Dow gained 33, advancers over decliners almost 2-1 & NAZ rose 20. The MLP index was up fractionally in the 301s & the REIT index added 1+ to go over 340. Junk bond funds were a little higher & Treasuries pulled back. Oil fell below 49 on profit taking (see below) & gold declined, getting close to the important 1200 floor.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
The US economy expanded at a slightly faster pace in Q1 than previously estimated, reflecting less damage from trade & inventories. GDP rose at a 0.8 % annualized rate, the smallest gain in a year, according to the Commerce Dept. That compares with the 0.5% advance reported last month. The figures do little to alter views of the 3rd consecutive sluggish start to the year, & could portend a tougher slog in Q2 as businesses work to continue to pare stockpiles. At the same time, household income gains were stronger than previously reported as the labor market strengthened, which will help support consumer spending. The forecast called for a 0.9% gain. After-tax personal income adjusted for inflation climbed at a 4% annualized rate in Q1, revised up from a prior estimate of 2.9%. The saving rate was also pushed up to 5.7%, the highest since Q4-2012, from 5.2%.The figures also offered a first look at corp profits. Before-tax earnings rose 0.3% from the prior qtr, but were down 5.8% from the same time last year. Total income in the economy, which combines all forms of earnings, increased at a 2.2% annualized rate, the most since Household purchases, which account for almost 70% of the economy, grew at a 1.9% annualized rate, the same as initially estimated.
U.S. Economy Grew More Last Quarter Than Previously Estimated
Consumer confidence in the US climbed less than forecast in May as Americans were a little less ebullient about the economy's prospects in the run up to the presidential election, the University of Michigan’s report showed. Final index rose to 94.7 (estimate 95.4) from 89 in Apr, down from May preliminary reading of 95.8. Current conditions index, which takes stock of Americans' view of their personal finances, climbed to 109.9, the highest since Jan 2007, from 106.7. Measure of expectations 6 months from now advanced to 84.9 from 77.6 in Apr. Consumers expect year-ahead inflation rate of 2.4%, lowest since Sep 2010 & down from 2.8% in Apr survey. Consumers see inflation over next 5-10 years at 2.5% rate, same as in Apr, matching the record lows in data going back almost 5 decades. Household purchasing power is getting a boost as more Americans than at any time in the last 10 years said they expect their finances to improve over the next 12 months. That would help consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy. At the same time, as the election campaign heats up, concerns are mounting about how the US may fare once a new pres is elected. “The late month falloff was due to a slightly less favorable outlook for the overall economy,” Richard Curtin, director of the University of Michigan consumer survey, said. Households’ biggest uncertainty, said Curtin, was “the outlook for future government economic policies under a new president. This has increased their emphasis on maintaining precautionary savings.”
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Increased Less Than Forecast
Oil fell below $49, moving further away from a 7-month high hit a day earlier, with analysts predicting range-bound markets for the next few months as supply outages slowly help to clear a glut of crude. Prices also came under pressure from a strong $, buoyed by generally positive US economic data amid growing expectations of a near-term increase in interest rates. Oil pushed through $50 for the first time in about 7 months yesterday after supply disruptions from Canadian wildfires & militant attacks in Nigeria helped cut global daily output by 4M barrels.
U.S. Crude Retreats From $50 on Oversupply Concerns
Revised GDP for Q1 brought out a few stock buyers, but their enthusiasm was subdued by continued weak data. Chances are that thoughts about the Jun meeting for the Fed has more to do with price movements in stocks. With buyers winning out today, they are praying for the FOMC to postpone a rate hike at least one more time (tomorrow will take care of itself).
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CLN16.NYM | ....Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures,J | ...48.83 |  ...0.65 | (1.3%) |
| GCM16.CMX | ...Gold Futures,Jun-2016 | ...........1,215.90 | ...4.50 | (0.4%) |
The US economy expanded at a slightly faster pace in Q1 than previously estimated, reflecting less damage from trade & inventories. GDP rose at a 0.8 % annualized rate, the smallest gain in a year, according to the Commerce Dept. That compares with the 0.5% advance reported last month. The figures do little to alter views of the 3rd consecutive sluggish start to the year, & could portend a tougher slog in Q2 as businesses work to continue to pare stockpiles. At the same time, household income gains were stronger than previously reported as the labor market strengthened, which will help support consumer spending. The forecast called for a 0.9% gain. After-tax personal income adjusted for inflation climbed at a 4% annualized rate in Q1, revised up from a prior estimate of 2.9%. The saving rate was also pushed up to 5.7%, the highest since Q4-2012, from 5.2%.The figures also offered a first look at corp profits. Before-tax earnings rose 0.3% from the prior qtr, but were down 5.8% from the same time last year. Total income in the economy, which combines all forms of earnings, increased at a 2.2% annualized rate, the most since Household purchases, which account for almost 70% of the economy, grew at a 1.9% annualized rate, the same as initially estimated.
U.S. Economy Grew More Last Quarter Than Previously Estimated
Consumer confidence in the US climbed less than forecast in May as Americans were a little less ebullient about the economy's prospects in the run up to the presidential election, the University of Michigan’s report showed. Final index rose to 94.7 (estimate 95.4) from 89 in Apr, down from May preliminary reading of 95.8. Current conditions index, which takes stock of Americans' view of their personal finances, climbed to 109.9, the highest since Jan 2007, from 106.7. Measure of expectations 6 months from now advanced to 84.9 from 77.6 in Apr. Consumers expect year-ahead inflation rate of 2.4%, lowest since Sep 2010 & down from 2.8% in Apr survey. Consumers see inflation over next 5-10 years at 2.5% rate, same as in Apr, matching the record lows in data going back almost 5 decades. Household purchasing power is getting a boost as more Americans than at any time in the last 10 years said they expect their finances to improve over the next 12 months. That would help consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy. At the same time, as the election campaign heats up, concerns are mounting about how the US may fare once a new pres is elected. “The late month falloff was due to a slightly less favorable outlook for the overall economy,” Richard Curtin, director of the University of Michigan consumer survey, said. Households’ biggest uncertainty, said Curtin, was “the outlook for future government economic policies under a new president. This has increased their emphasis on maintaining precautionary savings.”
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Increased Less Than Forecast
Oil fell below $49, moving further away from a 7-month high hit a day earlier, with analysts predicting range-bound markets for the next few months as supply outages slowly help to clear a glut of crude. Prices also came under pressure from a strong $, buoyed by generally positive US economic data amid growing expectations of a near-term increase in interest rates. Oil pushed through $50 for the first time in about 7 months yesterday after supply disruptions from Canadian wildfires & militant attacks in Nigeria helped cut global daily output by 4M barrels.
U.S. Crude Retreats From $50 on Oversupply Concerns
Revised GDP for Q1 brought out a few stock buyers, but their enthusiasm was subdued by continued weak data. Chances are that thoughts about the Jun meeting for the Fed has more to do with price movements in stocks. With buyers winning out today, they are praying for the FOMC to postpone a rate hike at least one more time (tomorrow will take care of itself).
Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment