Thursday, December 28, 2017

Markets inch higher on reduced holiday volume

Dow gained 51, advancers over decliners about 5-4 & NAZ was off pennies.  The MLP index crawled up chump change to the 274s & the REIT index was fractionally lower to 354.  Junk bond funds were flattish & Treasuries drifted lower.  Oil was little changed in the 59s & gold added 3 to 1294.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil59.55
-0.09-0.2%

GC=FGold   1,295.80
+4.40+0.4%







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The US merchandise trade deficit reached a more than 2-year high in Nov, while inventories at wholesalers & retailers increased, according to preliminary figures released by the Commerce Dept.  Goods-trade gap grew to $69.7B (est $67.9B), the widest since Mar 2015, from $68.1B the prior month.  Exports of goods rose 3% to $133.7B on increased shipments of automobiles & consumer & capital goods.  Imports increased 2.7% to a record $203.4B on more consumer goods & industrial supplies such as oil.  Demand for the goods remained elevated as US consumers, who are upbeat about the economy, continue to spend.  At the same time, companies are boosting investment in equipment, helping explain demand for imported capital goods.  Imports reached a fresh all-time high last month & will probably remain robust as a report yesterday showed record-high buying intentions for household goods from refrigerators to carpets & washers.  Meantime, stronger global growth is boosting demand for US-made goods.  Exports climbed to the highest level in nearly 3 years.  While a wider trade deficit will probably weigh on economic growth in Q4, today's data also showed a pickup in inventories that will help boost GDP.   Exports & imports of goods accounted for about ¾ of America's total trade in 2016 (the US typically runs a deficit in merchandise trade & a surplus in services).

U.S. Merchandise Trade Gap Widens to Largest Since 2015

The number of people filing for unemployment benefits held steady last week, in part reflecting estimated data for 13 states & still consistent with a strong job market, Labor Dept figures showed.  Jobless claims were unchanged at 245K from prior week (est 240K).  Continuing claims rose 7K to 1.94M in the latest week, the highest since mid-Nov.  The 4-week average of initial claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, increased to 238K from the prior week's 236K.  Claims are still hovering near the lowest level in more than 4 decades, underscoring employers' reluctance to reduce staff given the shortage of qualified workers.  Jobless claims are typically volatile this time of the year around the holiday season.  Some of the largest states (NY & Texas) showed estimated data for last week.  For more than 2 years, applications for jobless benefits have been below the 300K tally that's considered a sign of a healthy labor market.

Jobless Claims Held Steady, Signaling Solid U.S. Labor Market

Oil traded near the highest level in more than 2 years after a pipeline explosion curbed production in OPEC member Libya.  West Texas Intermediate futures were little changed, having climbed above $60 a barrel on Tues for the first time since 2015.  The pipeline, which carries crude to Libya's biggest export terminal, is said to need about a week for repairs.  The Forties pipeline in the UK, one of the world's most important, is nearing a return to full service following an unexpected shutdown earlier this month.  Oil is heading for a 2nd yearly advance as OPEC & its partners including Russia extended supply curbs thru the end of 2018 with the aim of draining a global glut.  The disruption in Libya has pushed the nation's output below the cap of about 1M barrels a day it agreed with the group last month, offsetting the return of flows thru the UK North Sea link.  West Texas Intermediate for Feb delivery was at $59.65 a barrel, up a penny after the contract dropped 33¢ to $59.64 yesterday.


Stocks are having a sleepy day.  There is not much exciting news to digest.  However gold is rising again, approaching its highest level in 4 years.  It's being purchased by investors nervous about the overbought stock market.

