Friday, July 28, 2017

Markets fluctuate after earnings and North Korea missile launch

Dow gained 33 to another record, advancers over decliners about 5-4 & NAZ lost 7.  The MLP index was fractionally lower to the 297s & the REIT index was off a fraction to the 353s.  Junk bond funds rose & Treasuries went higher.  Oil advanced & gold continues in demand (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





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North Korea test-fired its 2nd intercontinental missile within a month today, a provocation that heightens pressure on the US & China to find ways to reign in Kim Jong Un's nuclear ambitions.  The Pentagon's assessment is the projectile is another ICBM that traveled about 1K kilometers (621 miles).  South Korea's presidential office also said it believed the latest missile was an ICBM.    Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said the missile, which was launched late tonight, flew for about 45 minutes & landed in the country's exclusive economic zone.  South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said it reached an altitude of about 3700 kilometers, which is nearly 1K kilometers higher than the Jul 4 test.  The launch showed progress toward a missile capable of hitting US cities such as Denver or Chicago.  South Korean Pres Moon Jae-in's office said he'd ordered a show of force in response to North Korea’s actions, including a joint US ballistic missile test & called for talks with the US to consider the deployment of more Thaad launchers to South Korea.   Moon previously put the roll out of further components of the missile shield on ice pending an environmental impact study.

North Korea Test-Fires Second ICBM of Month in New Provocation

Gold prices settled at their highest level since mid-Jun, up 1.1% for the week, as reports of another missile test in North Korea & further weakness in the $ boosted investment demand for the precious metal.  August gold added $8.40 (0.7%) to settle at $1268 an ounce, making for its 3rd weekly gain in a row.

Gold Marks Highest Finish Since Mid-June, Up 1.1% For The Week


The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the US increased by 8 this week to 958.  A year ago, just 463 rigs were active.  Baker Hughes said that 766 rigs sought oil & 192 explored for natural gas this week.  Among major oil- and gas-producing states, New Mexico gained 4 rigs, Oklahoma increased by 3 & Louisiana, Ohio, West Virginia & Wyoming each gained 1.  Texas declined by 1 rig.  The rig count peaked at 4530 in 1981 & bottomed out in May of 2016 at 404.

US rig count increases by 8 this week to 958

Oil prices rose to 2-month highs, putting crude on track for the strongest weekly percentage gains this year as investors continued to digest signs of easing oversupply.  US crude & gasoline inventories fell much more steeply than expected in the latest week.  US refineries processed an average of almost 17.3M barrels of crude per day last week, up 620K bpd from the same week in 2016.  The world's biggest oil exporter Saudi Arabia said it would further reduce oil output in Aug.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 57¢ at $49.61 a barrel, after also touching a 2-month peak of $49.78 a barrel.  Oil futures posted the biggest weekly percentage gains this year with a rise of more than 8%.

Oil jumps to 2-month high, heads for biggest weekly rise of 2017

The cost of employing the average US worker rose 0.5% in Q2 but showed little acceleration despite the tightest labor market in years.  The forecst called for a 0.6% gain in the employment cost index. (ECI) Still, there's little evidence of a broad upswing in the cost of labor.  Over the past 12 months, employment costs have risen an unadjusted 2.4%, the gov said.  That's just a touch higher than the 2.3% rate one year earlier.  The ECI reflects how much companies, govs & nonprofit institutions pay their employees in wages & benefits.  Wages, 70% of employment costs, rose 0.5% in Q2 & benefits climbed 0.6%.

U.S. Employment Costs Rise 0.5% In 2nd Quarter, ECI Shows


The Dow advanced but the rest of the market was sluggish.  Earnings are coming in less than impressive & the North Korea missle launch was another damper for the stock market.  Then there is the confusion in DC which is going from bad to worse.  Hard to believe it can get worse.  Even if those guys work on tax reform, that will not go smoothly.  No wonder gold continues in demand.

