Monday, September 29, 2014

Markets pare losses as global military conflicts persist

Dow dropped 41 (cutting early losses of over 100), decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ fell 6.  The MLP index rose 2+ to the 528s & the REIT index slipped pennies in the 294s.  Junk bond funds slid back & Treasuries gained.  Oil gained for a 2nd day on speculation stronger US economic growth will boost demand for oil.  Gold inched higher from its depths.

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Citigroup (C) said the banking industry could spend as much as $10B annually in coming years to combat money laundering.  Citi has about 30K employees working on control functions, & has made “significant investments” in anti-money-laundering & know-your-customer programs, Jamie Forese, co-president, said in remarks prepared for delivery today.

Citigroup Sees $10 Billion in Annual Compliance Costs for Banks


Contracts to purchase previously owned homes declined in Aug as tighter credit & limited wage growth weigh on potential buyers.  The pending home sales index dropped 1% after a 3.2% increase in Jul, the National Association of Realtors said.  The estimate called for the index to drop 0.5%.  Stricter lending practices since the housing crisis & still-stagnant salary increases are keeping downward pressure on sales activity, particularly for those eyeing properties for the first time.  Further payrolls gains, on track for their best year since 1999, could help spur the wage pickup needed to bring more buyers into the housing market.  Purchase contracts declined 4.1% in the 12 months ending in Aug after a 2.8% annual decline in Jul, the report showed.  Aug marked the 11th month of year-over-year decreases.  The pending sales index was 104.7 on a seasonally adjusted basis.  A reading of 100 corresponds to the average level of contract activity in 2001, or “historically healthy” home-buying traffic.  Pending sales declined in 3 of 4 regions, led by a 3% drop in the Northeast.  Pending sales are considered a leading indicator because they track new purchase contracts.  Existing home sales are tabulated when a deal closes, usually a month or 2 later.

Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Fell 1% in August


Islamic State fighters seized 2 towns in western Iraq, after besieging hundreds of soldiers, according to a regional official.  He said some Iraqi troops were killed & others deserted their posts, without giving details.  Earlier the head of the Anbar council had said that at least 2 battalions of the Iraqi army (260 men) were trapped near Albu Etha, & that efforts were being made to send reinforcements & enable them to break the siege.  The clashes are taking place in a region where US led airstrikes are seeking to roll back the insurgents’ advance.  The Islamic State now controls at least half of the city of Ramadi, the provincial capital, though elsewhere in Anbar the airstrikes have enabled security forces to recapture territory.  Islamic State’s Sunni Muslim militants are reported to have carried out several massacres of troops belonging to Iraq’s Shiite-dominated army since they surged across northern parts of the country in Jun.  The Iraqi gov said last week that more than 1K soldiers were missing after an attack on a military base.  The US & its European & Arab allies have conducted thousands of air missions over Iraq & Syria since beginning a bombing campaign to counter Islamic State.  The group’s leader has declared himself the leader of a caliphate straddling the 2 nations’ frontier.  House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi called on Speaker John Boehner to initiate a debate in Congress over granting pres Obama a new authorization to use military force to defeat Islamic militants.  The the old days, this was called WAR!

Islamic State Overruns Iraq Army to Seize Towns, Official Says


There has been political unrest in Hong Kong shaking markets around the globe.  Buying late in the day shrugged off those problems, but there are still a number of hot-spots around the world.  The fighting in Ukraine drones on & the Iraq region looks like it is heating up with more US involvement.  On Wed, Nov begins & has the reputation of  having some of the worst days in stock market history.  While the Dow remains close to its record high reached a couple of weeks ago, it's also barely above where it was in Jun.  Housing data today is another reminder the recovery in the US is only stumbling along.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond fell from over 2.6% to under 2.5% in just 2 weeks, negative bets on economic stability.