Dow Jones Industrials









 

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Mixed little changed as 2017 winds down

Dow went up 28, advancers over decliners almost 5-4 & NAZ added 3.  The MLP index fell 1+ to the 273s & the REIT index gained 1+ to the 354s.  Junk bond funds were a little higher & Treasuries finally gained in price, bringing lower yields.  Oil slid back in the 59s (more below) & gold advanced another 4 to 1292 (3 week high).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil59.63
-0.34-0.6%

GC=FGold   1,293.20
+5.70+0.4%




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Stocks were little changed, while Treasuries rose amid trading thinned by a holiday-shortened week.  The $ weakened against most peers.  The S&P 500 was virtually unchanged after a 2-day slump as data showed American consumers remain upbeat about the economy.  Trading was 44% below the 30-day average today.  Stocks in Europe ended slightly higher following a mixed session in Asia.  10-year Treasury yields headed for a 4th day of declines, while the $ traded near month lows.  Meanwhile, the € & £ gained, while bonds in Europe were mixed.  West Texas crude retreated after breaching $60 a barrel for the first time since Jun 2015 yesterday.

U.S. Stocks Mixed, Treasuries Gain as Dollar Falls: Markets Wrap


A measure of contract signings for the purchase of previously owned US homes unexpectedly increased in Nov after surging a month earlier, according to data released by the National Association of Realtors.  The index rose 0.2% M/M (est 0.4% drop) after 3.5% increase that was the largest since Feb.  The gauge increased 0.6% Y/Y on unadjusted basis after rising 1.2%.  The increase in contract signings indicates previously owned home sales, tabulated when a deal closes, will stay steady in coming months after climbing in Nov to an almost 11-year high.  Robust employment & cheap borrowing costs are underpinning the housing recovery.  Nonetheless, lean inventory remains a hurdle for the market as it’s keeping home prices rising faster than income growth.  “The housing market is closing the year on a stronger note than earlier this summer, backed by solid job creation and an economy that has kicked into a higher gear,” the NAR said.  “However, new buyers coming into the market are finding out quickly that their options are limited and competition is robust.”

US consumer confidence declined in Dec from a 17-year high as Americans became less upbeat about the outlook for the economy & job prospects, according to the Conference Board.  The Confidence index fell to a 3-month low of 122.1 (est 128) from a revised 128.6 in Nov.  Present conditions measure rose to 156.6, the highest since mid-2001, from 154.9.  Consumer expectations gauge dropped to 99.1, the lowest since Nov 2016, from 111.  Even with the latest cooling off, Americans remain upbeat -- this month was the strongest Dec since 2000.  While expectations about business conditions & job availability declined, the share of respondents who expected their incomes to rise in the next 6 months increased to the highest since Mar.  The data corroborate other measures showing people remain sanguine about the economy & their own situation.  While the Univ of Mich consumer sentiment index fell in Dec, it is also still elevated by historical standards.  “Despite the decline in confidence, consumers’ expectations remain at historically strong levels, suggesting economic growth will continue well into 2018,” the Conference Board said.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Fell in December

The United Parcel Service (UPS) projects that record-breaking ecommerce shopping volume this holiday season could lead to a surge in returns for the shipping company.  UPS said more than 1M returns occurred each day in Dec leading up to Christmas & the company expects that pace to continue thru the remainder of the month.  On Jan 3, what UPS expects to be “National Returns Day,” the package delivery company expects consumers to ship up to 1.4M parcels back to retailers, which is up 8% from one year ago & represents a 5th consecutive annual record.  Between Thanksgiving & New Year’s Eve, the company expects it will have delivered 750M packages, up 40M from 2016.  This holiday shopping season has been cheerful for retailers, as a surging stock market & increasing consumer confidence fuel spending.  According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, retail sales rose at their strongest pace since 2011, up 4.9% between Thanksgiving & Christmas Eve.  Meanwhile, ecommerce sales made up a significant share of those gains, at 18.1%.  UPS stock rose 78¢.
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UPS expects returns to surge to new record this season