Dow Jones Industrials

 








Markets drift lower as Amazon disappoints

Dow lost 7, advancers just ahead of decliners & NAZ gave back 26.  The MLP index inched higher in the 298s & the REIT index was up a fraction to the 355s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries did not budge in price.  Oil rose in the 49s & gold advanced 6 to 1272.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil49.40
0.360.7%

GC=FGold   1,271.20
4.700.4%








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Pickups in consumer & business-equipment spending powered a US economic rebound in Q2, signaling the 8-year expansion is on track to be sustained, Commerce Dept figures showed.  GDP rose at a 2.6% annualized rate from prior qtr (est. 2.7%) & Q1 growth was revised to 1.2% from 1.4%.  Consumer spending, biggest part of the economy, grew 2.8% (matching est.) after 1.9% gain.  Nonresidential fixed investment climbed 5.2%. Trade added to growth as exports rose faster than imports; inventories were slight drag.  The results confirm that the slowdown at the start of 2017 was temporary & show an economy growing in H1 at about a 1.9%  rate, compared with the expansion's 2.2% average pace thru the end of 2016.  Consumer spending led the rebound, helped by a steady job market & household finances boosted by stock & home-equity gains.  Disposable incomes, adjusted for inflation, posted the best back-to-back qtrs since H1-2015.  Business investment in equipment rose at an 8.2% pace, the most in almost 2 years, signaling companies are optimistic about demand in the US as well as in overseas markets.  The overall pace of nonresidential investment eased from 7.2% amid a slowdown in the structures category that followed a boom in oil-and-gas wells in the prior period.  Intellectual-property investment also slowed.  A particular weak spot last qtr was residential investment, which fell by the most since 2010 following a strong gain in the previous period.  Builders are coping with a shortage of available labor & lots, & warm weather in Q1 may have pulled forward some activity.  Price data in the report indicated that inflation moved away from the Federal Reserve's 2% goal.  Excluding food & energy, its preferred price index, tied to personal spending, rose at a 0.9% annualized rate last qtr, matching the weakest gain since 2010.

Second-Quarter U.S. Growth of 2.6% Underscores Resilience


Less enthusiasm about prospects for the US economy & personal finances sent consumer sentiment to a 9-month low in Jul, survey data from the Univ of Mich showed.  The sentiment index dropped to 93.4 (est. 93.2) from 95.1 in Jun (preliminary reading was 93.1).   Expectations measure fell to 80.5 from 83.9 the prior month; preliminary reading was 80.2. Current conditions gauge, which measures  perceptions of personal finances, advanced to a 12-year high of 113.4 from 112.5 in the prior month; preliminary reading was 113.2.  While 51%, matching the largest share since 2000, of consumers indicated that their finances had improved recently, households were wary about their prospects.  The proportion that anticipated financial gains in the coming year dropped to 34% from 42% a month earlier.  The decline in financial prospects was mostly among lower- & middle-income Americans.  What’s more, 28% said they expected the economy to improve in the year ahead, down from 42% just 3 months ago.  The drop in the main gauge of sentiment shows confidence is the lowest since Pres Trump was elected.  The decrease in expectations was concentrated among Reps, underscoring the frustrations voters have with lawmakers in DC & the uphill path for any policies that would help propel the economy.  “Long-term prospects for the economy were still dominated by partisanship, as 70 percent of Republicans expect a continuous expansion and 66 percent of Democrats expect a renewed downturn sometime in the next five years,” Richard Curtin, director of the consumer survey, said.  “Unemployment, a top concern of consumers, was expected to fall from its current low level by 52 percent of Republicans, and to increase by 43 percent of Democrats,” Curtin added.

Weaker Prospects for Incomes Weigh on U.S. Consumer Sentiment


German inflation unexpectedly remained stable in Jul, strengthening the case for a discussion about reducing ECB stimulus in the autumn.  The rate was unchanged at 1.5%, according to the Federal Statistics Office.  The estimate had predicted a drop to 1.4%.  Consumer prices rose 0.4% from Jun.  Data from Europe's largest economy bode well for inflation in the 19-nation region, which the ECB wants to see on a self-sustained upward path before it unwinds monetary stimulus.  Pres Mario Draghi said this month that with asset purchases currently scheduled to run out at the end of the year, a discussion about the future path of policy will take place at one of the next Governing Council meetings.  Euro-area consumer prices increased an annual 1.3% in Jun & Draghi said the rate is likely to hover around that level in the coming months.  So far, the region's booming economy has failed to translate into faster inflation & higher wages, but this may be about to change as activity continues to pick up & unemployment falls.  After strong data from France, Spain & Austria on today, the currency bloc is in for another qtr of robust growth.

German Inflation Unexpectedly Steady as ECB Nears Exit Debate


High priced Amazon (AMZN) plunged 36 on disappointing earnings which are weighing heavily on all tech stocks..  The Dow is drifting lower, off its highs, on profit taking.  2 Dow energy stocks were mixed.  Exxon (XOM) fell but Chevron (CVX) earnings weren't too bad based on expectations.  Dow is up 200 this week & about 450 this month, not bad, as confusions reigns in DC.  Meanwhile NAZ is off slightly this week but up 210 in Jul.

Dow Jones Industrials