Thursday, June 28, 2018

Markets slide lower after GDP data

Dow lost 7, decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ crawled up 14 after yesterday's steep decline.  The MLP index fell 1+ to the 259s & the REIT index was off 1 to the 348s.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries fluctuated.  Oil advanced well into the 73s & gold fell another 4 to 1252.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil73.80
+1.04+1.4%

GC=FGold  1,253.50
 -2.60-0.2%








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The major US stock market indexes were flat to lower, having trimmed their early AM gains after the final read on Q1 GDP came in at 2.0% slightly below the 2.2% forecast.  The volatility in US & global markets may continue after investors digest updates on the economy & take in moves from the Trump Administration that will impact business here in the US.  Other economic data released included weekly jobless claims.  Applications for jobless claims came in above expectations, with 227K filing for benefits in the prior week versus the 220K estimate.  In trading around the globe, China's Shanghai Composite closed the day down 0.9%, falling deeper into a bear market, down more than 20% from its high, & Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed up 0.50%.  Japan's Nikkei ended the day little changed, but near a one-month low.  European shares succumbed once again to trade tensions & political concerns.  London's FTSE slipped back, Germany's DAX fell 0.8% & France's CAC was off 0.4%.  Stocks retreated yesterday, with all 3 major U.S. indices turning negative after what was a fairly upbeat session.  The tech-heavy NAZ led the selloff.  The Dow lost 165 (0.7%) to 24,117 & the S&P 500 fell 23 (0.8%) to 2699.  The NAZ dropped 116 (1.5%) to 7445.  Commodities were mostly lower but oil was higher again, touching its highest price in 3-1/2 years today.

Stocks bounce between gains and losses

The US economy slowed more than expected in Q1.  The final reading on GDP was revised lower to an annualized pace of 2.0%, according to the Commerce Dept.  The prior reading showed growth at 2.2%, which was what was expected in the final reading.  Growth in Q4 was 2.9%.  Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than 2/3 of economic activity, slowed to a 0.9% rate in Q1 instead of the previously reported 1.0% pace, the slowest pace since Q2-2013 & reflected downward revisions to healthcare spending by nonprofits & outlays on finance & insurance services.  Consumer spending grew at a 4.0% rate in Q4.

1Q GDP sits at 2.0% with optimism for 2H bounce


Energy Secretary Rick Perry confirmed he met with Russia's oil minister this week & laid out US concerns about a number of issues, including Moscow's annexation of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in 2014.  "We shared with them our concerns about some of the activities they've been involved with, whether it's Crimea, Ukraine [or] the continual development of the Nord Stream 2 [natural gas pipeline]. All of those are on the table," Perry said.  "They're obviously not unilateral for the Department of Energy to be making decisions. But we can send a message," he added.  Perry's meeting with his Russian counterpart came ahead of a summit between Pres Trump & Russian Pres Putin, set for Jul 16 in Helsinki, Finland.  Russia will be a "major player in the European market" for natural gas, Perry said, recognizing to the competitive edge of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, under the Baltic Sea, that will directly connect Russia & Germany.  Critics are concerned about the $11B project boosting Europe's dependence on Russian gas.  "Competition is a good thing was basically our message," Perry said.  "[However] , we're going to put our shoulders to task and try to get as much American LNG [liquefied natural gas] into the [European] community as we can."  On oil prices, which have soared more than 12% in recent weeks, Perry refused to predict the future path for crude.  But he said $65-70 per barrel "seems to be a place where most of the producers are comfortable."

