global liquidity is one of the 4 main risks confronting Asia this year & next year, the IMF said.  Other dangers include a sharper-than-envisaged slowdown in China, waning effectiveness of growth-supporting policies in Japan, & political & geopolitical tensions that disrupt trade, it said.  “Asia is well positioned to meet the challenges ahead provided it stays the course on reforms.”   “Reforms are critical not only to sustain Asia’s growth leadership over the medium term, but also, in some cases, to maintain investor confidence and secure financial stability in the near term.”  Economic expansion in Asia will be more than twice as fast as advanced nations this year, while growth in the emerging Asian economies, which includes China & India, will be 3 times faster, the IMF estimates.  Even so, productivity has decelerated in recent years & the region needs a new wave of reforms to boost potential growth and to continue to attract inward investment, according to the report.  Asian economies are now more resilient to global financial volatility after implementing policies to address their vulnerabilities, the IMF said, noting that India & Indonesia were among nations that were able to better weather the Jan rout in emerging-market currencies & equities as the Federal Reserve began withdrawing stimulus.  Yet a sudden or sharper-than-anticipated tightening of global financial conditions remains “a key downside risk” for Asia.  Low inflation in most economies will allow central banks to loosen monetary policy & cushion the blow on growth.  Within the region, the IMF highlighted risks posed by China & Japan, Asia’s 2 largest economies.  It estimates China will expand 7.5% this year & 7.3% next year, while Japan will grow 1.4% & 1%.

IMF Says Asia Must Pursue Structural Changes Amid Volatility


Pfizer, a Dow stock, proposed buying AstraZeneca (AZN) for about £58.8B ($98.7B) in what would rank as the industry’s biggest-ever takeover, surpassing its $64B purchase of Wyeth in 2009.  AZN spurned the offer as too low, & PFE said it’s considering its options.  If AZN eventually agrees, a deal would create a company incorporated in the UK for tax purposes & run from New York.  AZN operations would be sewn into the 3 new business units at PFE.  The company offered £46.61 a share in cash & stock in Jan, & AZN declined.  The proposal is about 14% above Fri close for AZN & the stock today climbed above that price.  “We tried to get a mutual announcement to say we were in preliminary discussions,” PFE CEO Ian Read said.  “AstraZeneca rebuffed that, which is why we were forced to make the announcement.”  Another key component of the deal is moving PFE outside the US for tax purposes.  A deal would allow PFE to use $70B of cash it has built up overseas that would be subject to taxes if brought back to the US, because the combined company would be incorporated in the UK, would lead to a lower tax rate.  “I don’t see why there’s any conflict in what we’re doing with U.S. policy,” he said.  The company would keep its operational headquarters in the US & maintain a US stock listing.  PFE CEO has complained before about the US corp tax rate, the highest in the world.  “We saw how difficult it was to do business development with an uncompetitive tax rate,” he said.  PFE stock rose $1.29 & AZN shot up $8.33 to $76.99.  If your would like to learn more about PFE, click on this link for Trend Analysis:
http://club.ino.com/trend/?symb=AAPL&a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Pfizer Will Pursue $98.7 Billion AstraZeneca Takeover After Bid Rejected

Pfizer (PFE)




Mario Draghi, ECB President, told German lawmakers that a quantitative-easing program isn’t imminent & is relatively unlikely for now.  The central bank does stand ready to embark on QE if needed, Draghi said at the gathering from the parties that form the nation’s coalition gov.  Draghi has said he is considering unprecedented measures from negative interest rates to QE to avert the risk of deflation as he guides the euro area thru a gradual economic recovery.  Gov & central-bank officials in Germany, the region’s largest economy, have been among the strongest opponents of his more radical policies amid concern the ECB will overstep its mandate.  While the ECB expects a prolonged period of low inflation, Draghi doesn’t see the imminent threat of falling prices.  Inflation in the bloc slid to 0.5% in Mar, the lowest rate in more than 4 years & below the ECB’s goal of just under 2%.  Consumer prices are forecast top rise 0.8% this month from a year earlier.  Draghi said this month that ECB officials are unanimous in their willingness to use unconventional tools if needed to support the recovery.  In a speech last week, he said the central bank could start broad-based asset purchases if the medium-term outlook for inflation worsens.

Draghi Is Said to Tell German Lawmakers Quantitative Easing Isn’t Imminent


This was an unusual day for the markets.  Dow gained with PFE leading the way.  But the rest of the market did little.  Earnings season is winding down & so far has been less than inspiring.  Asian markets, led by China, are iffy after a good run in recent months.  Then there is the Ukraine mess which is going nowhere fast as the world waits for Putin to make his next move.