Dow Jones Industrials

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Markets decline on slowdown in China's economy

Dow tumbled 95, decliners over advancers better than 3-1 & NAZ dropped 12.  The Alerian MLP index fell 1+ to the 524S & the REIT index lost 2+ to the 291s.  Junk bond funds saw selling & Treasuries rose.  Oil was lower near multi year lows & gold is still sloshing around its lows, but rose on bargain hunting

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CLF15.NYM....Crude Oil Jan 15...91.65 Down ...0.37  (0.4%)

GCQ15.CMX...Gold Aug 15....1,222.90 Up ...4.80 (0.4%)












Consumer Spending
Photo:   Bloomberg

Consumer spending in the US rebounded in Aug as further job gains encouraged households to loosen purse strings.  Purchases increased 0.5% last month after little change in Jul, according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast called for a 0.4% gain.  Incomes increased 0.3%.  Employers are cutting back on dismissals & adding to headcounts, helping underpin sentiment & sustaining the purchases that make up almost 70% of the economy.  Bigger wage gains would help provide an additional push & propel sales.  The consumption data showed that after adjusting consumer spending for inflation, which generates the figures used to calculate GDP, purchases increased 0.5% last month, the most since Mar, after a 0.1% drop in Jul.  Spending on durable goods, including automobiles, increased 1.9% after adjusting for inflation, the most in 5 months, following a 0.1% gain.  Purchases of non-durable goods, which include gasoline & clothing, rose 0.3%.  Vehicle purchases remain a source of strength for the economy.  Sales of cars and light trucks rose to a 17.5M annualized rate in Aug, the highest since Jan 2006.  Household outlays on services increased 0.4% after adjusting for inflation.  In addition to health care, the category also includes utilities, tourism, legal help & personal care items such as haircuts.  Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, rose 0.3% in Aug after adjusting for inflation.  It increased 0.1% in the prior month & was up 2.7% from Aug 2013.  The savings rate fell to 5.4% last month from 5.6% in Jul.  Wages & salaries increased 0.4%, the most in 3 months.

Consumer Spending in U.S. Climbed in August on Income Gain


Ukraine's army endured its deadliest day since signing a cease-fire with pro-Russian militants 3½ weeks ago, straining efforts to find a lasting settlement to the 6-month conflict in the nation’s east.  9 Ukrainian servicemen were killed in attacks during the last 24 hours, including an assault by a separatist tank on a gov armored personnel carrier near the airport of Donetsk, the combat zone’s largest city, a military spokesman said.  27 soldiers were wounded as troops repelled “two powerful storms” by rebel fighters, while gov forces killed 50 militants.  The latest violence challenges comments last week by pres Poroshenko that the worst of the war in his nation’s easternmost regions is over.  Ukraine is focusing on elections next month, securing gas supplies & preparing a bid for EU membership.  Russia has said it wants to normalize ties with the EU & US.  The latest death numbers are far below the daily loss of life witnessed at the peak of the war.  The conflict has killed more than 3.5K & driven at least 615K from their homes, the UN estimates.

Ukraine Army Sees Worst Day Since Truce as Battles Flare


Profits at industrial companies in China declined last month for the first time in 2 years as a slowdown in the economy deepens.  Total profits of industrial enterprises fell 0.6% from a year earlier in Aug, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said.  That compares with a 13.5% increase in Jul & is the first drop since Aug 2012.  The decrease highlights another sign of stress in the industrial sector after output growth slowed to a 5-year low.  Policymakers have eschewed broad stimulus measures to revive growth, opting for targeted easing & expedited spending.  Industrial profits in the first 8 months of the year slowed to a 10% increase from 11.7% in the first 7 months.  The lower growth last month was exacerbated by a high base last year, when Aug saw a 24.2% profit jump.  Profits were dragged by the slowdown in industrial production, weak demand & falling factory prices, NBS said.  Profit growth in the 8 months slowed in industries including steel, chemicals & electronics.  China's economy remained stuck in “low gear” in Q3, with struggling retail & residential real-estate industries countering improvements in manufacturing & transportation, a private survey showed.  Growth in investment slowed further, borrowing costs rose & the share of firms applying for & getting bank loans remained at “rock bottom levels,” according to the China Beige Book.  Recent data for Aug showed the weakest industrial-output expansion since the global financial crisis & a 40% drop in the broadest measure of new credit.  Premier Li Keqiang reiterated this month that the gov will stick to targeted easing & can’t rely on monetary stimulus to spur growth.

China Industrial Profits Drop in August as Slowdown Deepens


The consumer spending data should should have brought out buyers.  But dreary news from overseas in Ukraine & China are keeping buyers away.  Thoughts about rising interest rates are also scary for the bulls.  Junk bond funds have pulled back & the yield sensitive REIT index is at a 5 month low.  When worries outweigh helpful economic data & yield sensitive stocks decline, the stock market is in trouble.

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