Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Markets edge higher after jobs report

There is not a lot of direction in the markets even though they have an upward bias. Dow is down 9, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ rose 12. Banks have had difficulty finding their way for 3 months, not good for the bullish argument. The Financial Index is down today.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
196.70
Change
-0.51
% Change
-0.3%


Kinder Morgan (KMP), now the 2nd largest MLP, had another big unit offering depressing its unit price (see below) & negatively affecting the MLP index. They have had a nice recovery this year, this setback should be viewed as only temporary. This is completing their announced plan to raise $1B in 2009 to support added borrowings for financing a growing pipeline network. The MLP index is down 1 while the REIT index is up 1+ bringing it to 7 points below its 2009 high. Junk bond funds were higher, generally to the best levels of 2009. This money is accepting lower yields in junk bond funds because they see an "improving" economy. Treasuries were weak. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose another 4 basis points to 3.31%, up from its interim low last week.


Kinder Morgan --- 2 weeks




Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




10-Year Treasury Yld Index - 2 weeks





Oil slipped back, continuing to slosh around the upper 70s. In contrast gold keeps roaring ahead, hitting new record highs has become routine in the last month. After breaking thru 1200, the next question is when it will reach 1300? I haven't been a big believer in gold investing, but with more money flowing to Asia gold has a very bright future.

CLF10.NYM...Crude Oil Jan 10...77.58 ...Down 0.79
.......(1.0%)


GCZ09.CMX...Gold Dec 09...1,212.60 ...Up 13.50
.......(1.1%)



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US employers shed 169K jobs in Nov, fewer than the 195K jobs lost in Oct (originally reported as 203K). The median estimate was for decline of 155K jobs. This is the smallest loss in 16 months. The report signals the job market is still deteriorating & unemployment will probably climb further even as the economy is emerging from the worst recession since the 1930s. The important monthly jobs (unemployment rate) report is coming on Fri. Today's report suggests the jobs report may be less bad than feared.


Companies in U.S. Cut 169,000 Jobs Last Month, Topping Estimates, ADP Says

Unemployment rate (%) - 1 year





Dubai debt has been reduced to lurking behind the scenes, but concerns remain. Even if they muddle thru this crisis, it's a reminder that other areas are subject to their day of reckoning after over expansion periods.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

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