Monday, February 27, 2017

Markets crawl higher as Trump proposes to cut spending to agencies while increasing defense spending

Dow rose 15 (closing near the highs) to another record, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ gained 16.  The MLP index fell 1+ to the 325s & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 354s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were sold, bringing lower bond prices.  Oil was up pennies & gold slid back slightly.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)






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Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Contracts to buy previously owned US homes unexpectedly declined in Jan as higher mortgage rates, elevated prices & a limited number of listings pushed the index to a one-year low, according to the National Association of Realtors.  Pending home sales gauge dropped 2.8% (forecast was for 0.6% advance), the most since May, to a one-year low of 106.4.  Contract signings rose 0.8% in Dec, revised down from a previously reported 1.6% gain.  Index increased 2.7% from Jan 2016 on an unadjusted basis.  Pending sales decreased in the Midwest & West.  Pending home sales, which reflect contract signings, declined in Jan as affordability became an issue for potential buyers.  A pickup in mortgage rates since the election, higher home prices & fewer properties to choose from are limiting progress in residential real estate.  At the same time, steadily increasing wages & a growing economy remain sources of support.  “The significant shortage of listings last month along with deteriorating affordability as the result of higher home prices and mortgage rates kept many would-be buyers at bay,” the NAR said.  “Last month’s retreat in contract signings indicates that activity will likely be choppy in coming months as buyers compete for the meager number of listings in their price range.”  The NAR projects 5.57M sales of previously owned homes this year, an increase of 2.2%.


Pres Trump is seeking what he called a "historic" increase in military spending of more than 9%, a huge rise even as the US has wound down major wars in Iraq & Afghanistan & remains the world's strongest military power.  He will seek to boost Pentagon spending in the next fiscal year by $54B in his first budget proposal & slash the same amount from non-defense spending, including a large reduction in foreign aid.  The pres does not have the final say on federal spending.  His plan for the military is part of a budget proposal to Congress, which, while it is controlled by the Reps, will not necessarily follow his plans.  Budget negotiations with lawmakers can take months to play out.  Trump told state governors at the White House that his budget plan includes a "historic increase in defense spending to rebuild the depleted military of the United States of America."  "This is a landmark event and message to the world in these dangerous times, of American strength, security and resolve. We must ensure that our courageous servicemen and women have the tools they need to deter war and when called upon to fight in our name, only do one thing: Win," he said.  Officials familiar with the proposal said the defense increase would be financed partly by cuts to the State Dept, Environmental Protection Agency & other non-defense programs.  “We’re going to do more with less and make the government lean and accountable to the people," Trump added.  Such a military spending hike would be unusual given that the US is not engaged in a major war, although its special forces & Air Force are active against Islamic State in Iraq & Syria.  An official said Trump's request included more money for shipbuilding, military aircraft & establishing "a more robust presence in key international waterways and choke points" such as the Strait of Hormuz & South China Sea.  Defense spending in the most recent fiscal year was $584 & the next fiscal year starts in Oct.

Trump Seeks 'Historic' Increase of 9% in U.S. Military's Budget

General Motors boosted incentives on its pickup models this month after its biggest foes gained ground, intensifying a price war within the auto market's most hotly contested segment.  Discounts averaged about $7K for the Chevrolet Silverado & $5.3K for the GMC Sierra this month.  Incentives on GM's models surged 56% & 82%, respectively, from a year earlier as the competition dialed back spending.  The pickup segment is among the most profitable within the global automotive industry, giving carmakers room to offer deals & motivation to make market-share grabs.  At the same time, fierce brand loyalty among truck owners means that automakers have to offer bigger deals to entice them to switch models.  The boost in incentive activity also reflects the US auto market slowing following a 7-year streak of expansion.  The deals from GM are part of a Truck Month promotion that includes offers for about 25% off the sticker price of some 2016 Sierra pickups ($11K discounts) for select 2017 Silverado models.  The offers follow sales declines in Jan for both of GM's full-size truck models while competition pickups gained.  The stock went up 37¢.  If you would like to learn more about GM click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

GM Dials Up Profit-Sapping Pickup Discounts as Rivals Gain

General Motors (GM)



Trump wants to reduce federal spending after increasing the budget for defense.  That will shake up a lot of those guys in DC, since lower spending means some employees will be let go.  Of course, this is just talk.  The House controls spending..  But the Reps have a solid majority there & his ideas will get a lot of attention.  The stock market likes what it hears.  Dow first crossed 20K a month ago & at today's new record it's about 150 below 21K.  There is an enormous amount of pressure on Trump & the Reps.  They are expected to deliver on these current promises, & fast!!  2 key ones are for a replacement of ObamaCare & then new & lower taxes.  Investors are happy today, but the the stock market remains vastly overbought, needing a correction to weed out timid stockholders.