Oil prices dipped after hitting a near 2½ year high in the previous session as a rally fueled by supply outages in Libya & the North Sea ran out of momentum.  Brent crude futures dropped to $66.38 a barrel down 0.9% (64¢) after breaking thru $67 for the first time since May 2015 the previous day.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $59.64 a barrel, down 34¢ from their last settlement.  WTI broke through $60 a barrel for the first time since Jun 2015 in the previous session.  Yesterday, Libya lost about 90K barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil supplies after a pipeline feeding Es Sider port was blown up.  Repair of the pipeline could take about one week but will not have a major impact on exports, the head of Libyan state oil firm NOC said.  The Libyan outage added to the supply disruptions of recent weeks, which also included the closure of Britain's largest Forties pipeline.  Yesterday, Forties was pumping at ½ its normal capacity & its operator was pledging to resume full flows in early Jan.  The Forties & Libyan outages, which together amount to around 500K bpd, are relatively small in a global context of both production & demand approaching 100M bpd.  Oil markets have tightened significantly over the past year thanks to voluntary supply restraint led by the Middle East-dominated OPEC & non-OPEC Russia.  Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that global oil markets gradually came into balance by 2016 & started to show a slight supply deficit this year following rampant oversupply in 2015.  The data implied a shortfall of 180K bpd for Q1-2018.  A major factor countering OPEC & Russia efforts to prop up prices is US oil production, which has soared more than 16% since mid-2016 & is fast approaching 10M bpd.

Oil falls from 2015 highs as rally runs out of steam

Optimism in the stock market has the S&P 500  the most overbought in 22 years.  And gold has had another run up this month.  But the bulls are still firmly in command.  Positive sentiment should continue next year, even with dysfunctional DC unable to get a lot done (aside from tax reform).  The Dow has time to go over 25K by Fri, but the chances are diminished with little time left & slow volume.  However, the popular stock averages are very close to their records which were set recently.  By any definition, this has been a stellar year for stocks.

Dow Jones Industrials









Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Markets slide in sluggish trading

Dow dropped 7, advancers over decliners 5-4 & NAZ lost 23.  The MLP index went up 1+ to the 275s & the REIT index gained 1+  to the 353s.  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries rose in price.  Oil jumped up a big 1+ to the high 39s (not seen in more than 2 years) & gold added 9 to 1287 (maybe headed for 1300).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Americans displayed their buying bona fides in the final run-up to Christmas, turning out in force to produce what may be the best holiday shopping season in years.  And why not?  A nation that loves to spend has plenty to feel good about, with low unemployment & a robust stock market.  The season's tally should reach $671B, a “stellar” 5.5% increase from last year, according to Craig Johnson, head of research firm Customer Growth Partners.  That would be the most since 2005, according to his calculations.  The timing of Christmas didn't hurt, either, with a full weekend for procrastinators to redeem themselves.  But signs of success were present all along, including a yen for home goods & electronics.  Johnson boosted his holiday forecast earlier this month & he notes that retailers didn't have to resort to last-minute markdowns to draw shoppers.  They were already coming in via the digital or brick-&-mortar doors.  Sales thru Christmas Eve were about $598B, Johnson said & he expects another $73B to come this week.

This Holiday Shopping Season May Be the Best in More Than a Decade

China can achieve a goal of doubling the size of its economy by 2020 even if annual expansion slows to 6.3%, according to a senior Communist Party official, signaling a greater willingness to tackle debt & pollution at the expense of growth.  In its blueprint for 2016 to 2020, China set a minimum annual growth target of 6.5% for the 5-year period to achieve the goal of doubling GDP from 2010 levels.  But,an official from the Communist Party committee overseeing economic policy, said annualized growth of 6.3% in 2018-2020 would do.  Based on current economic performance, the 2020 target won’t be a "huge barrier," the official said.  China is seen growing 6.8% this year & 6.5% in 2018, according estimates.  Pres Xi Jinping & other top leaders have likewise signaled less emphasis on growth, pledging earlier this month to focus on "critical battles" against financial risk, pollution & poverty in the next 3 years. The notion that China would abandon a growth target before 2020 was dismissed.  GDP will reach 80T yuan ($12.2T) by year end, the State Council research office said.  The economy only needs to grow by 6.3% a year & residential income by 5.3% to reach the targets of doubling 2020 GDP & per capita income from 2010 levels.

