Monday, June 29, 2015

Markets collapse from global debt crises

Dow sank 350 (closing at the lows), decliners over advancers almost 10-1 & NAZ lost dropped 122 to go under 5K.  The MLP index tumbled a very big 7 to the 399s (another new multi year low) & the REIT index fell 5 to the 303s.  Junk bond funds also saw selling & Treasuries gained as stocks declined.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury went down 14 basis points to 2.33%.  Oil is below 61 & gold continued flattish.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)









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CLQ15.NYM....Crude Oil Aug 15....58.54 Down ...1.09  (1.8%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]



Greece moved to check the growing strains on its crippled financial system on Sun, closing its banks & imposing capital controls that brought the prospect of being forced out of the euro into plain sight.  After bailout talks between the leftwing gov & foreign lenders broke down at the weekend, the ECB froze vital funding support to Greece's banks, leaving it with little choice but to shut down the system to keep the banks from collapsing.  Banks will be closed & the stock market shut all week, & there will be a daily €60 limit on cash withdrawals from cash machines, which will reopen tomorrow.  Capital controls are likely to last for many months at least.  "The more calmly we deal with difficulties, the sooner we can overcome them and the milder their consequences will be," a somber-looking Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said.  He promised bank deposits would be safe & salaries paid.  Even as Tsipras spoke late on Sun, lines forming at petrol stations & in front of the dwindling number of bank machines that still contained cash highlighted the scale of the disaster facing Greeks, who have endured more than 6 years of economic decline.  The failure to reach a deal with creditors leaves Greece set to default on €1.6B in loans from the IMF that fall due tomorrow & it must also repay billions of €s to the ECB in the coming months.

Amid Crisis, Greece Imposes Capital Controls


Prices on Puerto Rico’s newest general obligations sank to record lows after Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla said investors should be prepared to sacrifice if they want the island’s economy to grow.  General obligations maturing in 2035 traded as low as 68.5¢ on the dollar, down from an average of 77.3¢ on Fri & the weakest since they were first issued at 93¢ in Mar 2014.  With 2 days left in Puerto Rico’s fiscal year, the commonwealth is struggling to pass a budget that would allow it to make payments on a $72B debt load.  Investors should work with the commonwealth to reduce its obligations, Garcia Padilla said.  “The debt is not payable,” he said.  “There is no other option.”  A report commissioned by the island suggests that Puerto Rico swap current debt to delay maturities.  The US territory of 3½M is grappling with a jobless rate double the national average & a debt load bigger than every US state except California & NY.  The territory’s House of Representatives & Senate last week passed differing budget bills for the fiscal year starting Jul 1, with negotiations between the 2 chambers continuing.  Under the proposals, about 15% of the $9.8B budget would go to debt service.  Puerto Rico’s cash crunch is intensifying.  A group of former IMF officials recommend that Puerto Rico should voluntarily exchange old bonds for new ones with later maturities & lower debt payments.  “There is no U.S. precedent for anything of this scale and scope, and there is the added complication of extensive pledging of specific revenue streams to specific debts,” the they wrote.  “But difficult or not, the projections are clear that the issue can no longer be avoided.”  The US Congress should allow Puerto Rico entities to file for Chap 9 bankruptcy protection, & an independent oversight board could help improve the island’s finances, the authors wrote.

Puerto Rico Bonds Tumble After Governor's Warning


General Electric, a Dow stock, deals to sell the bulk of its vehicle fleet-management business push the company near a goal of unloading at least $20B of finance assets before the qtr ends.  Canada’s Element Financial will acquire GE Capital’s fleet assets in the US, Mexico, Australia & New Zealand for $6.9B.  GE also said that it signed a provisional accord with Arval, a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, to sell the European portions of the leasing operations.  The agreements represent about $8.6B in assets, excluding cash & some liabilities, & come less than a month after GE sold its $11B US private-equity lending business to Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.  GE executives said last month they expect to announce $20-$30B of asset sales before the end of Jun.  “We continue to demonstrate speed and execution on our strategy to sell most of the assets of GE Capital,” the unit’s CEO, Keith Sherin, said.  “This announcement is the next step in GE’s transformation to a more focused industrial company.”  GE Capital has said its top sale priorities are unloading units that finance health-care businesses & foreign buyouts.  GE plans to shed about $200B of lending assets to refocus on industrial operations after GE Capital’s struggles during the 2008 financial crisis.  It will retain divisions that support manufacturing -- including aircraft leasing, a boost for jet-engine production -- while unloading the fleet unit & similar businesses.  GE Capital has announced about $63B in sales to date & the company remains “on track” to sell about $100B by the end of the year & be mostly done in 2016, Sherin said.  The stock lost 45¢.  If you would like to learn more about GE, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

GE Nears $20 Billion Asset-Sale Target

General Electric (GE)



There is a lot going on with the chaos in markets all over the globe.  Among the many unknowns are how the chaos will affect raising US interest rates which is expected to begin this year, probably in Sep.  If is difficult to think about that with so many immediate disasters to deal with today.  Dow is down 200 YTD & is clearly on defense.

