Thursday, December 29, 2016

Markets waver with one day left in 2016

Dow was off 13 advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ fell 6.  The MLP index was fractionally lower to the 314s & the REIT index climbed 3+ to the 336s.  Junk bond funds were a little higher & Treasuries were finally purchased.  Oil was down chump change in the 53s (near yearly highs) & gold advanced to the mid 1100s (more on both below).

Dow Jones Industrials






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Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Oil futures ended lower, snapping a 4-day win streak after weekly data showed a rise in US crude inventories.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Feb delivery fell 29¢ (0.5%) to close at $53.77 a barrel.  Oil attempted to turn higher after the Energy Information Administration reported a 600K barrel rise in inventories last week but soon returned to negative territory.

Oil Settles Lower After Rise In U.S. Crude Inventories


Gold futures closed at their highest level in just over 2 weeks as a leading dollar index pulled off of 14-year highs.  Gold for Feb delivery rose $16.80 (1.5%) to $1157 ounce, its 4th straight advance.  Gold remains down about 1.4% for Dec.

Gold Futures Extend Rally o Fourth Session, Close Up 1.5%


Long-term US mortgage rates edged up this week to the highest levels in more than 2 years.  Investors are bidding up rates under the belief that inflation & economic growth will rise with the incoming Trump administration.  Long-term mortgage rates have risen 9 straight weeks.


Current avg Last week 52-week high 52-week low
30-year fixed 4.32% 4.30% 4.32% 3.41%
15-year fixed 3.55% 3.52% 3.55% 2.72%
5-year adjustable 3.30% 3.32% 3.32% 2.68%

 

US mortgage rates rise to highest level in more than 2 years


After the rough start in Jan, the Dow is up 1.9K in 2016, much of that after Trump's election.  Since the presidential election, the S&P 500 has unexpectedly pulled ahead of global peers.  Fueling the optimism, Trump has promised to enact economic policies, such as a $1T infrastructure spending spree, diminished regulation on industry like the financial sector & corp tax cuts to encourage growth.  Enthusiasm in the US stock market has diminished since mid Dec.  The new month (year) will provide the test to show if the rally has legs.

Dow Jones Industrials









Marjkets fluctuate on light holiday volume

Dow lost 7, advancers over decliners better than 3-2 & NAZ also lost 7.  The MLP index was flat in the 315s & the REIT index went up 2 to the 334s.  Junk bond funds were up a little & Treasuries were higher.  Oil was off a tad & gold was slightly higher.

Dow Jones Industrials


Crude Oil Feb 17

Gold Futures,Feb-2017








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Filings for US unemployment benefits fell for a 3rd week in the last 4, showing a resilient labor market.  Jobless claims declined 10K to 265K from a 6-month high in the prior period, according to the  Labor Dept.  The number of applications matched the forecast.  Filings have been below 300K for 95 straight weeks, the longest streak since 1970 & a level typical for a healthy labor market.  The 4-week average of claims fell to 263K from 264K the prior week.  The number continuing to receive jobless benefits climbed 63K to 2.1M, the highest since Sep 10.  The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits held at 1.5%.


Oil prices steadied after a surprise increase in US inventories helped stall an upward trend that has pushed global crude benchmarks to their highest levels since Jul last year.  US light crude was down 20¢ at $53.86.  Traded volumes were thin with many investors away for year-end holidays.  Crude oil benchmarks have made big gains this month since OPEC & other producers agreed to curb production.  Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) late on Wed showed a 4.2M barrel increase in US crude stocks in the latest week.  The forecast called for a decline of 2.1M barrels.  But the overall trend appeared to be upwards with oil producers committed to agreed output cuts.

U.S. Crude Price Falls on Surprise Supply Rise

Stocks are having another lackluster day.  Not much going on & tomorrow looks to be an even slower day.

Dow Jones Industrials

stock chart