Friday, October 5, 2012

Markets rise after unemployment rate falls

Dow rose 63, advancers ahead of decliners 4-1 & NAZ gained 11.  The Financial Index was up 1+ to the 217s, just 1 below its yearly high in the 218s on Sep14.  The MLP index rose 3 to the 414s, a new record, & the REIT index was up 1+ to the 263.  Junk bond funds gained & Treasuries pulled back as stocks rose.  Oil is heading for a 3rd weekly drop as signals that supply is exceeding demand outweighed the decline in the unemployment rate.  Gold is lower, but remains near the important $1800 level.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.096%

U.S. 2-year

0.254%

U.S. 10-year

1.718%

CLX12.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 12...90.85 .....Down 0.86  (0.9%)

GCV12.CMX...Gold Oct 12......1,783.20 ...Down 10.90  (0.6%)




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  • <p>               FILE - In this Monday, Sept. 17, 2012, file photo, job applicants wait for the opening of a job fair held by National Career Fairs in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent last month, dropping below 8 percent for the first time in nearly four years. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky, File)
Photo:   Yahoo

The US unemployment rate fell to 7.8% last month, dropping below 8% for the first time in nearly 4 years.  The rate declined from 8.1% because the number of people who said they were employed soared by 873K.  The number of unemployed is now 12.1M, the fewest since Jan 2009.  But the Labor Dept said employers added 114K jobs in Sep & also said the economy created 86K more jobs in Jul & Aug than had initially estimated.  Wages rose in Sep & more people started looking for work.  The revisions show employers added 146K jobs per month in Q3, up from 67K in Q2.  The 7.8% unemployment rate for Sep matches the rate in Jan 2009, when Obama took office.



Greece will run out of money at the end of Nov if it doesn't receive the next planned installment of its bailout loans, the country's prime minister said.  Prime Minister Samaras said he's confident that the money will arrive on time, but warned that it is "very difficult" to make further cuts to pensions & wages that the country's debt inspectors are seeking.  Greece has relied on bailouts from increasingly impatient intl creditors since May 2010.  In return, it imposed a punishing austerity program, repeatedly slashing incomes, hiking taxes & raising retirement ages.  Lending officials are currently in Greece assessing the country's progress in fulfilling the terms for receiving the aid.  If their report doesn't clear the way for the payment of the next €31B ($40B) of the country's bailout, Greece could be forced to default on its debts & perhaps leave the euro zone.  Asked how long Greece can hold out without that payment, Samaras was quoted as saying: "Until the end of November. Then the till will be empty."  Samaras said Greece is pressing ahead with budget consolidation, working on speeding up privatization & trying to attract foreign investors.  But he conceded that there are difficulties in negotiations with the troika.  "The troika is demanding above all further cuts to pensions and wages. That is very difficult, because we are already bleeding," he said.  "The existing cuts already go to the bone. We are at the limit of what we can expect of our population."  And the Greek drama plays on as it has done for a few years.

Greek PM Says Country's Till Will Empty by December


EU Doubts on Deficit Cutting May Hinder Spain’s Path to Bailout

Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy & VP of the European Commission, Olli Rehn,
Photo:   Bloomberg

A possible bailout for Spain is not imminent, an EU official said, as concerns grow over the country’s ability to reach its deficit-reduction targets.  There’s no guarantee that Prime Minister Rajoy will ask for aid from the EU rescue funds & he’s facing a challenge to deliver the budget-deficit cuts pledged.  While Mario Draghi said yesterday the ECB is ready to start buying bonds of sovereigns that qualify for aid, officials from Spain, Germany & now the EU has damped expectations of a rescue this week.  Olli Rehn, the European commissioner in charge of policing budget rules, told Spanish officials their plans to reduce the shortfall to 4.5% of GDP next year are based on excessively optimistic assumptions about economic growth.  Central bank governor Luis Maria Linde, who met Rehn on his visit to Madrid on Mon, echoed that view in comments to lawmakers yesterday.  Not sure where that leaves us.

Spain Bailout Seen as Not Imminent as Deficit Doubts Mount


Markets are having a rather muted response after learning the unemployment rate dropped below 8%.  Part of the reason is that the number of jobs created only matched drab expectations.  The number should be double to help really bring down the unemployment rate.  The euro debt mess remains in the background & China is in their version of a recession with its low growth rate.  Dow eked out a new 4 year high earlier today, but has fallen back 22 since then.  Earnings reports begin next week & that is keeping bulls in a cautious mode.

Dow Jones Industrials


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