Dow Jones Industrials









Markets tumble on Greek debt disaster and Chinese market collapse

Dow dropped 157, decliners over advancers more than 4-1 & NAZ was off 50.  The MLP index lost 3+ to the 403s (another multi year low) & the REIT index inched higher in the 308s.  Junk bond funds were lower & Treasuries also retreated.  Oil fell below 59 & gold continued in its flattish trading zone.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CLQ15.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 15...58.63 Down ...1.00  (1.7%)

GCN15.CMX...Gold Jul 15........1,174.00 Up ...1.10 (0.1%)











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Angela Merkel & Francois Hollande signaled they’ve reached the limits of their ability to safeguard Greece, offering the gov no further concessions to step back from the brink.  The leaders of Europe’s 2 biggest economies gave little reason for hope to Greeks who found their banks shut & capital controls imposed as the gov took steps to avert the collapse of its financial system.  Global stocks & Greek bonds tumbled as Prime Minister Tsipras’s decision to hold a Jul 5 referendum on the terms attached to rescue aid increased the risk that Greece will exit the euro.  Merkel & Hollande, who have repeatedly said they want to hold the euro together, gave the Greek premier no leeway after he broke off negotiations over future bailout aid.  Hollande suggested the referendum would determine whether Greece could stay in the 19-nation euro area, while Merkel said Europe’s credibility was at stake with its response.  “If the euro fails, Europe will fail,” Merkel said.  “That’s why we have to fight for these principles. We could maybe set them aside in the short term. We could maybe say we’ll just give in. But I say: in the medium and long term, we will suffer damage that way.”  Tsipras, who promised to return “dignity” to the people & reject budget cuts imposed by creditors, appealed for “calm” after weekend-long queues at ATMs & gas stations.  The bank controls followed a weekend of turmoil that started with Tsipras’s shock announcement late Fri of a Jul 5 referendum on austerity.  People rushed to line up at ATMs & gas stations after the breakdown of aid talks & a ECB decision to freeze its lifeline to Greek banks.  “In the coming days, what’s needed is patience and composure,” Tsipras said on television.  “The bank deposits of the Greek people are fully secure. The same applies to the payment of wages and pensions -- they are also guaranteed.”

Merkel, Hollande Turn Away From Greece


Chinese stocks tumbled, sending the benchmark index into a bear market, as signs of an exodus by leveraged investors overshadowed the central bank’s effort to revive confidence with an interest-rate cut.  The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.3% to 4053, taking declines from its Jun 12 peak to more than 20%.  The gauge swung between a loss of 7.6% & a gain of 2.5% in Mon trading, recording the biggest intraday point move in 23 years.  The retreat marks an end to the nation’s longest bull market, a rally that’s lured record numbers of individual investors & convinced traders to bet an unprecedented amount of borrowed money on further gains.  China’s interest-rate cut, along with assurances from the securities regulator that risks from margin trading are controllable, failed to ease concern that speculators are unwinding their positions.  Losses spread to Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng Index sinking 2.6%.  Margin investors have been forced to liquidate holdings & the recent selloff spurs more mutual fund redemptions.  Margin debt on the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell for a 5th day, the longest stretch of declines in one year.  Regulators are considering suspending IPOs to stabilize the tumbling stock markets.  The Shanghai gauge had surged more than 150% in the 12 months prior to its Jun 12 peak as investors speculated monetary stimulus would revive the weakest economic expansion in more than 2 decades.  The PBOC cut the one-year lending rate to 4.85% & lowered reserve ratios for some lenders including city commercial & rural commercial banks by 50 basis points.  The doubling in China’s main indexes in the past year coincided with the weakest economic growth in a qtr century.  China’s bull market, which turned 935 days old Fri, had been the longest since bourses opened for trading in 1990 & more than 5 times the average lifespan of the nation’s previous bull markets.

Contracts to purchase previously owned Us homes rose in May to a 9-year high, indicating recent strength in the real-estate industry will be sustained.  The pending home sales index increased 0.9% to 112.6, the highest since Apr 2006, after a revised 2.7% advance in the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors.  The projection called for the gauge to climb 1%.  Employment growth, a pickup in incomes & relatively low borrowing costs are helping lure buyers, including those making their first foray into the market.  Progress in residential real estate & more construction will further fuel the economy after a weak start to the year.  Purchase contracts rose 8.3% in the 12 months ended in May, on an unadjusted basis, after a 12.6% gain in Apr.  A reading of 100 in the pending sales gauge corresponds to the average level of contract activity in 2001, or “historically healthy” home-buying traffic.  “The steady pace of solid job creation seen now for over a year has given the housing market a boost this spring,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said.  Relatively low borrowing costs are still supporting would-be buyers who can qualify for credit.  The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.02% in latest week.  While that’s the 2nd-highest rate this year, it’s below the average 4.17% for all of 2014.  Sustained job gains and signs of a pickup in wage growth are helping to keep homebuilders & home-improvement retailers upbeat about business prospects.

Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Increased 0.9% in May


The stock market is turning very ugly as the Greek debt mess becomes reality & the Chinese stock market collapses.  US economic data, means little & that has been inconsistent with nothing to write home about for months.  Dow is back in the red YTD although NAZ is hanging in above 5K so far.  Very tough times lie ahead for the stock market.

Dow Jones Industrials