Monday, February 3, 2014

Lower markets on China data

Dow tumlbed 151, decliners over advancers 5-2  & NAZ fell 49.  The MLP index slipped a fraction to 463 & the REIT index lost 1+ to the 272s.  Junk bond funds backed off  & Treasuries were also weaker.  Oil did litte & gold had a modest gain.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.02%

U.S. 2-year

0.33%

U.S. 10-year

2.67%

CLH14.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 14...97.57 Up ...0.08 (0.1%)

GCG14.CMX...Gold Feb 14.....1,248.50 Up ....8.40 (0.7%)







A Chinese manufacturing gauge fell to a 6 month low in Jan as output & orders slowed, adding to signs that gov efforts to rein in excessive credit will cool growth.  The Purchasing Managers’ In index was at 50.5, the National Bureau of Statistics & China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing said, matching the estimate & compares with 51 for Dec.  Numbers above 50 signal expansion.  The survey showed jobs & export orders shrinking, amplifying risks of a deeper slowdown as Communist Party leaders clamp down on the $6T shadow-banking industry & interbank borrowing costs rise.  A separate manufacturing gauge released by HSBC Holdings & Markit Economics pointed to the first contraction in 6 months.  A report on the non-manufacturing sector also showed a deterioration, with that PMI falling to 53.4 in Jan from 54.6 in Dec.  A gauge of output in Jan fell to a 4 month low of 53 from 53.9, while the new-orders index declined to a 6 month low of 50.9 from 52.0.  The survey suggested manufacturing jobs are shrinking at a faster pace, with a gauge of employment declining to 48.2, the lowest in a year.  HSBC’s survey showed companies eliminating jobs at the fastest rate in almost 5 years.  HSBC’s broader index, which showed a reading of 49.5 for Jan, is based on responses from more than 420 manufacturers & is weighted more toward smaller companies.  Not good news for the global economy.

China Manufacturing Gauge Falls to Six-Month Low


Chrysler sales in Jan increased 8% as demand for the new Jeep Cherokee offset bad weather that kept some shoppers from dealerships.  Deliveries for Chrysler rose to 127K cars & light trucks. The 3rd largest US automaker beat the estimate for a 5.4% gain.  Ford (F) sales fell 7.5% & General Motors (GM) dropped 12%, both more than estimated, while Nissan deliveries rose more than projected with a 12% gain.  Sergio Marchionne, CEO of Chrysler will rely on 2 models this year to fuel profit for the group: the Jeep Cherokee & the revamped Chrysler 200 sedan.  Analysts are projecting Chrysler will outpace an industry that eked out a sales increase during the coldest Jan since 1994.  “The bad weather only seemed to affect our competitors’ stores as we had a great January,”  Reid Bigland, Chrysler Group’s head of US sales, said.  US car & light truck sales in Jan probably rose 0.4% to less than 1.05M.  The annualized selling pace, adjusted for seasonal trends, may have accelerated to 15.7M, up from 15.2M a year earlier.

Chrysler Sales Rise 8% as Cherokee Paces Jeep Brand


Factory activity in the US expanded in Jan at the weakest pace in 8 months as orders slumped, a sign manufacturing cooled at the start of the year along with the weather.  The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) factory index decreased to 51.3 from 56.5 in the prior month.  The forecast called for a decrease to 56.  Colder-than-normal temperatures in the US & weakness in some emerging markets helped slow factory demand last month.  Sustained gains in consumer purchases, improvement in the labor market & a pickup in capital spending will be needed to keep assembly lines humming.  The ISM’s new orders measure slumped to 51.2 from 64.4 in Dec, while a gauge of production dropped to 54.8 from 61.7.  The index of bookings waiting to be filled decreased to 48 in Jan from 51.5 & the measure of factory employment fell to 52.3 from 55.8 in Dec.

U.S. ISM Factory Index Declines More Than Forecast


Feb is starting by extending the losses in dreary Jan.  It's hard to keep track of financial issues around the globe.  Argentina is devaluing, Turkey & Ukraine have their problems.  What's really big is the Chinese economy.  New leaers are having a tough time coming to grips with what could be major financial problems at the macro level which is being felt around the globe.  Then there's the nasty weather across much of the US which is not helping retail sales.  The early signals for the new month are negative.

Dow Jones Industrials

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