China Signals Slower Growth Is Acceptable to Tackle Debt, Smog


Craft breweries are raising a glass to the Reps' new tax overhaul: It cuts the excise tax on beer.  Retailers, long saddled with heavy tax bills, will get relief.  So will some high-profile names in corp finance.  The tax measure that Pres Trump signed into law Fri distributes benefits across a range of American industries, from construction to health care.  "As a general rule of thumb, everybody's doing well under this bill," Martin Sullivan, chief economist at Tax Analysts, says of US companies.  "When you give out a trillion in tax breaks, it's hard to create a lot of losers."  No wonder the stock market has been roaring in anticipation of fatter after-tax corp profits.  The new law slashes the corp tax rate to 21% from 35% & applies a low one-time tax to the profits that corps have long kept overseas to avoid paying taxes under the current higher rate.  It also delivers a windfall to people who pay personal taxes on business earnings.  It lets companies immediately write off the full cost of new equipment.  And it showers goodies on some individual industries, such as craft brewers, distilleries & wineries.  The reasoning behind shrinking the tax burdens of corps is to free up money for companies to invest in buildings, equipment & people & thereby juice the economy, &, in turn, benefit workers.  Yet some economists have expressed doubts that workers will benefit much from lower corp tax burdens.  In $s, the biggest tax savings from 2018-2027 go to manufacturers: $262B & the next-most-fortunate are insurance & finance companies ($249B) & retailers ($171B).   Supporters of the tax bill point out that America's 35% corp tax is one of the highest among advanced economies.  But the tax code is so riddled with loopholes that few corps have actually paid that list price.  Without the new law, the effective tax rate across all industries would have been 21.2% next year.  With it, the effective rate across industries could drop to 9.2%  in 2018.  Not all industries have gained equally from loopholes.  Retailers, for example, would have paid a 27.5% rate in 2018; under the new law, they'll pay just 15.6%.  "The tax bill is a big shot in the arm for retailers, who have traditionally paid taxes at nearly the full amount," says Matthew Shay, CEO of the National Retail Federation.  Shay says he thinks the bill will help retailers accelerate investment in e-commerce & mobile technology.  He also predicts that the bill will induce foreign-owned retailers to shift investment $s into the US.

US industries can start counting their benefits from tax law


Housing prices in 20 US cities accelerated more than forecast in Oct, rising by the most since mid-2014 as lean inventories continued to prop up values amid steady demand, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data showed.  20-city property values index increased 6.4% Y/Y (est 6.3%), the biggest gain since Jul 2014.  The national home-price gauge rose 6.2% Y/Y, the most since Jun 2014.  Seasonally adjusted 20-city index advanced 0.7% M/M (est 0.6%).  A lingering shortage of previously owned homes is keeping housing prices elevated.  That's allowed homeowners to recover the equity lost during the housing collapse & recession a decade ago.  Sales, meanwhile, are strengthening as the labor market remains robust & borrowing costs stay close to historically low levels.  For those looking to buy for the first time, conditions are less favorable.  Growth in property values is outpacing wage gains & limiting affordability, representing a headwind for the market.  Biggest gains in home prices occurring from the Rockies to the Pacific.  “Home prices continue their climb supported by low inventories and increasing sales,” David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee, said.  But that climb may be interrupted by the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates next year, he added.  “Since home prices are rising faster than wages, salaries, and inflation, some areas could see potential homebuyers compelled to look at renting."


The Dow & NAZ were hurt by a report that Apple (AAPL), with the largest market cap, will cut its sales forecast for the iPhone X by 40% in the qtr to 30M units.  The stock dropped 4½ (3%).  Otherwise, stocks did well on a sluggish day in the market.  Dow remains about 250 short of 25K.  The bulls could still take it there by the end of the year.  Thoughts about how the tax bill will help the economy & strong economic data continue to bring out stock buyers.  Meanwhile, gold (negative bets on stocks) is advancing.

Dow Jones Industrials