Dow Jones Industrials








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Markets rise on improved housing data

Dow jumped 112, advancers over decliners almost 3-2 & NAZ rose 12.  The MLP index fell fractionally to the 477s & the REIT index was up 1+ to the 291s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries pulled back.  Oil inched higher while gold sold off.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.01%

U.S. 2-year

0.43%

U.S. 10-year

2.71%

CLM14.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 14...100.95 Up ...0.35 (0.4%)

GCJ14.CMX.....Gold Apr 14......1,293.60 Down ...7.10  (0.6%)









Contracts to purchase previously owned US homes climbed in Mar by the most in almost 3 years, showing residential real estate was starting to stabilize entering the spring selling season.  The pending home sales index rose 3.4%, the most since May 2011 & the first gain in 9 months, after a 0.5% drop in Feb (smaller than initially reported, the National Association of Realtors).  The projection called for a 1% increase.  But the gauge is 7.4% below a year earlier.  Housing demand has weakened since the middle of last year as rising prices.  Purchase contracts fell from the year prior after a 10% decrease in the 12 months that ended in Feb on an unadjusted basis.  Existing-home sales are projected to total just over 4.9M this year, less than the 5.1M in 2013.  The pending sales index was 97.4.  A reading of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity in 2001, according to the Realtors group.

Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Rise Most Since 2011


U.S. Said to Target Seven Russians, 17 Companies in New Actions
Photo:   Bloomberg

The Obama administration will sanction 7 Russians & 17 companies, including some involved in the financial, energy & infrastructure sectors.  The pres said today that the US is “moving forward with an expanded list of individuals and companies that will be affected by sanctions.  They will remain targeted. It will also focus on some areas of high-tech defense exports to Russia.”  EU representatives have discussed similar penalties.  The announcements of expanded measures came as the mayor of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city Kharkiv, was shot in the back & rushed to hospital for surgery.  It also followed the seizure of intl military inspectors by pro-Russian separatists last week.  Russia has started military exercises on Ukraine’s border where NATO says Putin is massing  40K troops in a potential preparation for invasion.  That conflicts with an Apr 17 agreement aimed at solving the standoff, according to US & EU officials.  “Later today, there will be an announcement made, and I can tell you that it builds on the sanctions that are already in place,” Obama said.  “We are going to be moving forward with an expanded list of individuals and companies that will be affected by sanctions. They will remain targeted. It will also focus on some areas of high-tech defense exports to Russia.”

U.S. Said to Sanction Seven Russians, 17 Companies


Bank of America suspended a div increase & $4B of planned share repurchases because of an error in its stress-test submission to the Federal Reserve (FED).  BAC will resubmit its proposal after saying it incorrectly adjusted for cumulative realized losses on structured notes issued by Merrill Lynch.  CEO Brian Moynihan had planned on boosting the quarterly payout to 5¢ from a penny, 5 years after the firm cut the div to a token amount during the financial crisis.  Its revised proposal will probably feature lower payouts than in its original plan.  The bank’s estimated Tier 1 capital ratio is actually 11.9% as of Mar 31, which is 21 basis points below what the company previously reported.  The Tier 1 leverage ratio was 7.4%, or 12 basis points lower.  BAC discovered the mistake last week as it prepared its 10-Q quarterly regulatory filing & immediately notified the FED.  The error had gone undetected since the firm’s acquisition of Merrill Lynch in 2009.  The bank has been working for years to resolve headaches inherited with the purchases under his predecessor of Merrill Lynch & mortgage-lender Countrywide Financial during the financial crisis.  The company this month reported a $276M deficit for Q1, its 4th quarterly loss under Moynihan.  Today’s retreat is another setback for the CEO, who has underestimated the costs tied to mortgages as he sought to return capital to shareholders.  In Mar of 2011, the company said the FED objected to its plan to raise its div.  Months earlier, Moynihan told investors, “I don’t see anything that would stop us” from raising the payout in 2011.  The stock sank 68¢.  If you would like to learn more about BAC, click on this link for Trend Analysis:
http://club.ino.com/trend/?symb=BAC&a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

BofA Halts Buyback, Dividend Increase After Finding Error in Capital Plan

Bank of America (BAC)




Stocks are having another good day.  The housing data was a good sign for an industry that not been performing well this year.  There is also merger activity, something the bulls like the see.  But Russia is on the move & nobody knows what Putin will do next.  Even with today's advance, Dow is in the red YTD.

Dow Jones Industrials