Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Markets pull back to take a breaher as trade talks flounder

Dow dropped 66, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ lost 5.  The MLP index did little at a very depressed 197 & the REIT index was even at 407.  Junk bond funds fluctuated  & Treasuries rose in price.  Oil  rebounded 1 to the 56s & gold fell 7 to 1467.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil55.68
+0.47+0.9%

GC=FGold   1,471.60
 -2.70 -0.2%






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China threatened to retaliate against the after the Senate unanimously passed legislation yeserday to support human rights in Hong Kong following months of widespread anti-government protests in the semi-autonomous city.  Yesterday, the Senate approved the Hong Kong Human Rights & Democracy Act, first introduced by China hawk Sen Marco Rubio, would require an annual review of whether the city is sufficiently autonomous from China & sanction officials who commit human rights violations against protesters.  "China will take strong opposing measures, and the US has to bear all the consequences," the Chinese foreign ministry said after the bill was passed.  The bill's passage in the Senate came after the House passed its own version last month & prompted outcry & swift condemnation from Beijing.  "We urge the U.S. to immediately take measures to prevent the case from becoming a law, immediately stop interfering with Hong Kong affairs and stop interfering in China's internal affairs," Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang told reporters.  Hong Kong, a former British colony, was returned to China in 1997 under an agreement known as "one country, two systems," which allowed the city to retain a "high-degree of autonomy" for 50 years.  The agreement expires in 2047.  Concerns about overt Chinese influence in Hong Kong have heightened in recent months, as protests -- triggered this summer by a now-shelved extradition bill, but which have since morphed broader calls for reform -- have grown increasingly violent.  Protests, now in their 5th month, descended into some of the worst violence yet this week as activists clashed with police, who laid a days-long siege to a university campus.  Since the siege began Sun, more than 1K people were arrested & hundreds of injured treated at hospitals.

China vows retaliation after US Senate backs Hong Kong protesters


With the state of US-China trade talks fluid day by day, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross described the negotiating process right now as in the "fine-tuning" stage.  "Clearly, we think there's some hope. We are optimistic we can get something done," Ross said.  He also stressed that when it comes to negotiating with China, it knows Pres Trump "means what he says and he says what he means," adding that Trump is "OK either way" if a deal doesn't.  Ross reiterated earlier comments by Trump, who yeserday made as much clear: If the trade seal with China doesn't happen, it's OK with him.  "China's got to make a deal that I like, if they don't, that's it," Trump said.  Ross admitted the papering of the deal is very important because it means the details were nailed down, but he cautioned people from prejudging the deal while it's still being worked on.  "If our negotiators felt there was no hope, they would have stopped," Ross said.  If no trade deal is agreed upon, Trump will go forward with the scheduled Dec 15 tariffs.

US-China 'fine tuning' trade deal: Wilbur Ross


Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said she wants to see how the US economy is performing before making changes to the central bank's current stance on monetary policy.  “The committee has a pretty substantial adjustment in the path of rates over the past few meetings,” Brainard said.  “It will take some time to see that work through the economy, so I certainly want to monitor and assess how the economy is reacting to those cuts.”  Brainard’s comments come ahead of the release of the minutes from the Fed's Oct meeting when they cut rates by 25 basis points for a 3rd time this year.

Fed's Lael Brainard says she wants to wait and see how economy is doing before moving rates again

Stocks are not doing much of anything with the goings on in DC getting some attention.  The China deal is more important for the stock market.  A proposed meeting to sign phase 1 of a US-China trade deal in Chile was called off for political reasons.  Another meeting has not been arranged & seemingly there is little urgency to schedule one.  The Hong Kong story remains a very dark cloud overhanging the trade deal. 

Dow Jones Industrials








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