Monday, March 30, 2015

Markets rally on hopes for Chinese government stimulus plans

Dow surged 263, advancers over decliners 3-1 & NAZ rose 56.  The MLP index went up 4+ to go over 430 & the REIT index added 4+ to 341.  Junk bond funds were mixed to lower & Treasuries retreated.  Oil slid to the 48s & gold also sold off.

AMJ (Alerian MP Index tracking fund)











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CLK15.NYM....Crude Oil May 15....48.64 Down ...0.23  (0.5%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Greece’s proposed plans to bolster its finances in exchange for unlocking bailout funds still need lots of work, according to European officials.  A 15-page draft, discussed yesterday, requires more information & details & was a long way from serving as the basis of a deal.  Seeking a strategy that passes muster with European officials now withholding loans as the country’s cash crunch deepens.  The gov foresees a net increase of €3.7B ($4B) in receipts this year & the biggest chunk would be as much as €875M from the “intensification of audits on lists of bank transfers and offshore entities.”  Prime Minister Tsipras was elected on a platform of easing budget cuts & restructuring debt.  While he backed away from those positions to win a Feb agreement to extend the nation’s bailout until the end of Jun, his diplomatic maneuvering & the delays in providing a detailed economic plan are frustrating the rest of the currency bloc.  Speaking to lawmakers this PM, he said he was seeking an “honorable compromise” & would not “capitulate.”  Proposal targets as much as €400M from streamlining income-tax rules & at least another €350M from auctions of television-broadcast licenses.  State asset sales would generate €1.5B this year, down from €2.2B seen in the 2015 budget prepared by the previous gov.  The primary budget surplus would be at least 1.2% of GDP, which is subject to negotiations between Greek officials & the country’s creditors.  The gov foresees between €250-400M in proceeds from “combating illegal trade on oil, tobacco and alcohol” & as much as €420M is projected from the fight against sales-tax fraud.  The list also includes social spending measures, in line with the anti-bailout coalition’s agenda with negative fiscal impact.  These include preserving pensions at their current levels at a cost of around €1B.

UnitedHealth Group, a Dow stock, agreed to buy Catamaran (CTRX) for about $12.8B to boost its pharmacy benefit business as it competes with bigger rivals.  Pharmacy benefit managers (PBM) administer drug benefits for employers & health plans & run large mail order pharmacies, helping them get better prices from drugmakers.  As employers look to cut prescription costs on expensive drugs, the deal with CTRX will give its pharmacy benefits unit, OptumRx, the scale to negotiate favorable prices in the lucrative PBM market. The offer of $61.50 per share represents a premium of 27% to Fri close.  UNH expects to fill more than 1B prescriptions after the deal.  The transaction is expected to close later in 2015 & add about 30¢ to EPS at UNH for 2016.  UNH rose 2.99 & CTRX jumped 11.51 to 59.83.  If you would like to learn more about UNH, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/UNH?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

UnitedHealth to Buy Catamaran for $12.8B

UnitedHealth (UNH)




The Saudi-led coalition that’s fighting against Shiite rebels in Yemen said it completed a blockade of the country’s ports & is ready to step up airstrikes.  Bombing missions are seeking to stop the Shiite Houthis from moving forces between Yemen’s cities.  Coalition aircraft & warships targeted the rebels as they advanced toward Aden, the southern port that’s the last stronghold of Saudi Arabia’s ally in Yemen, pres Abdurabuh Mansur Hadi.  Shipping routes to & from the ports are under the coalition’s control.  The conflict in Yemen has escalated the regional rivalry between Saudi Arabia & Iran, which has ties to the rebels.  It has further destabilized a region that holds more than half the world’s oil & is already wracked by wars in Syria & Iraq.  Saudi Arabia's coalition of 10 Sunni-led nations, includes Egypt & the UAE, seeking to halt the Houthi advance.  The rebels have seized much of the country & drove Hadi out of the capital, Sana’a, last month.  Airstrikes by the Saudi-led force began last week.  The Saudis & their allies haven’t ruled out sending ground troops to stop the Houthis.  The rebels have formed an alliance with former pres Ali Abdullah Saleh, who still commands the loyalty of parts of the army.  So far, bombing hasn’t driven the Houthis back from their positions around Aden, though they haven’t captured the city.  The Saudis say Iran is behind the rebel gains, while the Houthis accuse Hadi & his Gulf backers of collaborating with al-Qaeda’s Yemen branch.

