Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Stocks down again

A week ago yesterday the market had it's big gain day, up 400. Since then it has been slipping & sliding. Volume continues light, only slightly ahead of yesterday which was the slowest day of the year. Dow was down 59, decliners over advancers 2-1 and NAZ slipped 21. Financials, especially brokers, were weak on worries about more big write-offs. Merrill Lynch (MER) is looking at another 6½B in write-downs. Only these aren't related just to sub-prime loans. Instead they will include real-estate & other loans. This comes after $24B already written off. I still remember those commercials: "Merrill Lynch is bullish on America." I don't know! Oil prices reached a new record, above 112, closing at 110.87. It was just a couple of weeks ago it slipped under 100 bringing some relief. Crude oil stocks (inventory) were reported to have declined last week by 3.2MM barrels as opposed to an expected increase of 2.4MM. Gas prices at the pumps reached a record & poised to go higher.

There is supposed to be a ton of cash on the sidelines. One estimate yesterday said there was $7T (that's trillion) in money market accounts. Investors are waiting for more earnings reports. The first reports along with warnings are getting nervous ones to sell.

Here's an excellent summary on today's markets from from Bloomberg.com:
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``It will be a challenging quarter,'' Brian McMahon, chief investment officer at Thornburg Investment Management, which oversees $53 billion, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in New York. ``What we're seeing now is a ratcheting down in earnings expectations particularly for stocks that serve the retrenching American consumer. This quarter is going to be a splash of cold water in the face for certain consumer-facing stocks.''

Earnings Concern
Analysts have cut their projections for first-quarter earnings every week this year as evidence grows that more than $230 billion in global losses and asset writedowns at financial firms have pushed the economy into a recession. First-quarter profits at S&P 500 companies probably fell an average of 11.3 percent from a year earlier, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

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