Dow Jones Industrials

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Markets little changed ahead of Trump's address to Congress tomorrow

Dow gave back 10, advancers  over decliners about 3-2 & NAZ was off 4.  The MLP index dropped 1 to the 325s & the REIT index was fractionally higher in the 353s (closing in on its records highs).  Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries were sold.  Oil rose (more below) & gold prices were flattish at 1258.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures,A

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Orders for US durable goods rebounded in Jan, a sign companies remained upbeat at the start of the year.  Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years rose 1.8% after a 0.8% decrease in Dec, Commerce Dept data showed.  Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, unexpectedly fell 0.4% after a 1.1% jump in the prior month (larger than previously estimated).  Before Jan, demand for business equipment had shown marked improvement as companies grew more upbeat about the economy's prospects & global markets began recovering.  Faster growth, along with corp tax reform & reduced regulations may spur investment, which has been a laggard during the current economic expansion.  Even with the latest decline, bookings for capital equipment increased at an 8.9% annualized pace over the 3 months ended in Jan, the fastest since 2014.  Such investment includes machinery, computers & communications gear.  The forecast for total durable goods called for a 1.6% gain.  Shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, used in calculating GDP, fell 0.6% after rising 1.6%.  The report also showed bookings for commercial aircraft jumped 69.9% after a 9.3% increase.  Excluding transportation equipment, which is often volatile from month to month, orders fell 0.2% after a 0.9% gain.  They were projected to climb 0.5%.  Orders for military capital equipment rose 8% & demand for non-defense durable goods increased 1.5%.

Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Rebounded 1.8% in January

China's blue chips posted their biggest single-day loss in 2 months after the securities regulator vowed to step up its campaign against speculation & hinted about loosening its grip on new share offerings.  The blue-chip CSI300 index fell 0.8% to 3446, its sharpest drop since Dec 23, while the Shanghai Composite Index also weakened 0.8% to 3228.  The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said that the country will focus on stable development of its capital markets this year.  But limiting or halting initial share sales in order to stabilize the secondary market doesn't "solve the problems of long-term healthy development of capital markets," he added, stirring worries of increasing equity supply this year.  The remarks followed a regulator's move over the weekend to punish the insurance unit of financial conglomerate Baoneng Group for speculative trading & a 3.48B yuan ($506M) penalty on an investor for market misbehavior.

China Blue Chips Post Worst Day in 2 Months


Oil prices rose as investors showed record confidence in prices rising further, though gains were capped by the prospect of faster growth in US oil production.  US West Texas Intermediate added 47¢ to $54.46.  Investors raised their bets on rising Brent crude oil prices to a new high last week, breaking the 500,000-lot mark for the first time.  Money managers also raised their bullish US crude futures & options positions in the latest week to the highest on record.  Investors now hold 951K lots' worth of crude futures & options, equivalent to nearly 1B barrels of oil & valued at more than $52B.  Among the risks is the level of compliance to the deal between OPEC & other producers to bring down oil output by about 1.8M barrels per day (bpd).  OPEC's record compliance with the deal has surprised the market & the biggest laggards, the United Arab Emirates & Iraq, have pledged to catch up with their targets.  The International Energy Agency put OPEC's average compliance at a record 90% in Jan.  Based production surveys, compliance now stands at 88%.  Looming over the success of the deal is the reaction of US shale producers to rising prices & their ability to increase output.  US drillers added 5 oil rigs last week to 602, the most since Oct 2015.  Over the past 2 weeks the US implied shale oil rig count went up by 15.

Oil Gains as Bullish Bets on Rising Prices Hit Record High

Tomorrow evening Trump will address Congress.  Among many topics, the ones getting the most attention will be on repealing ObamaCare & his tax plan.  The general idea on taxes will be to simplify the form to only 3 tax brackets that will reduce taxes & lower corp taxes.  Plans to pay for these changes are unclear presently.  Traders will likely take a rest, as they wait to hear what he has to say.  But the popular stock averages remain essentially at record highs.

Dow Jones Industrials