Energy Secretary Rick Perry meets with Russia's oil minister and airs US concerns about their foreign aggression

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but the trend in claims remained consistent with a tightening labor market.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 9K to a seasonally adjusted 227K for the latest week, the Labor Dept said.  Filings had dropped for 4 straight weeks prior to the latest data.  The forecast called for claims rising to 220K (there is probably limited scope for claims to post significant declines).  The labor market is viewed as being near or at full employment, with the jobless rate at an 18-year low of 3.8&.  The unemployment rate has dropped by three-tenths of a percentage point this year & is near the Fed's forecast of 3.6% by the end of this year.  The 4-week moving average of initial claims, viewed as a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, edged up 1K to 222K last week.  The claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 21K to 1.71M in the latest week.  The 4-week moving average of continuing claims dropped 3K to 1.72M, the lowest level since 1973.  The continuing claims data covered the week of the household survey from which the Jun unemployment rate will be derived.  The 4-week average of continuing claims decreased 32K between the May & Jun survey periods, suggesting a further decline in the jobless rate this month was likely.

US weekly jobless claims rose more than expected last week

The stock market is doing little, waiting for new developments on the trade front.  Yesterday was packed with an unusually large number of significant new stories & traders are attempting to digest it all today.  The Dow is holding above 24K (shown below), but its hold is fragile.  The bulls are mainly on the sidelines.

Dow Jones Industrials








Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Markets tumble, led by tech stocks

Dow finished down 165, decliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ sank a very big 116.  The MLP index fell 3+ to the 261s & the REIT index was off 1+ to the 349s.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries rallied, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury down to 2.83% (lowest in Jun).  Oil popped to the 72s (more below) & gold lost 5 to 1254.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Pres Trump has no plans to soften his stance on trade relations with China, Larry Kudlow the director of the National Economic Council said.  Kudlow said the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act [FIRRMA] is a reform bill that aims to refresh & modernize the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US, it should not be viewed as a lighter version which had been reported by some news outlets.  “It’s going to be very comprehensive and very effective at protecting our technological family jewels,” Kudlow added.  Meanwhile Kudlow said Trump still plans to move forward on the plan to impose tariffs on steel & aluminum, but is open to the prospect of more dialogue with the nation's largest trading partners.  “He is a free trader,” said Kudlow.  “He would like to see no tariffs, no non-tariff barriers, no subsidies—and we are open for that discussion.”  Even so, Kudlow isn't expecting a radical shift anytime soon & noted that Trump is taking a “wait and see” approach to trade relations between the world's 2 largest economies.  “The president proffered the possibility of $200 billion more in tariffs— it’s not implemented… but he made that as a warning because we have not had a satisfactory response from China,” he added.  “I believe that China is operating from a greater position of weakness than folks think,” he said.  “We are operating from a greater position of economic strength.”  Kudlow is returning to work for the first time since Jun 11 after suffering a heart attack.  “I feel great- great to be back,” he said.  “To quote one of my heroes Mark Twain – rumors of my demise were greatly exaggerated.”

Trump is modernizing foreign investment rules: Larry Kudlow


Texas steel pipe maker Borusan Mannesmann Pipe US wants protection against Pres Trump's tariffs, CEO Joel Johnson said.  Borusan's headquarters are located in Turkey & Trump's levies would cost the company as much as $35M a year & undermine expansion plans.  “What we’ve tried to do is spin this into a unique offer for a deal to President Trump and Secretary Ross is to give us a short-term exemption, allow us time to build a new factory alongside our existing one and become 100 percent American steel and pipe and stop imports,” Johnson said.  Trump says his tariffs on steel & aluminum will boost US business & level the playing field, but Johnson said immunity conforms to what the pres wants – more domestic jobs & investments.  The short-term exemption, he added, would also allow Borusan to purchase more hot-rolled coiled steel from US suppliers

