Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Higher markets on improving economic data

Dow advanced 91, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ finally managed a gain, up 7.  The MLP index slipped fractionally to 457 & the REIT index climbed 2+ to 284.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries hardly budged.  Oil & gold fluctuated.

AMJ  (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)







Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.05%

U.S. 2-year

0.43%

U.S. 10-year

2.73%

CLK14.NYM....Crude Oil May 14....99.26 Down ...0.34  (0.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Agricultural Bank Of China Branch
Photo:   Bloomberg

Agricultural Bank of China, the first of the nation’s largest lenders to report 2013 earnings, posted a slowdown in profit growth as gov lending curbs offset improving margins & asset quality.  Net income climbed 13% to 28.3B yuan ($4.6B) in the qtr ended Dec 31 from 25B yuan a year earlier.  That compared with the 27.9B yuan estimate.  The slowdown foreshadows the challenges that China’s banks face as the gov seeks to contain credit growth & industrial capacity in a weaker economy that this month had its first onshore bond default.  The bank, whose 420M customers exceed the population of any country except China & India, reined in bad loans as it stepped up collection efforts & increased write-offs.  The stock dropped 16% this year as slowing growth raised concern that borrowers may be unable to repay debt.  China’s economy is forecast to grow 7.4% this year, the weakest pace since 1990.  Agricultural Bank had 87.8B yuan of nonperforming loans (NPL) by Dec, down from 87.9B yuan at the end of Q3.  That helped reduce bad debt as a percentage of total lending to 1.22% from 1.33% a year earlier.  The bank set aside more money for soured assets, boosting the ratio by 40.9 basis points to 367% of total NPLs.  Agricultural Bank said net interest margin, a measure of lending profitability, rose to 2.79% at the end of last year from 2.74% in Jun.  The outlook for 2014 is considered to be challenging.  Economic problems in China reverberate around the world.

Agricultural Bank of China Posts Slower Profit Growth Amid Curbs


Residential real-estate prices climbed at a slower pace in the year thru Jan than a month earlier, indicating momentum in the housing market may be cooling.  The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities increased 13.2% from Jan 2013, the smallest gain since Aug, after rising 13.4% in the 12 months thru Dec.  The projection called for a 13.3% advance.  Compared with the prior month, prices rose 0.8%.  Price appreciation on a year-over-year basis has eased in recent months as higher mortgage rates & unusually severe winter weather slowed demand for properties.  Smaller increases in asking prices will help improve affordability, providing support for the residential real-estate market, which has been a source of strength for the economy.  Home prices adjusted for seasonal variations increased in Jan from the prior month after climbing 0.7% in Dec. The estimate called for a 0.6% gain.  The month-over-month price gains in cities were led by a 1.8% increase in San Diego & a 1.7% advance in San Francisco as prices climbed in all 20 major metropolitan areas.  Unadjusted prices decreased 0.1% in Jan from the prior month after a similar decline in Dec. 12 areas reported a drop in unadjusted prices, while values increased in 7 cities.  The year-over-year gauge, which uses records dating back to 2001, provides better indications of trends in prices, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller group.

Home Prices in U.S. Cities Climb at Slower Rate in Sign Market Is Cooling


Walgreen's, a Dividend Aristocrat, fiscal Q2 earnings slipped from a year ago as the drugstore chain reaped a smaller benefit from generic drugs & took a $60M charge due to rough winter weather.  But the company's underlying performance impressed investors, & its shares rose, approaching the all-time high reached last month.  WAG said that a wave of new generic drug introductions peaked in prior year's Q4, which helped the company's bottom line then but made comparisons difficult for this year's qtr.  Generic drugs squeeze drugstore sales but improve profitability because they come with a wider margin between the cost to purchase & the reimbursement received.  The tough comparison between this year's qtrs & the prior year will ease later this year.  WAG expects generics to start helping its year-over-year performance again by the end of the fiscal year.  The company had a tough winter that also affected its performance by keeping customers away from its stores, forcing it to temporarily close some locations & adding $23M in snow removal costs.  Overall EPS was 78¢, down from 79¢ a year ago.  Adjusted EPS was 91¢, below the 93¢ forecast.  Revenue rose  5% to $19.61B, matching expectations.  The stock shot up 2.09.  If you would like to learn more about WAG, click on this link for Trend Analysis:
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Walgreen 2Q profit slips on tough comparisonAP

Walgreen (WAG)




The economic reports today were good enough to bring out stock buyers.  Of course Q1 is winding down & there may be some buying to make portfolios look better at month's end.  Next month will bring evaluations of enrollments in Obamacare & what that means.  The Russian-Ukraine mess drones on with little action by the West other than imposing sanctions on a few rich people.  Dow is still down 200 in Q1, but has a shot at finishing in the black with a few more rallies.

Dow Jones Inudstrials







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