Thursday, July 30, 2015

Markets waffle after GDP data and earnings

Dow lost 5 (closing near the highs), advancers & decliners were even & NAZ went up 17.  The MLP index dropped a big 6 to the 385s after strength in the last week & the REIT index fell 1+ to the 316s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries gained, bringing lower yields.  Oil & gold saw more selling today.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)











CLU15.NYM....Crude Oil Sep 15....48.60 Down ...0.19  (0.4%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]



The IMF can participate in discussions over the latest financial rescue for Greece but cannot officially join the talks until after the fiscally beleaguered nation has agreed to comprehensive reforms, according to a leaker.  A confidential report said that IMF staff had determined that while the Fund could participate in negotiations aimed at providing a 3rd round of relief to Greece, the country was disqualified for any IMF bailout given its high debt levels & poor reform record.   The decision means that an IMF decision on any further bailout for Greece could stretch for months & possibly into 2016 & raises questions about whether it will ultimately join euro zone efforts.  The EU, led by Germany & the IMF had agreed on a new €86B aid package to keep Greece afloat, & negotiations on the package were continuing today. The Greek gov is seeking to wrap up negotiations in time for a major debt payment due on Aug 20.  Germany's representative to the IMF board said that it wanted the Fund to move alongside European efforts & without it's parallel efforts now faced having to push through the bailout on its own in just weeks.

Report: IMF Says Fund Can't Join Greek Bailout Talks


Whole Foods cut its sales forecast for the year after its quarterly profit & sales fell short of expectations amid intensifying competition.  The company said sales in existing stores edged up 1.3% for the 3-month period ending Jul 5.  That's below from the 3.9% increase in the year-ago period.  In the current qtr so far, the company said sales were up just 0.6%.  For the full fiscal year, WFM expects sales at established locations to rise in the low single digits, down from the previous forecast of growth in the low- to mid-single digits.  The company is trying to find new ways to drive up sales as organic foods become more widely available.  At the same time, it's also trying to appeal to a broader audience by shaking its "Whole Paycheck" image & offering more affordable prices.  "In this rapidly changing marketplace, we believe we are taking the necessary steps to positions ourselves for the longer term," co-CEO Walter Robb said.  In May, the company said it would open a new chain of smaller stores with lower prices starting next year.  To emphasize the affordability, the chain will be named after the company's 365 house brands.  For the 3rd quarter ended Jul 5, EPS was 43¢, missing the forecast of 45¢.  Total revenue was $3.63B, also short the forecast of $3.7B.  The stock tumbled 4.74 (12%).  If you would like to learn more about WFM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/WFM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Whole Foods Growth Cool in Fiscal 3Q, Stock Falls

Whole Foods (WFM)



ConocoPhillips lost $179M in Q2, after booking a profit in the same period last year, as a sizable drop in oil prices weighed on the energy company's results.  Oil prices have plunged globally over the past year, & the company said that its total realized price per barrel of oil equivalent was down 44% in Q2 to $39.09.  That compares to $70.17 last year, when the company earned $2.08B.  EPS, adjusted for asset impairment costs & pretax expenses, came to 7¢, above expectations of 5¢.  COP countered some of the hit from oil prices by cutting expenses.  Operating costs fell 11% to $2.16B.  The energy company posted revenue of $8.66B, down from $14.7B a year ago.  The stock was down 83¢.  If you would like to learn more about WFM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/WFM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

ConocoPhillips reports 2Q loss but tops Street expectations

ConocoPhillips (COP)



An abundance of mixed signals were confusing to traders.  Earnings from COP was not a surprise, but when the news hits a dose of reality was a shock.  Other earnings, like Dow stock P&G (PG), were also depressing.  The GDP data, while in line with expectations, did little to encourage new investing.  Revising prior year's data lower, showing slower GDP growth during the recovery, weighed on the markets.  Dow remains in the red & on defense.