Steel pipe maker based in Turkey aims to become 100% American


US oil exports reached a record 3M barrels a day last week, more than is pumped each day by all but 3 OPEC countries.  When combined with fuel products, like diesel & gasoline, US oil & related products exports totaled 8.5M barrels a day last week, the most ever, according to US Energy Information Administration weekly data.  US oil production also continued at a record pace of 10.9M barrels a day, a level first reached this month.  That is more oil than produced by every other country in the world, except for Russia, which does not belong to OPEC & pumps just over 11M barrels a day.  US refineries also took in a record 18M barrels of oil.  To put US exports in context, the US was able to export more oil per day last week than most OPEC countries drilled.  The US weekly exports fluctuate dramatically, but if they stay at this level, the US would be just behind Canada, which sends about 3.5M barrels to the US each day, the bulk of of its exports.  As US production has grown, US imports have decreased.  The US imported a relatively high 8.4M barrels per day last week.  The 3M barrel level may not be sustainable just yet.  Analysts said some of the oil appears to have been pulled from inventories, which fell an unusually large amount last week.

US oil exports boom to record level, surpassing most OPEC nations

Oil prices rose to their highest level since Nov 2014 after a bigger-than-expected drop in US crude stockpiles added to a rally fueled by a major Canadian supply outage, concerns about Libya's exports & stepped-up efforts by the Trump administration to disrupt Iran's petroleum exports.  US light crude ended up $2.23 (3.2%) at $72.76 a barrel, its best closing prices since Nov 2014.  The contract briefly topped $73 a barrel, also hitting its highest intraday level since Nov 2014.  Brent crude oil rose $1.41 a barrel (1.9%) to $77.72, adding to yesterday's gain of $1.50.  US commercial crude inventories dropped by 9.9M barrels in the latest week, the US Energy Information Administration reported.   Analysts expected a drop of about 2.6M barrels, while earlier industry data showed a 9.2M barrel decline.  US crude prices surged $2.45 a barrel yesterday after the State Dept said it is telling companies that buy Iranian crude oil that they must completely cut those exports by Nov 4, or they will face powerful US sanctions.  The hardline approach comes at a time when oil markets are finely balanced & crude prices are trading near multi-year highs.  It also came on the heels of a supply outage at Syncrude in Canada, which has locked in 350K barrels per day (bpd) of crude, with repairs expected to last at least thru Jul.  The fall in Canadian exports has helped drain supplies of heavy crude across North America & contributed to the draw in US crude oil inventories.  In Libya, a power struggle between the official gov & rebels has left it unclear who will handle the country's oil exports, although as of yesterday the oil ports of Hariga & Zueitina in eastern Libya were working normally.  OPEC on Fri agreed to increase oil output to prevent the market from overheating.  The 14-member producer group took action as Venezuela's dwindling output, the looming disruptions to Iran's supplies & production declines elsewhere raised concerns about oil prices rising enough to dent global demand.

US crude surges 3.2% on supply concerns, settling at $72.76, best closing price since Nov 2014

Cheerios cereal maker General Mills (GUS) reported a quarterly profit that topped estimates, as its efforts to reduce costs and improve distribution network paid off.  Gross margins of the company, which is also known for its Haagen-Dazs & Betty Crocker brands, rose to 36.5% in its Q4 from 34.7% a year earlier.  GIS expects organic net sales to be flat to up 1%.  Including the impact of it acquisition of pet food snacks maker Blue Buffalo, net sales are expected to rise 9-10% from a year earlier.  To counter slowing sales growth in the packaged foods industry, the company bought pet snacks maker Blue Buffalo Pet Products for nearly $8B earlier this year.  EPS fell to 59¢ from 69¢ a year earlier.  Excluding certain items, EPS was 79¢, topping expectations of 72¢.  Net sales rose 2% to $3.89B, in line with the estimate.  The stock fell 33¢.
If you would like to learn more about GIS, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GIS?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

General Mills quarterly profit drops 13 percent


After hearing the words "not so fast" regarding easing trade tensions, the AM rally faded fast.  The Dow finished 450 below its high today with techs & financials leading the decline.  It's just above the 25K resistance once again & that may be tested tomorrow.  The stock market continues to be on thin ice because the bulls have lost control for 5 months.  Trade issues remain center stage & nobody knows where they will lead.

Dow Jones Industrials