Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Markets rally, extending yesterday's advance

Dow surged 462, advancers over decliners an impressive 4-1 & NAZ rose 151.  The MLP index jumped up 4 to the 205s & the REIT index added 3+ to the 414s (nearing record highs).  Junk bond funds (stocks with high yields) edged higher & Treasuries were sold, bringing higher yields.  Oil was fractionally higher above 50 & gold sank 25 while stocks rallied.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil50.65
+0.54+1.1%

GC=FGold   1,561.40
-21.00-1.3%






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Pres Trump's chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow said exports in the "phase one" trade deal with China will take longer because of the coronavirus.  "It is true the 'phase one' trade deal, the export boom from that trade deal, will take longer because of the Chinese virus," Kudlow added.  "On the other hand, the North American trade deal, USMCA, is going to unlock tremendous investment ... Manufacturers will benefit."  But Kudlow was optimistic about the overall impact of the virus on the US economy.  "The U.S. economic impact is going to be minimal," Kudlow said.  "This is all iffy. There's a lot of information we don't know."  China's loss could be the US's gain, he said.  "This may spur some business investment. Equipment and inventories were very, very low, as you may know, in the last GDP report, so you may get a step up in production here in the U.S., which would be very beneficial," Kudlow continued.  Kudlow addressed fears that US manufacturers will face hurdles if they can't get the components they need from China.  "It's not across the board," he said.  "Chipmakers are not going to be affected that much. Pharmaceutical stuff will probably be affected much more. Some things kind of in the middle when you get to automobiles and auto parts, but there's a lot we don't know. It sounds like the world has stopped. The world hasn't stopped."  The coronavirus, which has sickened more than 20K & killed 425, has brought parts of China to a standstill as more than 40M have been put under lockdown.

Kudlow: Deadly outbreak will take toll on exports under phase one China deal


Stocks rallied, building on solid gains from the previous session as the market recovers from a steep sell-off that was sparked by worries over the coronavirus.  The Dow traded 450 points higher (1.6%) & the S&P 500 gained 1.4% along with the NAZ.  Stocks that have been hit by fears of the coronavirus slowing the economy bounced today.  The Dow fell 600 (2.1%) on Fri & yesterday, the average bounced back by 144 points, or 0.5%.  Today's continued bounce comes after a report said China's central bank could cut its key lending rate as well as banks' reserve requirement ratios (RRRs) in the coming weeks to support economic growth.  The report came a day after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) unveiled liquidity injection measures to the tune of more than 1T yuan.  The PBOC also injected another 400B yuan in liquidity.   Chinese stocks jumped sharply overnight after a massive slump yesterday.  The Shanghai Composite closed 1.3% higher while the Shenzhen A Shares index gained 1.8%.  Other equity indices in the region, including Hong Kong's Hang Seng & the Korean Kospi, also posted strong gains.  That positive sentiment spilled over into European equity markets.  The Stoxx 600 index gained 1.1%.  Meanwhile, the German Dax climbed 1.2%& the France CAC 40 advanced 1.3%.

Stocks rally for a second day in a row with the Dow jumping 450 points

Macy's (M) has watched its shares lose well over ½ their value in the past 5 years.  Officers of the embattled department store chain will meet with investors tomorrow at the NYSE.  During the presentation, Macy's has to prove its plans to lure shoppers are working & that it can return to growing sales & earnings.  While the dropoff in its 2019 holiday sales wasn't as bad as some had feared, it was still a decline.  And it came as Macy's has been experimenting with initiatives aimed at boosting sales, such as growing Backstage, its off-price business, & getting into resale clothing.  How much of a contribution these efforts are making isn’t clear.  Meanwhile, competitive brands are increasingly pushing to sell directly to consumers thru their own stores & websites, thereby reducing their reliance on department stores for sales.  People are making fewer & fewer trips to shopping malls, & that has hurt department stores.  The category saw sales fall 1.8% from Nov 1 thru Dec 24, according to Mastercard Spending Pulse.  And apparel sales are struggling.  Consumers are spending less money on clothes, buying fewer items & making use of secondhand, rental or subscription services.  Macy's also faces heightened competition in the home category.  Same-store sales fell 0.6% at its owned & licensed stores during Nov-Dec, which wasn’t as large of a drop as analysts had anticipated.  The stock rose 38¢.
If you would like to learn more about Macy's, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/M?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Macy’s needs to show investors it has a plan to get back to sales growth

Buyers are have returned & they are bargain hunting.  This is difficult to figure since major problems, starting with the coronavirus scare, have not gone away.  Risky stocks are aggressively being purchased & that money is coming from selling safe haven gold.  Currently, the Dow is about 500 under its recent record high.

Dow Jones Industrials








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