Yemen Ports Under Blockade as Saudis Say Airstrikes to Intensify


When macro economic news is meager, hopes for more gov intervention is propelling stocks higher.  Maybe money managers are buying to make their portfolios look better at qtr end.  In the past, the idea was that improved economic conditions caused stock prices to rise.  Not today.  Dow had its best day in more than a month with a few corp deals being the only positive news.  Despite the size of this advance, it's difficult to take it seriously.  Dow remains marginally lower for the month of Mar

Dow Jones Industrials









Higher markets on hopes for stimulus in Asia

Dow shot up 247, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ gained 31. The MLP index rose 3+ to the 429s (stuck in the low end of its trading range this year) & the REIT  index went up 1+ to 338.  Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries were slightly higher.  Oil was pennies higher & gold sank further below 1200. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CLK15.NYM...Crude Oil May 15...48.34 Down .....0.53  (1.1%)

GCJ15.CMX....Gold Apr 15.......1,185.10 Down ...14.70  (1.2%)








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Consumer purchases rose less than projected in Feb, indicating the biggest part of the economy will find it hard to sustain momentum after the best qtr since 2006.  The 0.1% gain followed a 0.2% drop the prior month, according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast was for a 0.2% gain.  Adjusted for inflation, spending declined for the first time in almost a year.  Frigid temperatures & snow in much of the Northeast & Midwest last month emptied malls & auto-dealer lots as Americans huddled at home to keep warm.  While warmer weather may bring out shoppers, steady gains in payrolls have yet to foster bigger wage gains, which would help bolster spending.  Incomes climbed 0.4% in Feb for a 2nd month, propelled by a jump in divs.  The prior month’s income figure was previously reported as a 0.3% gain.  Wages & salaries increased 0.3% after a 0.6% gain in Jan.  The in purchases during Q4 will be difficult to match this qtr as American consumers decided to squirrel away the extra cash from cheaper fuel.  The saving rate increased to 5.8% last month, the highest since Dec 2012, from 5.5%.  The report also showed that adjusting consumer spending for inflation, which generates the figures used to calculate GDP, purchases declined 0.1%, the first drop since Apr, after a 0.2% increase in the previous month.  Durable goods purchases, including automobiles, decreased 1.1% after adjusting for inflation, the worst performance since Dec 2013.  Spending on non-durable goods, which include gasoline, was little changed.  The biggest surprise may have been outlays on services, which rose 0.1% after adjusting for inflation, the smallest gain since Jul.  The category includes utilities, so economists were projecting a jump to help offset the weaker readings elsewhere.  Americans, especially those living in the east, felt the pinch from higher heating bills that came due this month.  23 states had a top-10 coldest Feb & 9 had their 2nd-coldest

Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises Less Than Forecast


Greek Prime Minister Tsipras, facing euro-area demands for a credible economic plan, is fending off allies at home who are spoiling for a fight.  With the premier due to address parliament amid a deepening cash crunch, a pair of his ministers warned against retreating from election promises to end austerity.  Adding to the confusion, Euclid Tsakalotos, intl economic-affairs minister, said Greece won’t abandon its anti-austerity philosophy in return for aid.  He spoke as talks were taking place in Brussels over the reform measures.  Greece wants a deal but will go its own way “in the event of a bad scenario,” he said.

Tsipras Presses Allies for Support as Greek Cash Crunch Deepens


More Americans than forecast signed contracts to purchase previously owned homes in Feb, indicating a pickup in the housing market ahead of the spring selling season.  The index of pending sales increased 3.1% to 106.9, the highest since Jun 2013, after a 1.2% gain the prior month that was smaller than initially estimated, according to the National Association of Realtors.  The forecast called for a 0.3% rise.  Employment gains & rising rents encouraged buyers to take advantage of cheap borrowing costs even as some contended with frigid weather.  Stronger wage growth & an increase in the number of homes for sale would help provide an additional boost for the market this spring, when buying interest typically heats up.  “Pending sales showed solid gains last month, driven by a steadily improving labor market, mortgage rates hovering around 4 percent and the likelihood of more renters looking to hedge against increasing rents,” the NAR said.  “These factors bode well for the prospect of an uptick in sales in coming months.”  2 of 4 regions saw an increase, reflecting an 11.6% jump in the Midwest & a 6.6% gain in the West.  The index increased 12% on an unadjusted basis versus a year earlier, after a 6.1% gain in the prior 12-month period.  It was projected to climb 8.7%.

Pending Sales of U.S. Homes Rose More Than Forecast in February


News remains drab, but hopes are high for stimulus, especially in China.  The Greek drama plays out with no resolution in sight.  Yemen descends into chaos as Saudi Arabia is fighting to restore a sense of order.  Fri brings the big jobs report (for Mar) & that should bring good jobs numbers as in recent months.  Then comes Q1 earnings.  Hard to believe, but buyers are firmly in command of the markets today.,

Dow Jones Industrials