Dow Jones Industrials






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Markets slide lower after GDP report & earnings

Dow dropped 56, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ lost 20.  The MLP index fell 4+ to the 387s & the REIT index was down 1 to the 316s.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries were flattish.  Oil & gold were little changed at their depressed levels.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CLU15.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 15...48.71 Down ...0.08  (0.2%)

GCU15.CMX...Gold Sep 15.....1,090.20 Down ...2.60  (0.2%)











The US economy expanded at a faster pace in Q2 & managed to eke out a gain at the start of the year, painting a picture of incremental progress consistent with the Federal Reserve’s view.  GDP rose at a 2.3% annualized rate, & a revised 0.6% advance in Q1 wiped out a previously reported contraction, according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast called for a 2.5% gain.  Consumer spending grew more than projected, & price increases accelerated.  The economy has moved beyond some of the early 2015 constraints including weather & port delays, while cooling global markets, a strong dollar & insufficient wage gains may continue to limit growth.  Fed officials, considering when to begin raising rates this year, concluded yesterday that the US is making progress.  The Commerce Dept also issued its annual revisions, updating the data back thru 2012.  The economic expansion over the past 3 years was weaker than initially projected, with the biggest revision coming in 2013.  From the end of 2011 to the end of 2014, the economy expanded at a 2.1% annualized rate, compared to the 2.4% pace reported before. GDP grew 1.5% in 2013, the weakest since the throes of recession in 2009, compared with a previously reported 2.2% gain.  Business spending remained a sore spot, with investment excluding housing falling at a 0.6% rate, the worst performance since the Q3-2012.  Gov outlays were another source of weakness, rising just 0.8% after dropping 0.1% in Q1.  A 2% gain among state local agencies was almost wiped out by a 1.1% drop at the federal level.  2 normally large swing factors, trade a& inventories, were fairly stable last qtr & had little influence on growth.  The GDP report also showed price pressures picked up.  A measure of inflation, which is tied to consumer spending & strips out food & energy costs, climbed at a 1.8% annualized pace compared with 1% gains in the prior 2 qtrs.

U.S. GDP Rises 2.3% in Second Quarter; First Quarter Revised Upward


Applications for US unemployment benefits rose last week after reaching a 4-decade low in the prior week, consistent with a stronger labor market.  Jobless claims increased 12K to 267K, from 255K the prior week (the lowest since 1973), according to the Labor Dept.  The forecast called for 270K.  The 4-week moving average, a less-volatile measure of job cuts, declined.  Dismissals holding below 300K & sustained hiring would help convince Federal Reserve policy makers that the economy can withstand an increase in the benchmark interest rate.  The 4-week average, a less volatile measure than the weekly numbers, decreased to 274K from 278K.  The number continuing to receive jobless benefits rose 46K to 2.26M & the unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits climbed to 1.7% from 1.6%.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Climbed Last Week From Four-Decade Low


Procter & Gamble, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, gave muted guidance for its new fiscal year, as sales fell 9.2% in the Jun qtr on volume decreases & the company booked a big charge related to an accounting change for its Venezuela operations.  For the year ending in 2016, the company expects EPS to be in a range of "slightly below" last year's $3.77 "to up mid-single digits."  It forecast organic sales that are in-line to up low-single digits.  Analysts had called for EPS of $4.18.  PG also said it sees foreign exchange cutting into overall sales by 4-5 percentage points.  The stock sank 3.08.  If you would like to learn more about PG, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PG?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Procter & Gamble Gives a Muted Outlook

Procter & Gamble (PG)



Stocks are meandering again as they have been doing for all of 2015.  The GDP report was uninspiring, as expected, & earnings remain drab.  After strength in recent days, MLPs are seeing more selling.  Oil at these levels hurts them.  It's that simple.  Junk bond funds remain  under pressure with the threat of rising interest rates.  Dow is down YTD & on defense.

Dow Jones Industrials

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